Mako11 | 03 Dec 2014 3:32 p.m. PST |
Saw on the news last night that they were finally talking about this. Apparently, it's an open secret that Russian Spetznatz and other forces are in Moldova, and the general thought that Estonia is at risk as well to being "Crimea'd", since 40% of the population there is Russian. Also in the news is mention that Putin may have to put off some of his military weapons program plans, due to the falling price of oil. Not sure if that will effect the new "mobile nuclear missile trains", or not, which are expected to come on line by 2019. Finally, some talking heads are mentioning that Putin may become even more desperate/dangerous, as he is backed into a corner, in order to distract his people from the falling ruble, etc. So, just curious to see if others think Moldova is the next domino to fall, or if Russia's expansion will be in another region? I hear a lot of the southern former Soviet provinces may be in play as well, through the use of both the carrot and stick approach. |
cwlinsj | 03 Dec 2014 3:59 p.m. PST |
Of course Putin needs Moldova, he keeps his 10k+ bottle wine collection in the caves there! In reality, Russia just needs to maintain influence over Moldove by supporting the break-away state of Transnistria. This also keeps pressure on Western Ukraine and makes NATO feel impotent as well. Taking full control? No need as It would only make Russia responsible for that country's rotten economy and people. |
Deadone | 03 Dec 2014 4:07 p.m. PST |
I agree with cwlinsj – the presence of Russians in Transnistria effectively cripples the Moldovan government ability to act. I don't think Putin will be tangling with Estonia or Latvia. NATO has already warned the Russians about interfering there even with "hybird warfare." I doubt Putin wants a war with NATO as there is no chance of victory. |
Black Bull | 03 Dec 2014 4:14 p.m. PST |
Ethnic Russian make up 20% or so of the Estonian population it only gets up to 40% in Tallinn and Narva. |
cwlinsj | 03 Dec 2014 4:34 p.m. PST |
…and, not every ethnic Russian wants to be ruled by Russia. Estonia is a member of the EU, they use the Euro there. Their economy is tied to the EU and Scandinavia. Estonia is called the Baltic Tiger for it's bustling economy, low Govt. debt, it produces almost all of its energy needs… and the ethic Russians mostly live in the big cities and enjoy high incomes. They don't exactly want Putin or the sound of Russian boots ruining their lives. |
Mako11 | 03 Dec 2014 5:57 p.m. PST |
I can see where Russia would like to maintain a strong influence, without the downside of funding the satellite countries. |
Rhino Co | 03 Dec 2014 8:20 p.m. PST |
Russia could stand a chance against a fractured NATO if major troop contributing nations were otherwise occupied or had internal unrest to contend with. It is feasible if at any point the russians think they can win, they feel they have the edge in surprise, little to lose or can fixate their public on an externalized enemy to solidify or maintain their power base. |
Deadone | 03 Dec 2014 8:56 p.m. PST |
Russia could stand a chance against a fractured NATO if major troop contributing nations were otherwise occupied or had internal unrest to contend with. As soon as USA commits to the fight, it's over for Russia. USA is 70% of NATO numbers and probably closer to 90% of its expeditionary warfare, logistics, long range strike etc etc. |
Mako11 | 03 Dec 2014 11:36 p.m. PST |
That won't happen in the next two years, at the very least. Not sure I'm convinced the EU nations, or the USA will go to war to protect Estonia, even though the charter says we will. The general seemed inclined to side with me on that, and thinks a move there by Putin might fracture NATO, irrevocably. If there's even the chance of that happening, I suspect Putin will make a play to do that, since he despises NATO. The next two years will certainly be interesting. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't think so, especially if the same tactics that are being used in Ukraine are used there. |
Bangorstu | 04 Dec 2014 5:09 a.m. PST |
Has to be said the Baltic states haven't always treated their Russians very well… That said, no chance of a flashpoint ove rEstonia – if the EU wanted to, we could cripple Russia's economy in a week. Right now they're hurting and we're not eventrying that hard. |
Barin1 | 04 Dec 2014 6:07 a.m. PST |
In Moldova recent elections has shown that the population is split almost 50 to 50 between pro-european and pro-russian parties. Inside pro-european parties there's another split between the supporters of independence and supporters of joining Romania. They'll have a problem with government again, but at least they will not be able to make a stupid decision that might cause social explosion and/or unrest and civil war. Moldova is also much more difficult logistically than Ukraine. As for Estonia, I also doubt it. Even that there's plenty of Russians, some of them are more or less happy living in Europe, the others are unhappy being 2d grade citizens, but if the government is wise enough with new generation they might solve all issues with language, etc. Bangorstu, to be fair you're are not really hitting Russian economy hard – Saudi and Quatar do (as well as our own economy, oriented on oil&gas export). Reading all the media before and after OPEC summit I stand corrected – current oil price level is less a result of US plot, but more like an attempt of traditional oil exporters to get rid from some of the competition and kill shale oil production before it is too late. Therefore we should be expecting oil prices below 80 USD for at least 2 years. What it means, that Russia will be spending less on military and various border adventures… |
Bangorstu | 04 Dec 2014 10:45 a.m. PST |
Of course if Putin follows up on his boast about driving through Ukraine, logistical problems are solved….but yes, right now it's not a place where operaitons could be easily conducted. If at all given I'd imagine NATO could itnerfere much more easily there I'd imagine. Barin – I have cynical thoughts about why the oil price is so low right now….But right now we're only playing with you. As it is, all Putin has achieved is to get us to wean ourselves off gas much more quickly than planned, and to boost Polish defence spending. |
49mountain | 04 Dec 2014 11:25 a.m. PST |
Mzko 11 – I do think the US would fight to help Estonia. The Estonians are a pretty determined people and will resist the Bear. How could we not help them? |
Barin1 | 04 Dec 2014 12:43 p.m. PST |
Well if Putin gets really angry there's plenty of ways to get the money from London back home..and not only by asking politely and providing amnesty for offshore capitals. Of course, UK is not really dependent on Russian exports, but same might be said about us. The mutual dependency is eastern Europe and Germany so we're now in a match who winks first… Speaking of what hurts and what's not, our UK branch lost 14 mil USD order bcs of sanctions last month, and it is not smth they can easily brush aside… |
tuscaloosa | 04 Dec 2014 1:15 p.m. PST |
"As soon as USA commits to the fight, it's over for Russia. USA is 70% of NATO numbers and probably closer to 90% of its expeditionary warfare, logistics, long range strike etc etc." It matters less what proportion of NATO is U.S., than how the U.S. and Russia match up militarily. And fighting on Russia's doorstep gives an awfully big advantage to Russia. |
Bangorstu | 04 Dec 2014 2:07 p.m. PST |
Barin – if we froze the accounts I think some oligarchs would be annoyed… which i gues sis a problem only to Putin and his immediate friends. Of course if we played by Putins' rules it would be worth noting how many oligarchs' children are at expense schools over here….. That aside we do more trade with Ireland than russia, but the EU and the USA together I think still own you – if only because between us we can cripple any bank that does business with you. Sorry to hear you're getting inconvenienced, but it's really alas down to your government> Thanks for Russia Today though, the UK edition is hilarious. |
GeoffQRF | 04 Dec 2014 2:35 p.m. PST |
Well if Putin gets really angry there's plenty of ways to get the money from London back home..and not only by asking politely and providing amnesty for offshore capitals. You mean, like… link "Mr Putin promised an amnesty for anyone choosing to bring their money back. He said that they would face no questions over how they had earned it…" My wife (who works with money laundering) hasn't stopped laughing. Curiosu… "He insisted the "tragedy" in Ukraine's south-east had proved that Russian policy had been right but said Russia would respect its neighbour as a brotherly country." Trying to work out which policy he thinks that is… and just how much respect has been shown. |
Griefbringer | 04 Dec 2014 3:56 p.m. PST |
Ethnic Russian make up 20% or so of the Estonian population it only gets up to 40% in Tallinn and Narva. Actually, in Narva the Russian speakers tend to make around 90 % of the population. |
cwlinsj | 04 Dec 2014 7:40 p.m. PST |
That's because the Soviet Union didn't let Estonians settle in their own city after WWII, only Rooshians. But the city is dying, it has lost 25% of its population over the last 20 years and looks like it will continue to shrink. |
GeoffQRF | 04 Dec 2014 10:41 p.m. PST |
…bearing in mind that anyone who went to school prior to 1990 would have been taught Russian… |
Barin1 | 05 Dec 2014 5:00 a.m. PST |
Oligarchs had more than 6 months to take careof their investnments in Europe and US. Therefore I think you're not going to catch a lot. However, opening a case on them (as of course not only Khodorkovskyi was guilty of acquiring his welath with not-so-legal ways),seizing assets and putting them for Interpol prosecution is a different story. In this case places like Singapure\HongKong, etc are not going to save you… I guess Putin is not really considering that the capital will rush back with this amnesty – it is more like drawing a line – you can return your money, or there will be consequences. As for the lost contract, we just lost time of our engineers and salesforce, while UK plant lost revenue&production plan, UK lost taxes and exports. In the end it might cause moving the production site elsewhere to Eastern Europe and China, as happened with a lot of our UK production facicilities during last 5 years…. |
hagenthedwarf | 05 Dec 2014 5:26 a.m. PST |
USA is 70% of NATO numbers and probably closer to 90% of its expeditionary warfare, logistics, long range strike etc etc. If I remember the CBS programme from 20 years ago – THE DEFENCE OF AMERICA – correctly the NATO allies provide 70% of the airforce, 80% of navies and 90% of the armies. Of course the USA spends 40% of the world's defence budget. |
Mako11 | 05 Dec 2014 12:01 p.m. PST |
Those numbers for Europe seem overly high to me. I suspect they don't include what the USA would bring to the table, if and when a war in NATO were to break out, and only included what was stationed by the USA at the time, in Europe. |
GeoffQRF | 05 Dec 2014 12:29 p.m. PST |
Actually, other than the 60%+ in Tallin, Narva, KotlaJarve, Johvi and Sillamae, Russian ethnicity is pretty sparse for the vast majority of the territory. The national average is considerably less, about 24%. Narva is in Ida-Viru (county). The county has reported 72% Russians, although with a reported 92%+ in Narva itself this indicates a much lower proportion throughout the rest of the county. …for several years during the following reconstruction [after WW2] the Soviet authorities prohibited the return of any of Narva's pre-war residents (among whom ethnic Estonians had been the majority, forming 64.8% of the town's population of 23,512 according to the 1934 census), thus radically altering the city's ethnic composition. In some ways I am surprised that situation has not naturally subsided since the mid 1990s. |
Daniel S | 05 Dec 2014 4:28 p.m. PST |
Not that surprising, as already mentioned Narva has been in continous decline with considerable economic hardship due to the collapse of the Soviet era industries which combined with the lingering hostility towards Estonians does not exactly make it a place people moved to. Estonia is certainly taking the threat of both hybrid warfare and large scale conventional incursions seriously and is reinforcing is armed forces as much as the economy allows for, recent purchase include ex-Dutch Panzerhaubitze 2000 and CV90 IIRC together with Javelin ATGM. Recruitment into the armed forces, in particular the Defence Leauge, is at an all time high with some units effectivly doubling in size since the war in Ukraine began. |
cwlinsj | 05 Dec 2014 5:11 p.m. PST |
Estonia and the Baltic states are re-arming in the right manner to face potential Russian threats. Rather than throwing away their budget away on tanks, they will fight like the Finns did during the Winter War in 1939 by using the natural terrain of Estonia against Russia. Estonia is mostly forest, lakes and marshes. Good for infantry with ATGMs and not good for Tanks and heavy equipment. |
PMC317 | 06 Dec 2014 4:49 p.m. PST |
That would be an interesting game, surely – Estonian/Baltic troops with ATGMs hunting Russian tanks and AIFVs in marshes and forests… |