Based on NATO exercises with, say, the Poles?Yes, MiG29s can beat F15s if the F15s don't have AWACS support.
It does come to pilot skill, tactics and luck.
Remember the Israelis did well with dangerous and poor performing S199 over Egyptian Spitfires. Or Vietnamese MiG-17s v more advanced US fighters (nearly 1:1 ratio at times).
In one exercise between Polish MiGs and Polish F-16s, the results were roughly equal until a NATO AWACS pitched in to help the F-16s in which case all the MiGS were shot down in BVR.
However:
1. Most MiG/Sukhoi drivers don't have great pilot training programs.
The ones that do are generally allies or reasonable friendly countries (India, Poland, Malaysia)
2. Most Sukhoi/MiG drivers seldom have more than 24-36 such planes.
In many cases MiG-29s are older 1980s vintage models picked up cheap from Belarus, Russia and elsewhere. They've not be upgraded.
3. Russian pilots are now getting hours (up to 150 hours p.a.).
However Russian fighter deliveries are lagging. Most deliveries to Russian airforce/navy has been of refurbished Su-24/-25/-27 and MiG-29/-31s from Soviet era.
Advanced 4+ jets are only trickling in small numnbers:
- Su-30SM (67 to be delivered by 2016)
- Su-35 (34 in service, total of 48 by 2015)
The Russians are taking deliveries of more basic 4th generation aircraft:
- baseline Su-30MK2 (equivalent to F-15E) – to be used as trainers for Su-30SM
- Su-34 (Su-24 replacement, 40-odd delivered and fleet will total 120 by 2020).
- MiG-29SMT – 34 in service plus 16 on order.
No orders for MiG-35 yet.
The Russian support network (AWACS, tankers, electronic warfare) is still decrepit and in some cases non-existant.
So by 2020 the Russian air force might number a couple of hundred 4+ fighters (Su-30SM/Su-35) if they adhere to their current plans.
The rest of the fleet will be 1980s vintage (albeit some modernised to various degrees) and there appaears to be no real solutions to support platforms.
3. PLAAF is completely untested in combat. It's last A2A actions were limited skirmishes versus Taiwan in late 50s/early 60s.
Whilst Flanker variant are in widespread service alongside 4th generation J-10 and JH-7 (Tornado equivalent), the vast majority of PLAAF air power is still J-7 (MiG-21 copy), J-8 (roughly equivalent to 1970s MiG-23) and Q-5 (attack aircraft based on MiG-19).
Like the Russians, air support ala AWACS, Electronic Warfare and tankers are in limited supply or non-existent.
4. In terms of avionics both the Russians and Chinese are decades behind the West.
5. Both Su-27/-30 and advanced MiG-29 variants are untested in combat against Western warplanes.
Su-27s kicked MiG-29 butt in Eritrea-Ethiopia War but that was a strictly 3rd world affair and the aircraft involved were older ex-Soviet ones and tactics were bad (e.g. launching BVR missiles at maximum range limit).
Older MiG-29s have been regularly smashed by F-15s and F-16s but these have generally been Soviet era "Monkey Models" or in a state of disrepair (Serbia) flown by third rate air forces and never in large numbers.
6. New Chinese and Russian jets (J-20/-31/PAK FA) are prototypes in early stages of development.
They're also turning out to be more expensive than expected (India for example has slashed planned PAKFA buy by 25% and more cuts are expected due to cost increases).
They won't be active in export market either due to massive costs.
China doesn't allow exports of advanced fighters (hence no J-10/JH-7 sales but they do allow sales of older or less capable equipment ala J-7 or JF-17).
Hence the average opponent in say 2025 will probably stil be a J-7/MiG-21, F-4/-5/-14 (Iran), Su-24/-25 or 1980s Mig-29 or most likely nothing at all.
That's exactly the point. The F-22 is supposed to maintain our technological edge over 4th + generation fighters like the SU-35 and J-16. The F-15 and F-18 are 'legacy' fighters based on 1970's designs. Even the Typhoon and Rafale from our allies Britain and France are higher tech and newer than these legacy fighters.
Firstly the F-15/-16/-18 of 2014 is not the same F-15/-16/-18 in 1970s/early 1980s.
The Teen series fighters have been kept potent and have a lot of 4+ upgrades available (e.g. AESA radars).
And they've beaten Eurofighter/Rafale in international competitions even in traditional French/British markets ala Morroco, UAE or Oman (though Oman eventually ordered 12 Eurofighters after ordering 24 F-16s) as well as more traditional US market (Singapore, South Korea).
The Eurofighter especially has turned out to be a maintenance hog (at least according to the Germans).
Both are incredibly costly to both procure and maintain. The Swiss chose the Swedish JAS-39 Gripen on these factors alone!