"Mapping The Conflict In Eastern Ukraine" Topic

Interesting.

link

Frome here
link

Amicalement
Armand

Very good.
Funny the flag of the rebels on ria.ru is a confederate battle flag; do they whistle dixie too?

warfarestudies.tumblr.com shows progress (I think it is reasonably accurate).

The number of Ukrainian Brigades probably destroyed or surrounded, the high reported desertion rate, the lack of a viable Ukrainian Air Force, the fact that Ukraine is broke, approaching winter and "rebels" now operating in strength make it unlikely Ukraine can win, even if the Russians don't openly attack. A number of other oblasts are being kept quiet and might not wish to remain in Ukraine.

JCFrog The Russian military has a long history using the St Andrews (Andreev) Cross.

Interesting that blog seems to confirm movements from Russia at Krasnodon. Despite some attempts at counter attack it also shows significant and continual loss of territory by the separatists.

Winter would likely affect both sides, but the Ukrainian position is mainly affected by concentration of opposing forces as they get squeezed, and the problems of fighting a guerilla force in a civilian built up area.

Glad you enjoyed the article boys.

Amicalement
Armand

Geoff,

War is draining remaining Ukraine finances. Winter means Russia cuts off the gas and Ukraine is "power"less. The Ukrainian military have been severely degraded. Local cities and towns trashed and local populations displaced mostly but not entirely to Russia.

The Russians don't need to hold territory – their plan is working. No, I don't like it.

Having just spent nearly a month out there, and having spent a month during winter a year or so ago, and knowing the Ukrainian mentality over the last 10 years or so…

Asked Galina about the gas. We certainly had gas out there. And Galina friend works for the company that deals with gas pipelines. Apparently they are buying gas from Europe now, albeit at a higher price than before (but still lower than Russia wanted to charge)

Not looking good. And the Russians are still toying. Ukrainian ships still on the Azov coast and no Russian naval or air assets known to have been used.

link If true, this is a tank brigade advancing on Mariupol, with artillery support (and a tank brigade would normally have a lot of spgs).
link Second report of the thrust. Russia may get a land corridor to Crimea.

link Still maintaining that it isn't Russians. Note the new rebel leader is wearing Russian camo and a spetsnaz shirt underneath.

link Author states:

"They've broken the front, and are engaging in operational level maneuver. I'd like to note that this was planned and heavily supported by Russian resources. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be rather ineffective at the operational level, and has been most successful when they can apply overwhelming resources in a localized manner over a period of time. By forcing them to fight on the move, across a large area, the rebels have gained a decisive advantage. As is, Mariupol' is barely defended, the border from nearly Saur-Mogila to the sea is basically open. There are reports of rebel troops pushing to Volnovakha. If they taken it, then they hold the N-20 highway heading north to Donetsk, the only major road out of Mariupol' will be the coastal E-58."

"It's unclear what exactly is surrounded, because the government forces fight in separated btln level groups, rather then entire brigades. But the total numbers must be quite large. Also quite a large number of soldiers are just scattered. Finally physical destruction of vehicles and equipment is continuing. If they keep this up, the government will have to pull a lot of things out of storage to replace these losses. " Site has lots of links to Rus/Ukr sites showing combat and battle damage."

this is a tank brigade advancing on Mariupol, with artillery support (and a tank brigade would normally have a lot of spgs)

Not a brigade, but it does have accompanying artillery. Ukraine has confirmed that it does not have any heavy vehicles or artillery to respond, so has withdrawn. Reinforced units will be heading south from Dniper to Mariupol.

Still maintaining that it isn't Russians

Still think they are playing semantics:

A senior MP from Russian President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, Vyacheslav Nikonov, tells the BBC: "I can tell you for sure, there are no official Russian troops there in Ukraine".

The self appointed DPR Prime Minister has confirmed that 3-4000 Russians are fighting in Ukraine, most of which are either ex-services or current services on leave.

So technically, there are no official Russian troops in Ukraine.

…the new rebel leader is wearing Russian camo and a spetsnaz shirt underneath.

Now those you can buy in the market… ;-)

Or Ebay: auction

The Russian intervention is the most positive proof whatsoever that Ukrainian government forces were very successfully advancing and retaking rebel territory.

The rebels were on their last legs ten days ago, and the Russians knew it, and that's why they intervened. Wouldn't have had to if the war was going as badly for the Ukraine government as FPR implies.

Without Russian intervention, and if they had merely secured the border, it would have been over long ago.

In fact I will go so far as to say if Russia had merely secured the border it would never have started. This whole thing has come off the back of [Russian] media fuelled paranoia and lack of effective border control allowing (or at the very least not denying) multiple foreign nationalities to enter at will and take up arms.

5,000 now, with 20,000 Russian reserves/pending errant tourists, just over the border.

Perhaps that is the system. Officially locate them all near the border, then give them 3 weeks leave to do whatever they want (and 300 rounds spending money)…