"Russian Snap Drills a Ruse for a Real Invasion?" Topic

The Russians have been running a lot of snap drills of late, and some think they are to lull NATO into complacency, so they can carry out a real invasion, in places like the Baltic States:

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I agree with that assessment, given all the lip-service being bandied about that Russia is the greatest power in the world (really 2nd in absolute power, but currently 1st in the ability to use it), and talk of their nukes.

Clearly, the small, Baltic nations are worried, and even a British general has come out and openly said that the UK is very vulnerable to an attack by Russia. I suspect even Bulgaria, and other former Soviet nations, and/or "allies" have a lot to worry about as well.

Poland has openly said as much, and is significantly increasing its defense spending.

My guess is that given the situation in Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine, and the reticence of the EU and others to take any real steps to address that, Putin senses weakness (quite correctly), so will continue to press his advantage.

I also suspect that he's willing to gamble that NATO/EU will/can do little to protect the smaller, Baltic nations, and that he's hoping to cause NATO to fracture, to punish the EU for "supporting" the Ukrainian uprising just one year ago.

Clearly, there are numerous precedents for that type of action, during the Soviet era, and afterwards (Georgia, Crimea, and now, Eastern Ukraine).

At the very least, it is certainly an interesting subject for some hypothetical wargaming, and no doubt the real, professional "wargamers" are probably working overtime on the subject.

I'd much prefer they play out on the tabletop, or in a computer simulation, rather than real life.

Hopefully, I will be proved wrong.

being overrun by the Russians might not be a bad thing with the current state of our Government? ;-)

Think its all bluff and bluster, knowing that NATO wouldn't actually strike first, but it's a dangerous game sailing closer to the line and has resulting in accidental conflict in the past.

And with Russian media now running away too….

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"Nuclear war is the ultimate, unthinkable catastrophe. But in some sections of the Russian media it is being viewed as a realistic possibility and even something to be embraced.

"Why are you all so afraid of nuclear war? Why are you afraid of nuclear war?" presenter Aleksey Gudoshnikov asked listeners to the pro-Kremlin station Govorit Moskva last month.

He went on to say that people had survived the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, and that these were actually not as destructive as the bombing of Dresden some six months earlier.

"This fear of nuclear war is exaggerated, in my view," the 26-year-old Gudoshnikov concluded.

26… right.

Perhaps more disturbingly…

In a talkshow on Gazprom-Media's NTV on 25 January, pro-Putin pundit Sergey Markov said the West was preparing the ground for the "elimination of the Russian people as an entity in world history".

It's that sort of paranoia that starts wars, out of fear for something that would probably never actually happen, but an offensive defence is taken… just in case.

It depends how much of a gambler Putin is. Is he prepared to push his luck to secure his position against revolution at home?

As someone said in another thread, America need to honour there commitments or what happens to their other alliances? Dead in the water and they no longer have international credibility. Same with all NATO countries really.

"Why are you all so afraid of nuclear war? Why are you afraid of nuclear war?"

Um, where to begin?

26 years old, and probably never faced any threat more dangerous than his yearly review.

Just more sabre-rattling.

As long as those who're over 30 live, they know what is the result of nuclear war. On the other hand, our president is a chief in command, and he doesn't really need to take into account punlic opinion.
Still, it was clear in Soviet times, and is still clear now, that any "limited" usage of nukes may result in nuclear armageddon.
This is still in DNA of the majority of Russian population.

However, as Russia is lacking in convenient weapons/fleet/airforce, nuclear arsenal is foreseen as a deterrent. While there were some discussions, that new doctrine will be including a concept of pre-emptive nuclear strike, it never happened. Of course, it doesn't mean that our generals are not considering any other plans…same as in the HQ of the potential opponents.

Invade how and with what? While there are two armies and associated units in that military district most are understrength, poorly trained, and would have severe logistical issues getting ready for any kind of major Baltic invasion. Russian forces are way behind in modernization, are missing large numbers of armored vehicles, have little to no battlefield intelligence capability, and other problems too numerous to mention here. It would take a massive effort to get everything into place for a Baltic invasion scenario that would easily be spotted by NATO as forces and supplies would need to be moved in from all over Russia.

I just don't get why gamers here on TMP can't get over the 1980's view of Russia and the Warsaw Pact. There isn't going to be any sudden "tactical surprise" scenario with huge armored groups crossing over into Germany supported by massive air strikes and naval forces sortieing out to engage NATO navies. The Russian fleets can barely get any ships or subs out to sea now as it is. For the first time in its history there are more operational NATO tanks than there are Russian ones as most of theirs have been relegated to storage. It would take quite some time to get them out of storage, refurbished, then shipped by train to any possible combat zone.

I guess I could see that. A quick invasion that occupies of three countries before NATO or the US can react would be in line with Putin's taking of Crimea. Once occupied would the West start a war to free them? Probably not. The question would be could Russia overrun the Baltics in, say, a week?

It might only happen in case of full isolation of Russia, North Korea style. Even if NATO not reacting, I guess the consequences of this invasion may be bad for our current situation in economy, as the gain is negligible. Moreover, you can talk of 20-30% support of locals, in the best case – as even significant part of ethnic Russians are quite happy to leave in EU.

They do have considerable freedom and financial advantages for being there. Could they take it? Possibly. Would it do anything? Well it would be an economic, social and political disaster for Russia for decades to come.

We now know from declassified documents (and here I miss Allen C) that the 'Soviet threat' was hyped up and that in fact both sides were playing a deterrant defensive card while claming the other side was preparing to attack at any time.

On the other hand, as over 50 years of James Bond has shown us, it only takes one renegade general… :-)

Russia should be looking East. China is a huge problem for them even though it is making nice to Russia now. Why they fixed so much on the West is puzzling .

The NATO air policing presence in the Baltic States is not only a tool for intercepting Russian incursions. It's primarily there as a statement of intent: "Attack them and you attack NATO as a whole".

I'm cooking Bacon as a ruse to cooking Pork Sausages.
Note how I used capitals for the subject matter, yes its a very important significance subject.
BTW saw the yearly military exercises of joint military US/Korea beach landing exercises. Er? Beach landings? Isn't that an attack strategy?

BTW saw the yearly military exercises of joint military US/Korea beach landing exercises. Er? Beach landings? Isn't that an attack strategy?

I suppose that depends on what the definition of 'attack' is. Was Inchon an 'attack' on N. Koreans who happened to be in S.Korea, or was it an act in defense of unwillingly occupied S.Korea? Was Normandy an attack on Germany, or was it an attempt to free occupied France?

our president is a chief in command, and he doesn't really need to take into account public opinion.

Democracy in action!

Not trying to understand the other, his views, history and worries is a clear mistake in diplomacy and the "west" is again neglecting this with the usual arrogance.

The agreements of the early 90s have been trampled upon, with abandon by the old timers whose continuing earnings and "usefulness" relies on maintaining that quasi soviet fear. On the other side, mostly unfounded paranoia is fierce (I go there a lot) but somewhat understandable given their history and traumas of which scale no western country least the US has any idea.

It is in French but absolutely top notch
guy is former top French intelligence and then in strategic counselling corp.
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dragon-first-1.livejournal.com

and this one on some of the rebels/traitors/freedom fighters/…
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Possibly to get more than the common mantra. remember how we got abundantly fed the "official truth" in 2003… It does not mean all is wrong.. nor right.

The Russian fleets can barely get any ships or subs out to sea now as it is.

The Russian Baltic Fleet doesn't seem to have gotten this message since they sortied pretty much every ship they had (50+) back in December 2014. And they have been putting to sea with Surface Action Groups and Amphibious Task Forces regularly throughout 2014. (Not to mention all the single ship and small group excercises carried out)
Subs are a bit harder to keep track of but someones subs were poking around in Swedish waters at least two times during the Autumn of 2014

Now the Baltic Fleet won't be laying claim to the Atlantic anytime soon but in local terms it has gone from being a almost a non-player to a significant force. (More so given the problems the Germans seem to be facing with the readiness of their armed forces)

I guess it depends upon the articles that you read whether or not their fleet is very good or not. The few sources I've seen don't speak very highly of their capabilities. Could be wrong, but I just don't see them trying anything major.

As many as four Russian subs are believed to have been in Swedish waters in January.