Tango01 | 03 Sep 2014 1:04 p.m. PST |
…Probabilities in Flames of War! "Probability in Flames of War is always a tricky thing to manage and predict accurately. Varying conditions (Training/Concealment/Range Modifiers) coupled with successive die rolls (Roll to Hit/Pen/Destroy) multiplied by a volume of fire make accurate statistical predictions virtually impossible to perform on the fly. A number of players advocate the use of "easy math" when it comes to predicting die results often called "Expected Value" or "EV" for short. While I also suggest employing EV calculations for in-game tactical decisions, I feel that it is equally important to understand that these "Expected Values" can vastly understate or overstate your chances of success…" Full article here link Amicalement Armand |
nazrat | 03 Sep 2014 3:43 p.m. PST |
Awful. This is just the sort of thing that would utterly ruin gaming for me. It's supposed to be FUN, dammit, not just numbers and probabilities. |
kallman | 03 Sep 2014 4:53 p.m. PST |
I agree, just play the game and enjoy the time. Yuk! |
nsolomon99 | 03 Sep 2014 6:23 p.m. PST |
Its called The Art of War not The Math of War. Any rules that reduce it down to some sort of statistical probability exercise ALONE are probably failing in my book. I agree that our tables and charts need some mathematical probability in them but their needs to be randomness and morale and confusion and other human qualities built into a good simulation. If you want math there's always Chess? And its way less expensive. |
Lion in the Stars | 03 Sep 2014 7:49 p.m. PST |
If you want math there's always Chess? And its way less expensive. Have you priced nice chessboards and chess sets lately? Buckets of dice games like Flames can be mathhammered. I certainly did some mathhammer for my Cav Recon company. |
John the OFM | 04 Sep 2014 11:41 a.m. PST |
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VonBurge | 04 Sep 2014 1:50 p.m. PST |
Its called The Art of War not The Math of War. War is both an Art and Science! Not much to really be bothered about here. I've been happily playing FoW by my "Gut Instinct" for many years now in FoW, including a successful game against Mr. Riha and his evil calculating skills! :) What I like most about Eric's article is that he tries to break down serious analysis to something that might put us more casual gamers on par with the computer like mechanizations that go on in a brain like Eric's. You certainly have to applaud Eric for writing something to help the more average FoW player to up his game. Really nothing wrong in that and one can skip over his suggestions and game on as they happily have been, and as I will continue to do so, to their hearts delight if they so choose! Cheers, VB |
Mserafin | 05 Sep 2014 9:43 a.m. PST |
Awful. This is just the sort of thing that would utterly ruin gaming for me. It's supposed to be FUN, dammit, not just numbers and probabilities. I think numbers and probabilities are fun! But then I'm a statistician by trade, so of course I do. |
VonBurge | 05 Sep 2014 11:57 a.m. PST |
More power to you Mserafin!!! |
Gerrin | 10 Sep 2014 10:19 a.m. PST |
The simple rules of the game to game by. 1. Have fun, its a game. 2. If your not shooting then you have little chance to win (of course there are those who win without shooting). 3. Be courteous to your opponents even when you want to punch them in the face for being an arse. Thats how I play my games. I play in tournies but rarely get into them to win but rather to meet other folks. Also gives me a chance to game against non local folks. |
ubercommando | 10 Sep 2014 1:10 p.m. PST |
I'm playing Flames of War, not Advanced Squad Leader. |
Lion in the Stars | 10 Sep 2014 2:46 p.m. PST |
I should probably admit that a friend of mine went through and figured out which army would allow him to roll the most dice in each game. He had horrible luck with d6s, so anything he could do to roll more dice was good. He ended up settling on a US Cavalry Recon company with a platoon or two of Armored Rifles. 54 dice per turn, just from the M8s and jeeps. |
Dave Crowell | 12 Oct 2014 6:29 a.m. PST |
Years ago I read an article on playing the odds in Ogre and GEV it was a game changer. You don't need to crunch heavy numbers every theme you play to benefit from this sort of thing. Just run the numbers on what you usually play with and get a sense of how to best utilize the probabilities. Every Wargame or simulation comes down to numbers. "How likely is tank X to hit tank Y?" "A shell of a given size will penetrate such and such Armour how frequently?" "A platoon with shaky morale will hold their ground this often and break and run that often". All math. If you play computer games they are entirely composed of long strings of 1s and 0s. Rolling dice to bring in the randomness is more math. Every time you roll dice you are conducting an excel isle in applied probabilities. "What is the probability of rolling 5+ to hit that tank, and then need a 6+ to kill it? Would I be better off shooting at this tank on a 6+ to hit and a 4+ to kill?" Then there is the math of treat radius. Movement distance plus shooting range… Beyond this distance thence you is not a threat. |
Lewisgunner | 12 Oct 2014 11:26 a.m. PST |
I think the author is wrong in that, observably, dice tend to normalise , that is, over a period of time they will give an equal number of is ,2s , 3s etc. It is also true that the more dice you throw, the more the result will normalise. So, if you are throwing five dice the results will be less predictable than if you throw twenty dice. That is not to say that any one set of 20 dice thrown will give a perfect distribution, but that the more times you throw twenty dice the more 'normalised' the result will be. So his calculation that throwing ten dice to stop an American platoon is risky is not wrong, but the chance of doing so with 15 dice is very much higher. |
Lion in the Stars | 12 Oct 2014 2:28 p.m. PST |
his calculation that throwing ten dice to stop an American platoon is risky is not wrong, but the chance of doing so with 15 dice is very much higher. Not as much higher as you'd think. 10 dice hitting on 4+ "should" give you 5 hits, while 15 dice "should" give you 7.5 hits. I'd want to throw 20 dice at a platoon I need 4+ to hit to ensure I get 5 hits. |
Leadgend | 12 Oct 2014 6:25 p.m. PST |
Managing probabilities is a key skill in winning games and a major reason why the same people always seem to end up in the top placings at tournaments. |
Poniatowski | 13 Oct 2014 4:50 a.m. PST |
I haven't chimed in on this one yet… but for what it is worth… I just play…. I have friends who do calculate the odds (in their heads)… soem folks just cannot roll well and try to tip the odds in tehir favor. Nothing wrong with that, they can play how they want. Not my style.. and as long as they don't bog down a game with me, I am ok with whatever they do. |
Lewisgunner | 13 Oct 2014 5:41 a.m. PST |
Its an FoW fault that six high quality German tanks shooting at ten Russians will score less hits than ten untrained crew Russian tanks shooting back even though the German tanks will cost more.. |