"Turkey’s ISIL crisis is worse than you think" Topic

"On Sept. 20, Turkey secured the release of dozens of its citizens who had been held captive by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) since June. In an effort to not jeopardize the lives of the hostages, Turkish leaders have been reluctant to publicly condemn the group. In June, the famously bullish Recep Tayyip Erdogan even said, "no one should expect me to provoke ISIS," responding to accusations that his government has been passive in dealing with ISIL. Ankara has also refused to allow the United States, its closest military ally since 1947, to launch airstrikes from U.S. bases in Turkey. Now that the hostages are freed, Ankara should openly join the U.S.-led coalition against ISIL.

After two years of tolerating the group as it funneled recruits and supplies into Syria, Turkey has come to the realization that the group represents a serious threat to its national security. How did Turkey get into such a predicament?

When the Syrian crisis began in 2011, Turkey doubled down on its ideological, financial and material support for the armed Syrian opposition with the hope that the U.S. would enter the fight. As the crackdown on Syria's Sunni protesters mounted, Erdogan (at the time Turkey's prime minister and now its president) and Ahmet Davutoglu (then its foreign minister and now its prime minister) endorsed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's ouster. After all, U.S. President Barack Obama said that Assad had lost legitimacy and that it was time for the Syrian leader to go. Besides, the idea of an Islamist-aligned government in Syria resonated with Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions to see Turkey as a key player and tutor in the region…"
Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

"Mistakes were made."

Boy were/are/will they.

any relationship found with turkeys' unoficial war against PKK fighters aswell ?

Are we sure we can depend on the Turks as a NATO ally ? Or to assist us along with Arab allies in the war on ISIS/AQ/etc., etc. … < rethorical questions >

They make good delight! :+) Other than they great stand ins for historical movies.

I heard that Turkey had lost an airport to them, apparently some time ago, on the news today.

First I had heard of that.

As someone also pointed out, Erdogan's views are very similar to the ultimate goals of ISIS, so…….

It's amazing how countries are stupid enough to use out of control fundamentalist insurgents as a tool of foreign policy.

It is amazing how the article puts the blame squarely on Turkey, even though US policy supported the war in Syria and many other countries were involved in supporting the Syrian rebels including NATO countries shipping weapons to rebels via Saudi/UAE/Qatar intelligence services.

Are we sure we can depend on the Turks as a NATO ally ? Or to assist us along with Arab allies in the war on ISIS/AQ/etc., etc. … < rethorical questions >

I don't think you ever could've relied on Turkey (or Greece). Their main reason to be in NATO was protection from each other. There were doubts they would contribute to any war against USSR.

And since 1991 their contributions to NATO/Western ops have been quite small (remember Turkey is Europe's largest military) or in case of Greece often non-existent.

Not even the end of Tuesday evening as we know it.

As the song goes: Tuesday's Gone!

youtube.com/watch?v=2PlKbYGGVPQ

It's Wednesday in my part of the woods.

I don't think you ever could've relied on Turkey (or Greece). Their main reason to be in NATO was protection from each other. There were doubts they would contribute to any war against USSR.

And since 1991 their contributions to NATO/Western ops have been quite small (remember Turkey is Europe's largest military) or in case of Greece often non-existent.

Yes, as I said, rethorical questions. The Turks are the second largest army in NATO,[way]behind the US. The Greeks, as you said, non-existant …

Dude … If I knew that I wouldn't be discussing it on TMP !

It would be classified …

The Greeks, as you said, non-existant …

Greek military is large by European standards:

- Army – similar to British in size.

- Navy – same number of frigates as Royal Navy. Has more attack submarines than Royal Navy (though RN are far more capable)

- Airforce – Slightly more fighters than RAF. Most of these are F-16C/D or M2000. A-7s are being retired in October and remaining F-4s are heavily upgraded and still very capable in strike role.

Even after retirement of remaining 20 odd A-7, HAF has more fighters than RAF.

In fact with French and Italian drawdowns and planned procurement, Greece will possess the second largest fighter fleet in Europe after Turkey.

And all of this is locked up for defence of Greece against NATO partner Turkey.

Sadly that is probably true … however, I don't see them as a 1st line combat ready force …

Random Dude
Not even a hint.

I know nothing ! Nothing !

however, I don't see them as a 1st line combat ready force …

The do exercise quite a lot and are combat ready. It's just not the kind of stuff that's useful outside of the Aegean environment.

Most NATO forces are not frontline these days. Token armies with token capabilities. And a lot are poorly equipped – old Warpac gear or equally old Western gear.

Unfortunately … most of NATO appears to not be combat ready … and whether we like it or not … we, the West is at war … again … Also the few Greek soldiers I have met in the past, well … I was not too impressed … but they may have felt the same about me …

Maybe the Turks could go back to Syria and Iraq. We could go back to 1400.

We could go back to 1400.

Now you're thinking like the Turkish PM!

And ISIS/Daesh … for that matter …

Turkey to join coalition against ISIS

"Turkey is expected to join a handful of Muslim nations supporting the U.S. fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the White House said Wednesday.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Turkey faced a "complicated situation," but the NATO ally bordering Syria had a mutual interest in defeating ISIS…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Just saw live feed on CNN of Daesh fighters in combat near the Turk border. Think they are going after a village where refugees are gathering or passing thru in Syria near that border … So when are the Turks going to do something ?

Again, on CNN, live feed, as the few Kurds in the area shot at Daesh and maybe hit one. The Refugees cheer like at a football game. The Turks continue to observe from guard posts and AFVs … and do nothing … The Daesh are advancing it the open down a ridgeline, at a very slow pace. Again the refugees/Kurds cheer and sing as Daesh are hit and drop. Darkness is falling … too bad the Kurds don't have any mortars … You can't make this stuff up …

I suspect that one reason for Turkey's reluctance to come in to the conflict is that as the Kurds will be one of the main fighting forces against Isis, Turkey is adaamently opposed to them getting heavy weapons. After all, Turkey has a large Kurdish population inside their borders right next to those in Syria and Iraq, and they are deathly afraid of the Kurds making a united Kurdistah. Occasionally in the past the Turks have made efforts to exterminate them as well.

"If you give them heavy artillery you make them independent."

Bingo, Otto. The Turks made a point of bombing Iraqi Kurdistan last year, just to remind everyone that they could, whenever they pleased. On the other hand, the Turks have been helping the Iraqi Kurds ship out their oil, much to the displeasure of the Baghdad government.

If the Turks come across that border, it will be a puzzle whose side they're on. Everybody's ass will be up for grabs.

Pkk Commander threatens to resume war.

Read here
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Amicalement
Armand

It's 1914 all over again.

The Turks may be the Wild Card … maybe …

I suspect the Turks are hoping Daesh/ISIS will rid them of their Kurdish problem.

They can keep hoping … as I said, the Kurds are the only force in the region that is kicking Daesh butt. And now the Kurds are getting more support from US, Euros, etc. … The Turks may be, as some say, will find themselves on the wrong side of history, so-to-speak …

The Turks may be, as some say, will find themselves on the wrong side of history, so-to-speak …

Given global demographics, in 2100 people will probably be talking how the brave Turks courageously stood up to the now extinct secular Westerners in the war that helped establish the great European caliphate.

So Erdogan wants to fight IS, but also wants to topple Assad and neutralise Kurdish power.

dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Oct-01/272637-erdogan-turkey-will-fight-isis-wants-assad-gone.ashx#axzz3Ex31GQRz

Anyone with even casual knowledge of this conflict will realise that these 3 goals are actually incompatible.

1. Neutralise ISIS – increases Assad and Kurdish power.
2. Neutralise Kurds – increases Assad and IS power.
3. Neutralise Assad – increases IS and Kurdish power.

Option 4: Turkey takes over chunks of Syria as a protectorate. Behold rebirth of Ottoman Empire (current main goal of Erdogan).

I have sometimes thought…that the Turks' turn to secularism after WWI was in part a bitter reaction to the Arab Revolt. The sanctimonious Sherif Hussain rebelled against his most legitimate and orthodox sovereign the Sultan, Caliph of Stamboul and lawful Protector of the Holy Cities. The Arabs fought such a war as to teach the Turks never to surrender, and contributed materially to the Turkish defeat by the filthy kuffar, loss of empire and near national extinction. So the hell with religion for a generation or two, who wants to go on pilgrimage to the stinking Arab Hijaz?

I have sometimes thought…that the Turks rather enjoyed watching the Israelis kick Arab ass. There was schadenfreude and vicarious revenge at work. The Turks always had a soft spot for Jews. The Turks were rarely very orthodox; they liked their illicit pleasures, their wine and their dancing boys, and Jews made the very best bootleggers, bartenders, pimps and s. Really, it's a natural talent. Arabs, on the other hand, make good ulama.

So now the Turks have rediscovered their Sunni religion, and their age-old rivalry with Shia Persia. Now the Turks could be in a position to take over the wreck of Arab Syria and be everyone's savior. Save the Sunnis from the Shia and the kuffar and the Jews. Save the Alawis and the Christians from the Sunnis. Save the Kurds from themselves. Push the Persians back to their side of the Gulf. Take over the Sunni part of Iraq? Partner with the Sowdis? Finally hammer out a settlement with Israel?

Sometimes I think…that could be Erdogan's long-term plan.

Turkey's Parliament Approves Military Operations In Iraq And Syria To Fight The Islamic State

"Turkey's parliament has backed a motion allowing its military to enter Iraq and Syria to fight Islamic State (IS) militants.

The resolution will also permit foreign troops to use Turkish territory for the operation.

The motion was passed with 298 MPs in favour and 98 against.

Turkey had been unwilling to fight IS militants because they were holding 46 Turkish hostages – but they were released last month.

Turkey is also wary of retaliation by IS and fears helping the Kurds who are fighting the militants…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

The Turks don't like Assad and generally don't have any real love for the Kurds. The Turks would be glad to see Assad fall and indirectly support Daesh or any one else who would assist in his demise. And the Turks and Kurds have been fighting a guerilla[terrorist] war for sometime. Plus recently the US VP said somethings, true or not, that upset the Turks. So more and more, I see the Turks dragging their feet for a number of reasons. But we'll have to wait and see … if they eventually do anything. But in the meantime Deash continues their advances, brutality, etc., with little to slow them down.

The Tomb that Could Drag Turkey into the Syrian Civil War

"On the banks of the Euphrates in Syria, 20 miles from the Turkish border, stands the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, the grandfather of Osman, founder of the Ottoman Empire.

Yet the territory and complex — roughly the size of two football fields — is controlled by Turkey under a 1921 treaty between France, then the mandatory power in Syria, and what later became the Turkish Republic. Under the agreement, the Turkish flag waves and soldiers man their posts in Turkey's only extraterritorial possession.

The territory is now at the center of a flammable mix of Turkish domestic politics, a vicious civil war now in its third year, and international counterterrorism efforts. The situation could easily ignite, providing a justification for a Turkish military intervention in Syria. As long as the Syrian civil war drags on and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) remains a potent force, the Tomb of Suleyman Shah will remain a major issue…"
Full article here
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Amicalement
Armand

Turkey Now Allowing The U.S. To Launch Drones To Fly Over Syria

"Turkey is now allowing the U.S. to launch unmanned aircraft to fly over Syria. But so far, traditional warplanes are out of the question.

Send in the drones. But keep the manned aircraft at home.

That's the message from the Turkish government to the U.S.-led coalition bombing ISIS and other extremists in Syria.

Despite some recent signals from the Turkish government that it was finally ready to partner with the United States and others in the new war against ISIS, there is still a major snag.

U.S. officials working on the diplomacy and intelligence components of the new war tell The Daily Beast that Ankara is still prohibiting the United States from flying manned aircraft from the U.S. airbase in Incirlik, Turkey. Instead, the Turks are allowing only drones to take off from the base…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Turkey offers help to train and equip Syrian rebels to combat Islamic State

"Turkey is offering to help train and equip Syrian rebels on its own soil in order to help combat Islamic State militants, Turkish Minister for EU Affairs announced Thursday, October 16. A report also claimed that Ankara has approved American drone flights from a key airbase.

On Thursday, Turkish Minister for EU Affairs Volkan Bozkir said the anti-Islamic State (IS, ISIS/ISIL) coalition could try to pry elite forces away from groups like Al-Nusra and Hezbollah, and enhance their training inside of Turkey.

"We can separate opposition forces from al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, IS and Hezbollah, and those who are really trained to fight in specific conditions may come to Turkey, we can train and equip them together and send them to solve the problem of the Islamic State once and for all," he told the European Parliament, as quoted by Russian news agency RIA Novosti…"
Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

ThomasHobbes I agree with option 4. I believe the Turks are waiting until the Western Allies beg them to get involved, thus legitimizing their take over of Syrian and Iraqi territory. The new Ottoman Empire is born (or re-born depending on your point of view).