"When Lee Begins to See the End?" Topic

Reading this article…

"Come the dawn, everything was quiet in Gouverneur Warren's front. His Fifth Corps had met with repulse and confusion the night previous, but he was slowly regaining order. "The ignorance I am under of the exact moral condition of Warren's corps, and his losses from stragglers," wrote General Meade to General Grant that morning, "has restrained me from giving him positive orders to attack; but I have directed him to push out strong reconnaissances and his knowledge of the state of his command [will allow him to decide] whether to attack or not."

Though the fight had been considerably not in favor of the Federals, Grant wasn't dismayed. What he wanted more than anything was to extend the entrenchments. "We should hold permanently out to Hatcher's Run," he relayed, "fortifying as you think best, but destroying no works already made." The ground gained should be kept and the troops should dig in.

The weather was yet again abysmal, and Grant thought it best that Meade move the troops to where he thought they should establish a more permanent line. He wanted to further attacks by Warren, "unless promising great advantages to us." Grant was planning a trip to Washington, having been summonsed to appear before the Committee on the Conduct of the War. However, he didn't want to leave the front until Meade's troops were entrenched. Since he wanted to leave the next day, it was heavily implied to Meade that he should dig in immediately. "I hardly think it will be by to-morrow," came Meade's response, "as I have some works to erect before I can unmass the forces on the left."…"
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Wonder to know if there is documentation prior to this date where General Lee expressed his opinion about an upcoming defeat by the Confederation.

Thanks in advance for your guidance.

Amicalement
Armand

IMHO, Lee saw the beginning of the end in the late afternoon of July 3rd 1863, and the news of July 4th 1863, started to confirm what he was seeing….

After that it was just fighting for time…and hope…

Actually it is before July 3rd. Lee states his reasons for invading the North in the Summer of 1863 in a report to Jeff Davis, one of the major rationales is that the South's ability to survive the war establish their independence is fading fast.

^^^ concur.

One of the best resources any gamer could have is "The Wartime Papers of R.E.Lee" It is full of his correspondence to not only Jefferson Davis, but to his commanders, other officers, and also to his sons and his wife. It's an amazing look into his psyche during the war. It also includes his AAR's for the various campaigns, including both the rationale for the campaign, his approach to it, and his summation as to results achieved, etc.

His final report is also interesting because he notes that although his troops sometimes suffered from shortages of rations and proper clothing, they never suffered for ammunition or medical supplies.

Comparing his accounts with surviving reports of the various Confederate arsenals, depots and departments, it paints a picture entirely at odds with the tired "Ragged, rugged, rebel, barefoot and starving, with Grampa's squirrel gun, etc"

V/R

Basically, the Confederate Quartermaster Corps was a lot more efficient that its Commissary of Subsistence.

Thanks for the comments boys.
So, he knew from the first day…

Amicalement
Armand

So, he knew from the first day…

Oh, yeah. Anyone could do the math. It wasn't a secret.

I think both sides underestimated the other side's resolve to fight on despite defeats and losses. Even after Gettysburg, Lee seemed to be hopeful, if not optimistic. Only after being pinned around Richmond/Petersburg all winter of '64-5, the failure of Early's Shenandoah campaign, and the re-election of LIncoln did he definitely see the handwriting on the wall.

Well, hopeful is not the same as ignoring reality. Interpreting it is something else.

One reason Grant made all those desperate attacks around Cold Harbor is that more Rebels were surrendering out of 'hopelessness' over the military situation.

Lee fought on because of all the anti-war sentiment booming out from Union newspapers [and the new waves of reluctant Union draftees] and the November 1864 elections. The wails of anguish over the death toll of the Wilderness battles also were encouraging.

I have read a few opinions in other books that he never thought the South could win an outright victory. He was always hopeing to fight until a draw or stalemate could result in a negociated peace treaty with the Union.

This was one of the reasons that his original assignment was to build fortifications around Virginia rather than giving him a field command immediately.

One may "see the end" but so what?

Clausewitz said "No other activity of human beings is so much under the domain of chance than war."

In Thucydides "The Peloponnesian Wars" there is a moment when the Athenian Envoys appear at Sparta to urge the Spartans not to involve themselves in he Corcyrean War. They say "Do not be too0 hasty in involving yourself in the affairs of others. Remember while there is still time the inscrutable nature of war, and how, when prolonged it often ends as a matter of mere chance."

Lee might have seen the end, but he fought on because there was always a chance, always a possibility that chance might offer an opportunity next week, next month, next year. You never knew. Frederick the Great in the Seven years War "saw the end coming" quite clearly in 1760 after Torgau. Who knew Tzarina Elizabeth would die and put on the throne Peter I his most groveling worshipper in all the world.

Washington saw the end quite clearly at Valley Forge, but he held on and held on hoping for chance. Who knew the British were going to lose the battle of the Capes.