"Can Ukraine Win The War?" Topic
18 Posts
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Tango01 | 12 Sep 2014 12:43 p.m. PST |
"When tanks and artillery entered the southern Donetsk Oblast from Russia on Aug. 27 it caught Ukrainian forces off guard, sending shockwaves through Ukraine's leadership. Resistance quickly crumbled as the advancing forces took Novoazovsk and surrounding villages. With reports that Russian regulars led the offensive not Russian-supported Ukrainian separatists or volunteers, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk appeared in front of television cameras visibly shaken. "Russian terrorists we can handle, but not the Russian army," he said before trailing off. With the new offensive the optimism that existed in July, when Defence Minister Valeriy Heletey said Ukraine would hold a victory march in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, has evaporated. Doubt is growing among both the Ukrainian officials and military experts as to whether Ukraine could win this war…" link Full article here link Amicalement Armand |
15mm and 28mm Fanatik | 12 Sep 2014 12:54 p.m. PST |
Ukraine's only hope for victory in the east over the separatists depends on the following: a. Putin not sending Russian troops across the border to help the beleaguered rebels; b. Sanctions imposed by US and Europe having enough bite to force Putin to back down and leave the rebels to their fates; c. NATO drawing a 'line in the sand' and support Ukraine militarily. Since none of these occurred, it looks like peace will not occur without major concessions to Putin. |
John the OFM | 12 Sep 2014 12:55 p.m. PST |
Militarily, Putin probably could take Kiev within 2 weeks, as he is alleged to have bragged. But at what cost politically and internationally? That is his decision to make. Now, I bet Ukraine is really glad that the Western nations persuaded her to disarm in return for "guarantees" more than 10 years ago. The 10 year thing is to avoid the TMP "politics" statute of limitations. |
darthfozzywig | 12 Sep 2014 2:34 p.m. PST |
Now, I bet Ukraine is really glad that the Western nations persuaded her to disarm in return for "guarantees" more than 10 years ago. That was the first thing I thought of when the whole Crimea thing started going sideways. Not really a good motivator for anyone to voluntarily disarm – especially a WMD stockpile – when it's clear that your territorial integrity might only be respected if you still have them. I guess aging nukes are better than no nukes. :/ Then again, it's hard to imagine Ukraine NUKING RUSSIA (for crying out loud) under most circumstances, especially with the successful approach the Russians are taking/encouraging. |
GeoffQRF | 12 Sep 2014 3:07 p.m. PST |
There has been some significant changes lately. 1. Shortly after Russia delivered 2000 tones of aid to Lugansk (which may or may not be coincidental, but I have yet to see photos of the aid either stored, being checked by the IRC or being distributed) the separatists launched a large scale counter attack along an extremely wide front. 2. Despite being denied by Russia, there are multiple reports from Ukrainian troops of being targeted by extremely accurate artillery. 3. There is a sudden shift in position, with Putin putting forward (or at least being seen to put forward) a 12 point peace plan. (Ukraine seems to have accepted this, at least in part, in fear of increased direct Russian involvement). Curiously Putin has said he supports increased autonomy, but not separatism – a view held by Poroshenko but rejected by the separatists. 4. Ukraine seems to have made an agreement to delay the application of an EU-Ukraine free trade pact until the end of next year Regarding the involvement of Russians in Ukraine, there is some interesting information in this article: link Significantly: "Vitaly says officers tried to force his son – serving mandatory military service – to change his status to a contract soldier, which would legally allow him to serve abroad. Conscripts in Russia are exempt from foreign service. His son refused to sign, but officers sent him to Ukraine anyway. "They dressed him up like a rebel so no one would know he was a Russian soldier and off he went," said Vitaly." Rolan, the serviceman who fought alongside Tumanov in Snizhnye, says he spent 10 days fighting in Ukraine in the middle of August. Back home in the Krasnodar region, he said his commanders offered soldiers the option to go to Ukraine. The men could refuse, but the commanders were very supportive of those who agreed. Rolan went, he said, because of his military oath and to protect Russian-speakers from Ukrainian forces, routinely referred to as fascists, in Russia. His unit put him on paid leave to make the trip. |
David Manley | 12 Sep 2014 3:36 p.m. PST |
"Curiously Putin has said he supports increased autonomy, but not separatism" Of course he doesn't support separatism – openly. By not doing so he shows a (relatively) moderate stance. He can, of course be persuaded (apparently reluctantly) by the impassioned pleas of the separatists to support their view. All part of the game |
GeoffQRF | 13 Sep 2014 6:59 a.m. PST |
Questionable when things like this are happening… "…on Saturday morning, Russian customs officials said that a Russian aid convoy had crossed into eastern Ukraine. A spokesman for the European security watchdog, the OSCE, told our correspondent that 220 Russian lorries had passed the border overnight and on Saturday morning – the majority of which were not inspected by either Ukraine or international observers… Donetsk airport (currently held by Ukrainian soldiers) has also come under attack. …The BBC's Paul Adams, in Donetsk, says most of the gunfire around the airport sounded like artillery, but that multiple rocket launchers have also been in use. On Friday night, he also heard a volley fired from somewhere much closer to the centre of the city… |
Sudwind | 13 Sep 2014 9:18 a.m. PST |
….enjoy the coming new world order. |
Mako11 | 13 Sep 2014 3:03 p.m. PST |
A shame they can't do the same to another region of Russia, in a different border area. I guess surrendering nukes for a worthless paper document, and government promises isn't good "strategy". Their only hope is to give the Russians the "Afghani Welcome", and fight a guerrilla war on their territory, and that of major strategic targets in Russia, which will embarrass Putin, and turn the citizens against him. Fighting Russia straight up is bound to be a failure, without NATO military support, which won't be given. |
GeoffQRF | 14 Sep 2014 3:14 a.m. PST |
Recent image of one of the 'aid' trucks…
This appears to be a KShM R-142 command truck, based on the Gaz-66, and used for HF and VHF communication.
Presumably either loaded with bread or used to communicate where it needs to be delivered? ;-) If you fancy building one, I'm kind of blown away by this paper version: link |
Legion 4 | 15 Sep 2014 10:03 a.m. PST |
Heard on CNN, 1300 NATO troops will be doing an FTX in Western Ukraine. Including 100 US Troops, IIRC, Paras from the US 173d ABN Bde … Mr. Putin may not like that … |
GeoffQRF | 15 Sep 2014 1:15 p.m. PST |
This is Rapid Trident. It's an annual event at the Yavoriv training center near the Polish border. It was originally scheduled for July, but put back due to the fighting. It's been going on for at least the last 5 years. |
Bangorstu | 15 Sep 2014 1:33 p.m. PST |
Not sure Putin could get to Kiev in two weeks.. Putin is already experiencing dissent in russia over casualties and the undeclared war. It takes a lot to subjugate 40 million people, and the Russians no longer have the required degree of manpower. Not if they're to cover their other frontiers as well. |
Deadone | 15 Sep 2014 4:08 p.m. PST |
Not sure Putin could get to Kiev in two weeks..
I suspect it'd be relatively easy. The Ukranian military is badly outclassed. The Russians may be a third rate military power, but that's still far more capable than the Ukrainian one. It takes a lot to subjugate 40 million people, and the Russians no longer have the required degree of manpower. The Germans didn't have to subjugate all 40 million French people in 1940 to conquer Paris. I doubt the average Ukranian is much interested in fighting. When I was in the war in Croatia, not many people were interested in joining the war effort. My uncles and a few others my parents knew only joined up when the Serbs started to lose and there was great potential for looting and government pensions without much risk. |
Barin1 | 15 Sep 2014 11:04 p.m. PST |
Having the possibility doesn't equal the wish to carry on the occupation. Russia can deal with Ukrainian military easily, but holding the territory where the support might be lower than 40% will be too dangerous and costly. Keeping the country divided and /or neutral is enough for Putin current goal. Now, when Ukraine was told that both NATO and EU membership is a distant future, and economic problems are still mounting, Poroshenko will have hard times in a year or two. This year's election can be won on occupation and EU close ties promise, but Ukraine is not getting adequate financing, and I can understand the finance institutes being afraid to give more… |
GeoffQRF | 16 Sep 2014 7:11 a.m. PST |
Having the possibility doesn't equal the wish to carry on the occupation. Absolutely, and I don't think Putin's comment was meant as a threat. It was more an observation that, had he the desire, the Ukrainian army had nothing that would seriously represent anything more than a speed bump. However I believe it was intended to indicate "it's obvious I could, if I wanted, and the fact that I haven't is meant to show that I have no intention to do so…" |
GeoffQRF | 18 Sep 2014 12:37 p.m. PST |
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has urged the US to provide military assistance to his country to counter pro-Russian eastern separatists.Mr Poroshenko told the joint session of Congress in Washington that Ukrainian government forces needed more equipment – both lethal and non-lethal. "Blankets, night-vision goggles are important, but one cannot win the war with blankets." His impassioned plea for US support brought applause and several standing ovations. Mr Poroshenko arrived in the US from Canada. Addressing the Canadian parliament on Wednesday, Mr Poroshenko said Ukraine had "crossed the Rubicon" by ratifying a day earlier the association and free trade agreement with the EU. "This was Ukraine's last 'farewell' to the Soviet Union," he said to loud cheering and applause from Canadian lawmakers. Whatever may happen to two relatively small areas in the east of the country, it's quite clear that Ukraine has no intention of returning under the sphere of Soviet/Russian influence. It is starting to look like the ceasefire is not a surrender, but an attempt to buy time to gain wider western support, thus putting Russia under real pressure to stop directly supporting the separatists. If, as Russia claims, it is not supporting then then it would appear to be no threat to Russia for direct lethal action. The only question really remains whether Ukraine will: 1. Fight to regain those regions (and at this stage, despite a ceasefire and certain concessions, it seems quite clear that the primary intention is they will not be calved off as part of a deal) 2. Let them remain disputed territory, which appears to be Russia's intention, to prevent Ukraine from making headway 3. Cut them loose as independent, or even part of Russia (assuming Russia wants them – it is my gut feeling that Russia wants then unstable, but doesn't actually want to absorb them), thus consolidating the rest of Ukraine and making it easier to move towards full EU and/or Nato membership. |
GeoffQRF | 20 Sep 2014 12:19 p.m. PST |
A third Russian convoy has arrived in Ukraine, this time in Donetsk, allegedly delivering aid. Again, this is without any authorisation of the Ukrainian government and, in the absence of any formal acknowledgement of the territory being anything other than a legitimate part of Ukraine, represents at best 200 Russian citizens (drivers) illegally in Ukraine. |
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