"Ukraine Ceasefire Is Crumbling" Topic

"Kiev accused pro-Russian rebels of opening fire with rockets and artillery at villages in southeastern Ukraine on Monday, all but burying a week-old European-brokered ceasefire deal.

The Ukrainian military said it could not pull weapons from the front as required under the tenuous truce, as long as its troops were still under attack.

Ukraine's currency, nearly in freefall this month, fell a further 10 percent on Monday on fears that the truce could collapse…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

There was really no ceasefire, from what I've been able to tell, half a world away.

About the only success has been an exchange of prisoners, and the Russian-backed side getting a little time to redeploy those heavy, rocket artillery batteries to new locations.

The West is going to sell weapons to Ukraine.
The rebels and Russia are going to negotiate.
The West won't give weapons to Ukraine because they are negotiating.
The rebels and Russia agree to a cease fire.
The rebels don't actually stop fighting.
The West won't give up hope because the rebels won a huge victory and so might implement the cease fire.
So the war continues and the West is still not sending weapons to Ukraine.

An important aspect to warfare is the maneuvering off the battlefield. It can cause uncertainty, restrictions on rules of engagement, and a lack of supplies and equipment. My wargame group played a series of Third World games where the Government was continually promised supplies, weapons and even intervention that never came in some games or came despite assurances it would not happen, if the intervention was in opposition to the Government.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek
Bunker Talk blog

AND, as I predicted a while back, and an expert suggests today, it appears Putin and his army are going to get that land-bridge to Crimea after all.

My wife is from Ukraine and I've been talking to her family and friends(who are still in Ukraine) over the last few months and several interesting theories have come up. Firstly, no one in Ukraine believes the west has any intention of seriously supporting Ukraine if things continue to escalate. Secondly, since Russia has decided to ignore their previous agreement to recognize Ukraine's borders Ukraine is now within it's rights to rebuild it's nuclear arsenal. Further, some of my wife's friends here in Canada who are originally from Poland and the Baltic states said that few believe Nato will come to their aid should Putin make moves on them. Does not say much for our reputation in eastern Europe. If that happens and Nato does nothing I think were all screwed. Joe

The funny thing is, my wife and most of her family and friends are ethnically Russian growing up in the Soviet Union in a mostly Russian city. Having said that they are very angry about what is happening in Ukraine and think Putin is largely to blame for most of it and want the rebel and Russian troops out. As they have said to me, let Ukraine solve it's own problem

If it wasn't for a very porous border, I think Ukraine would have solved it's own problem a long time ago. My impressions are pretty much the same, they see the fault as falling on Putin for (at best) turning a blind eye to 'tourists' and not closing the border entirely, in both directions, or (at worst) actively sending in military units while denying it with his other face. I think the issues at home are much worse than he would like the domestic population to think.

They would still be in a financial mess, but at least they would have been spending it on stabilisation rather than defence.

I can see the failure of Russia to bide by the Budapest Memorandum as having much greater repercussions than just Ukraine. Who is now going to consider giving up nuclear weapons against an offer of guaranteed territorial security?

On the whole it is holding.

There are reports of sporadic shelling near Donetsk airport, but it's occasional rather than continuous. There are suggestions that it is because separatist units have been pulled out of Donetsk/Debaltseve region now and are being located south. There are certainly reports of more frequent engagements around the villages in the south, but even there they seem like skirmishes and the occasional shell than full on fighting… so far.

In Donetsk they marked 'Defender of the Fatherland' an old Soviet holiday: link

"In Ukraine Defender of the Fatherland Day was never celebrated as a state holiday. In 1999 Kuchma recognized 23 February as Defenders of the Fatherland Day, but Poroshenko removed it in October last year as "Ukraine should not celebrate the holidays of the military-historical calendar of Russia… [We] will honor the defenders of our homeland, not someone else's."

Footage from Donetsk:
link

Could be me, but a lot of upward pointing cameras and closeups. The 'crowd' looked to be perhaps 200-300. 500 tops. Donetsk has a peacetime population of just under 1 million. Even if we account for 50% evacuation, that's not a lot of people present…

"Firstly, no one in Ukraine believes the west has any intention of seriously supporting Ukraine if things continue to escalate."

True.

"Secondly, since Russia has decided to ignore their previous agreement to recognize Ukraine's borders Ukraine is now within it's [sic] rights to rebuild it's [sic] nuclear arsenal."

True.

"Further, some of my wife's friends here in Canada who are originally from Poland and the Baltic states said that few believe Nato will come to their aid should Putin make moves on them."

Their insight depends largely on how recently they emigrated, but to the extent NATO has lost credibility, it's mostly Germany's fault. Putin has consistently played Merkel and got what he wanted from Germany. Merkel coming back from Moscow was like Chamberlain coming back from Munich.

I can see the failure of Russia to bide by the Budapest Memorandum as having much greater repercussions than just Ukraine. Who is now going to consider giving up nuclear weapons against an offer of guaranteed territorial security?

Nobody. Then again, I'm surprised ANYONE would consider giving up nukes entirely.