Tango01 | 03 Mar 2015 3:32 p.m. PST |
"The bloody conflict in Syria—which enters its fifth year this month—has killed almost 200,000 people, created 3.2 million refugees, and given rise to the murderous extremist group known as the Islamic State. The roots of the civil war extend deep into Syria's political and socioeconomic structures. But another cause turns out to be global warming. When violence erupted in Syria during the Arab Spring in 2011, the country had been mired in a three-year drought—its worst in recorded history. Government agricultural policies had led to an overreliance on rain, so desperate farmers had to turn to well water—and they ended up sucking most of the country's groundwater reserves dry. What happened next upended the country. "A lot of these farmers picked up their families, abandoned their villages, and went en masse to urban areas," says Colin Kelley, a climate scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara and author of a new paper on the conflict. Add 1.5 million refugees fleeing the US-led invasion of Iraq, and the population of Syrian cities grew by 50 percent between 2002 and 2010. The influx led to illegal settlements, rampant unemployment, and inequality. But the government hardly did anything in response (corruption didn't help, nor did the fact that the hardest-hit areas were populated by Kurdish minorities, who have long been discriminated against and ignored). Soon, frustrations boiled over. The drought didn't cause the violence—it just made Syria susceptible. But what's more important here is that the drought, Kelley found, was severe likely because of human-caused global warming. It's behind the drop in precipitation researchers have seen since 1930, the beginning of the data record. The researchers compared two climate models of the region: one that included the warming effects of greenhouse gases and one that didn't. They found that in the model with global warming, severe, multiyear droughts like the one that preceded the Syrian uprising were two to three times more common than in the other model. A statistical analysis of the data also showed that the long-term trends of rising temperatures and drier climate make droughts more likely and severe. While it's impossible to link global warming to this particular drought, climate change makes such droughts much more probable. "Climate change isn't causing it by itself," Kelley says. "But if you combine it with all the preexisting factors, it can multiply that threat."…" Full article here link Amicalement Armand |
rmaker | 03 Mar 2015 3:48 p.m. PST |
What a load of hogwash – but consider the source. Wired is no more accurate than Weekly World News or any of the other tabloids. |
Vosper | 03 Mar 2015 3:48 p.m. PST |
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javelin98 | 03 Mar 2015 4:25 p.m. PST |
Exactly, Vosper. Personally, I blame El Niño, Martians, the infield-fly rule, teacup poodles, Uwe Boll, the 93rd Congress, magnetic pole shifts, Microsoft Vista, gastric ulcers, and the CIA. Also, someone swiped my tinfoil hat… |
SouthernPhantom | 03 Mar 2015 4:55 p.m. PST |
*gigglesnort* Nice to see the usual bunch of wannabe Internet intellectuals spewing more drivel. |
Legion 4 | 03 Mar 2015 4:57 p.m. PST |
What ?!?!? |
Mako11 | 03 Mar 2015 5:05 p.m. PST |
Thanks Armand, I needed a good belly laugh today! |
Lou from BSM | 03 Mar 2015 5:12 p.m. PST |
I know why they're all P'd off… it's flippin hot over there!!! When I was in Kandahar we were on the tail end of a streak at 125F. I wanted to blow things up!!! I was hot, angry, dehydrated, covered in dust, and weighed down with a ton of gear (well, ~100lbs, but you get my point). Enough with the foreign and arming both sides… we need to plant a few thousand shade Oaks… that ought to calm them down a bit!!! |
Katzbalger | 03 Mar 2015 5:30 p.m. PST |
And lord knows that part of the world has never had a drought before…so it must be climate change. On a wargaming note, has anyone done an insurrection game that depended upon a large population of poor folk that were not knowledgeable about the area in which they were operating in? Usually, games I've seen assume that the rebels have the advantage of knowing the local terrain better than the gubmint, but this suggests that it could have been the reverse in many instances in Syria (at least early on). Rob |
M1911Colt | 03 Mar 2015 6:23 p.m. PST |
When I was little, we found a man. He looked like… like, butchered. The old woman in the village crossed themselves… and whispered crazy things – strange things. "El Diablo cazador de hombres." Only in the hottest years this happens – and this year, it grows hot. We begin finding our men. We found them sometimes without their skins… and sometimes much, much worse. …"El caza trofeos de los hombres" means "the demon who makes trophies of men". |
darthfozzywig | 03 Mar 2015 6:37 p.m. PST |
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Prince Alberts Revenge | 03 Mar 2015 7:20 p.m. PST |
My own 2 cents, I think drought had a good amount setting this off. Throughout history, weather and resource shortages have sparked war. Not so sure why it still wouldn't be the case. |
Mako11 | 03 Mar 2015 7:21 p.m. PST |
It has nothing to do with politics, it's science, kyote. As mentioned, there've been many droughts, floods, and temperature fluctuations throughout the history of the Earth, and I suspect most are due to the variable output from our closest star, the Sun. Back in the 1930s, people used to drive trucks across the Albemarle Sound on the ice there, which today, never freezes, and in the 1960s, the pundits were all in a tizzy over the coming "ice age". So, two great examples of periodic fluctuations in temps that occur pretty regularly. I suspect the people in upstate NY, and Boston think they're living in a new ice age as well, given the snowfall they've had thus far this Winter. We just don't want to be taxed to death for temperature fluctuations, and ridiculous, onerous regulations. As some have pointed out, even if we stopped ALL emissions in the USA, the net difference at the end of this century will work out to be about 0.8 degrees Fahrenheit. "Climate Change" is just a scam to get control over energy, like they've done with healthcare, so they can gain a new revenue stream from taxation, since "the beast" is never satiated, even when tax receipts are the highest they've ever been in history. "Energy prices will have to necessarily skyrocket…". Tax and spend policies of the last 50 years have been a total failure, as you can see from all the people that are out of work, and having to survive on foodstamps. |
Only Warlock | 03 Mar 2015 8:58 p.m. PST |
Global warming turned me into a Newt!!! …I got better. |
skippy0001 | 03 Mar 2015 9:34 p.m. PST |
I'm 62, live in Upstate NY and I am amazed at the reaction to this winter. It's normal. I grew up in worst weather. The mid west and South can blame Russia/Canada/Jet Stream for their woes. Plus the fact they are never prepared for what we normally get. I also remember a winter in the 90's where it was 66 degrees in February-we barbecued. We had also missed 11 major storms in a row. The Jetstream was 'kinked' over our valley for a while(Mohawk Valley). The good thing about this winter is the replenishment of groundwater. Other countries won't have a good summer. |
mandt2 | 04 Mar 2015 12:14 a.m. PST |
It is quite obvious to me that few if any of you skeptics here have taken the time to read anything about climate science. And yet all speak as if you are experts, or have it on good authority. The facts are easy to find. Start here: link link link link …and finally here: link This must be the fourth or fifth thread on climate change this year, and in every single one I see the same skeptics making the same snarky unsubstantiated comments that I see here and try to pass them off as fact. I have posted these and other links to recognized scientific sources over and over again. There is no excuse for anyone to enter a discussion on AGW and be so completely ignorant of the subject other than a preconceived bias and just plain laziness, no matter what side you are on. If you are going to argue against climate change, at least sound like you know something about what you are talking about. At least produce some facts to either support your opinion, or refute the other. |
mandt2 | 04 Mar 2015 12:24 a.m. PST |
rmaker- What a load of hogwash – but consider the source. Wired is no more accurate than Weekly World News or any of the other tabloids. You are right. Consider the source. Oh, I don't mean "Wired." You have to click the links to the research papers that the story is referring to. Tango's story looks to be pretty sound. |
coopman | 04 Mar 2015 5:17 a.m. PST |
The biggest pack of lies ever inflicted on mankind. It's a global wealth redistribution scheme, that's all. They're basically saying "Give us all your money and we'll save the world from this problem". |
Rufus T Firefly | 04 Mar 2015 7:25 a.m. PST |
Within ten years AGW will be proven to be the biggest scientific hoax since the Piltdown Man. |
SouthernPhantom | 04 Mar 2015 8:16 a.m. PST |
^ I can hardly agree more. The sheer quantity of falsified data is nothing short of disturbing. |
Legion 4 | 04 Mar 2015 9:15 a.m. PST |
Yes … LOL Colt ! And lets admit it … regardless of the veracity of AGW, etc. … The Syrians and their various local and visiting factions don't need bad weather as a reason to kill each other … |
javelin98 | 04 Mar 2015 9:42 a.m. PST |
Also, the reaction of many to the hypocrisy of the wealthy and elite who live high lifestyles with huge carbon footprints yet find it necessary to lecture us mere peons on how energy should be used. How many mansions in how many places does one need? 1700 private jets at Davos? The classic pic of the musician, tweeting about global warming…on a private jet…alone? They make it pretty clear it is the flavor of the month cause because it is popular among their crowd, but despite their self-righteous speaking down to us lesser beings they have no intention of walking the walk. Even if there is AGW, these buffoons set up the condition for the sort of responses seen here and elsewhere. Bravo, Terrement! We should create an award for environmental hypocrisy called the "Albert Gore Do-As-I-Say-Not-As-I-Do Award". We could hold an annual ceremony and call it the Gories! |
Lion in the Stars | 04 Mar 2015 12:17 p.m. PST |
My own 2 cents, I think drought had a good amount setting this off. Throughout history, weather and resource shortages have sparked war. Not so sure why it still wouldn't be the case. Agreed. A bad harvest will cause all sorts of troubles, even in the US. And the West is looking to have a really bad drought this year. |
Tango01 | 04 Mar 2015 12:21 p.m. PST |
Mako 11… a votre service mon cher ami!. (smile) Amicalement Armand |
doug redshirt | 04 Mar 2015 12:29 p.m. PST |
They are calling the drought in the west a megadrought. Justb going off of historical cycles. Going by past records it will last 30 years. So dont rush to buy homes in Arizona. Also just read that the gulf stream has slowed. This has happened in the past when large amounts of fresh water has melted off of Greenland and north America. Just think how nice the United Kingdom and Germany will be without the gulf stream to moderate the temperature. |
Mako11 | 04 Mar 2015 1:18 p.m. PST |
coopman has it exactly right. Sorry, mandt2, but the jig is up, and it has been confirmed that a lot of those "independent scientists" have cooked the books, and/or cherry-picked the data to back up their assertions, just like they tried to do with the scare of the "coming ice age" back in the 1960s. It's all about people, money, and taxes, and the control of it/them, to further the power-hungry aspirations of the socialists/communists/progressives. If the GW cronies were really so worried about it, they'd demolish those large mansions, sell off their fleet of SUVs, stop flying around the globe on jets, and refrain from spewing excess carbon across their moving lips. Of course, they won't do that, since it's the old, elite tactic of do as I say, not as I do. |
GROSSMAN | 04 Mar 2015 2:24 p.m. PST |
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Coelacanth1938 | 04 Mar 2015 10:41 p.m. PST |
We passed the point of no return on global warming a decade ago. We're a dying people on a dying planet and I for one will engage in hollow pursuits with a clear conscious because I was one of those people who tried to warn you. |
Barin1 | 04 Mar 2015 11:48 p.m. PST |
Russian meteorology Buro has reported the warmest winter since they've started keeping records, i.e. ca 150 years. Still lots of snow this year too.It seems that we can get less continental climate… |
Tango01 | 05 Mar 2015 10:39 a.m. PST |
That's interesting to read my friend. Amicalement Armand |
Cacique Caribe | 07 Mar 2015 10:06 p.m. PST |
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Weasel | 08 Mar 2015 10:33 a.m. PST |
Internet politics is pretty funny. People have Pavlov'ian responses. |