"Ukraine Separatist Leader Declares That The Ceasefire..." Topic

…Is Over.

"The self-declared "prime minister" of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) has declared on Twitter that the month-old ceasefire between Ukraine and the separatist republic has ended.

Granted, this was the sort of cease-fire during which heavy combat was frequent, including fighting that destroyed much of the Donetsk airport. But on Monday, DNR leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko admitted what has been obvious for some time, and tweeted the following after a period of particularly heavy fighting in Donetsk…"
Full article here
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Poor people, war is back!.

Amicalement
Armand

This is the pro-Russian team declaring that the cease fire is over? I don't follow the situation closely.

Did Pro-US Ukrainian government troops get their bottom handed to them prior to the cease fire? I guess the leader of the DPR/DNR would only restart hostilities if he felt the enemy wouldn't be able to renew the conflict effectively.

This is pro-Russian separatists declaring it. Ever since it officially started they have continuing to press for control of the airport around Donetsk and actually announced fairly early on that they did not agree to a ceasefire under the terms offered, eg increased authority for self rule. They only want complete and unconditional separation.

Novosti reported the other day that separatists are now attacking the town of Schastye, and have approx 200 government troops surrounded, so it is unfortunately looking increasingly likely that this was being used as an opportunity to regroup rather than a genuine attempt at negotiated peace.

One of the terms of of the ceasefire was the withdrawal of all heavy weaponry (essentially tanks and artillery) 15km each side of the front line. There was no cessation of hostilities agreed though, merely a status quo of the immediate position. Since that time separatists have continually pressed to retake the airport, my guess being they wanted to ensure it was there before any formal lines were drawn, and are now attacking harder having failed to do so.

After significant gains by the Ukrainian army, there was a sudden reversal with the DPR gaining significantly, mysteriously after 280 trucks crossed from Russia bringing 2000 tons of aid (which the Red Cross doesn't seem to have seen). In the intervening period there have been two more similar sized convoys, one to Donetsk and one to Lughansk. Neither were inspected, and both saw an increase in hostilities shortly thereafter.
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Putin has ordered Russian troops back to their bases, the third time he has allegedly done so this year. NATO is still reporting that they have seen no significant movements away from the border.

And, there are no Russian minisubs in Swedish waters, calling for help.

They are Russian-speaking Dutch submariners, who apparently got drunk on Vodka, and détente…….

What a screw up.

Does anyone happen to know what if they are done with analysing the tapes from the Malaysian aircraft which crashed?

First of all, 15 km zone of withdrawal meant Dontesk airport, and Ukrainian troops (or pro-ukrainian volunteers) were still shelling the city from there, and Schastye as well. In order to honour the agreement, thay had to remove all artillery from the airport, and of course the were not going to do that. Therefore, it was only a question of time beofre hostilities resumed. There's plenty of people from both sides who don't want ceasefire – war parties in both countries, some of the separatists. I was wondering, how long the ceasefire is going to hold, as there was more deaths and hostilities than in June, before Ukrainian side abandoned ceasefire and started the offensive. On separatists site there was a lot of contradicting information, showing that the strings are pulled from various sides – lots of locals are blaming Putin for Minsk agreement and ceasefire, as separatsits where gaining territory at that time. Strelkov ( he is no longer in command of anything) is blaming "liberals and oligarchs" for selling DNR and LNR to Akhmetov. The war before elections is fine for some of Ukrainian politicians (Kolomoyskiy, Lyashko) who are falling behind Poroshenko's party. There might be behind-the-curtain agreement that effectively the break-away territories will be actually ruled by Akhmetov's puppets. Russia would be more interested in frozen conflict than in its escalation, but there's too many factors in play…

Does anyone happen to know what if they are done with analysing the tapes from the Malaysian aircraft which crashed?

Latest analysis simply confirmed that it was caused by multiple high velocity fragments, consistent with a surface to air missile, leading to explosive decompression and chronic structural failure, but could not confirm the actual missile used or who pushed the button. On the balance of probability a mistaken identity by separtist units remains the most likelihood. However it almost certainly was not a deliberate targeting of civilian airliners, as some Ukrainian government officials have tried to suggest.

15 km zone of withdrawal meant Dontesk airport

But only the withdrawal of heavy weapons (troops were to remain), and both sides seem to have been saying "you first", with neither of them actually doing it. The separatists have made their intention to retake the airport quite clear. Both sides claim the other fired first, and that they were 'firing back'. As my sister and I used to say as kids, "he/she started it when he/she hit me back".

I was wondering, how long the ceasefire is going to hold, as there was more deaths and hostilities than in June

Over 3000 in the first 6 months, but less than 300 in the last month, so a notable reduction.

Ukrainian side abandoned ceasefire and started the offensive

I think it is debateable who abandoned the ceasefire, as the separatists have stated from the outset that they did not agree with it and rejected Putin's Minsk agreement, but without Russia's continued support (denied or not) it weas questionable how much further they would be able to keep up the offensive.

Obviously recent gains made prior to the ceasefire have fueled a few with "let's keep going until we get to Kyiv", but the people are pretty fed up with conflict, especially as winter sets in.

So much for western Ukrainians despising those from the east, about half the refugees fled west – there has never been a case for them fleeing to Russia or fleeing to Ukraine, they are merely fleeing FROM the conflict areas and you don't go across a conflict to an area of safety. We know from first hand that many refugees are now living with people, in their houses, in Kharkiv and even in Lviv.

Russia would be more interested in frozen conflict than in its escalation

Putin has publically stated that he does not want to see a frozen conflict in Ukraine. Of course what he wants privately may be a different case…

Galina is back out there on Thursday for a week, so will ask a few questions directly of the people there. Ukrainian networks are still showing both Ukrainian and Russian TV.

Russia's lucky that no one has called their bluff and their ability to wage a limited war of three days duration!

Does anyone happen to know what if they are done with analysing the tapes from the Malaysian aircraft which crashed?

And, there are no Russian minisubs in Swedish waters, calling for help.

Probably the same Russian sub downed the Malaysian aircraft in the Indian Ocean as well. They get around.

What's also interesting is that the Ukranian government is initiating a massive purge of all public servants with any potential stains against their names – suspicions of corruption but also possible ties to former government, Russia or any parties involved in problems in the East (and quite possibly opposition groups).

Apparently up to a million people may lose their jobs.

This could further exacerbate problems by pushing more people into siding with rebels.

Cutting down on corruption would be a primary factor in the steps towards submission for EU membership (2020 schedule)

Gutting huge chunks of the public service doesn't stop corruption.

And why is a supposedly anti-corruption campaign targetting Communists or people with certain views or people appointed under old regime (many were probably recruited under normal processes)?

Even the Ukrainian Prosecutor General has said the purge is against Ukranian constitution, international law and oculd result in action against government in European Court of Human Rights.

It's a political purge.

csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/1016/Ukraine-purge-Communists-cronies-and-crooks-face-the-axe-video

This article highlights that it affects any public servants working with government for "at least one year during Yanukovych's four-year tenure."

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What stops corruption is good processes and effective cultural change. Without them, any sackings are pointless.

Also public servants includes doctors, police, teachers, nurses, fire fighters, soldiers, judges etc. Whose going to do this work if you're busy sacking them? These are skilled jobs, not manual labour jobs. Chinese found that out the hard way in Cultural Revolution.

In other news, Ukranian army and rebels have been accused by Human Rights Watch of using cluster weapons against civilian targets.

nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html

Bad news for Ukranian army who the media pretending were the "good guys."

Also indicates a complete disregard for civilians in the area by government.

There's also been some evidence of illegal killings by Ukranian National Guard units.

Basically this is turning really ugly.

What's also interesting is that the Ukranian government is initiating a massive purge of all public servants with any potential stains against their names – suspicions of corruption but also possible ties to former government, Russia or any parties involved in problems in the East (and quite possibly opposition groups).

Apparently up to a million people may lose their jobs.

This could further exacerbate problems by pushing more people into siding with rebels.

If the objective is to keep a corrupt regime in power they may have no choice but to alienate a large part of the population while they promote a privileged minority to keep them in place. Something similar happened in Vietnam.

I wonder if there will be any consequences for those who destablised Ukraine in the first place? If there is no feedback they will continue making trouble in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Also indicates a complete disregard for civilians in the area by government.

If you look at the government, previous interim government, even candidates in the election, governors who were appointed by the interim government you will see that they don't reflect the demographics of Ukraine. They are an elite, corrupt, group.

Note that Ukraine's top prosecutor has warned the legislation may be unconstitutional, not said that it is. Equally there are indications that the legislation may be adjusted if found to be non compliant constitutionally. This is a sensationalist media report before anything has actually happened.

Not overly surprised about the submunitions; neither the US nor Russia signed up to the Convention (and the UK only got rid of them last year).

Artillery launched clutter munitions were standard fare for Soviet batteries, so I would have been very surprised if they were not still within Ukrainian arsenals. Both sides have been shelling this area in the belief that the other side is attempting to control it.

Russia argued that sub munitions are legitimate rounds to minimise civilian casualties (Finland agreement 2008, when Russia refused to sign) and used them extensively in Chechnya and Georgia, so both their presence and use is not really surprising.

I know a prosecutor in the Ukrainian army, but I can't go into more details. He is responsible for investigating and prosecuting these sorts of atrocities and we are aware of some limited breaches, mainly by militia units. However both sides are accused of human rights breaches, particularly the separatists with reports of regular abductions, torture and executions.

Putin, speaking to members of the Valdai discussion club in Sochi, has confirmed that they helped the former Ukrainian President flee from Ukraine. No surprises there perhaps. However what he went on to say was more interesting…

[Putin] claimed Russia did not want confrontation and bore no grudge because of sanctions. All that was needed, he said, was to restore the balance lost when the Soviet Union disappeared as a global counterweight to US power. All Russia wanted was for Russian interests to be respected.

Curious mixture of comments. On one hand just to be globally respected (fair enough, perhaps) but on the other a direct intention to restore Russia to a position of global equality to the USA (which indirectly also acknowledges that he feels Russia is in an inferior position).

[Putin] claims that all the turbulence in the world is due to mistakes made by an American superpower which erroneously believed that it was the sole victor of the Cold War and could shape the world to suit its exclusive interests. The problem, he says, is a world without rules where the US has run rampage.

That does, of course, assume that any action is purely done in the interests of the USA, with no account of interests gained by any other nation.

[Putin] denies that Russia violated international law and or breached Ukrainian sovereignty – Russia's annexation of Crimea was "fulfilling Crimea's right to self-determination".

IMHO, a very selective use of the right of self-determination – I wonder if he is equally open to the right of certain areas not to be part of Russia, if they so self-determined?

As for hostile propaganda to create a new enemy, this was an American tactic, aimed at Russia, not vice versa. Indeed almost every criticism he made of the US could be applied to Russia itself. But in Mr Putin's scathing denunciation of American power, he simply refuses to acknowledge it.

As we have often learnt, you cannot negotiate with someone who simply doesn't want to negotiate.

As voting starts today, this nicely puts the problem in the East into perspectice: