"Will plastics replace metal miniatures in the hobby?" Topic

a. Plastic will eventually replace metal.
b. Plastic will continue to gain market share, but metal will always be around in the marketplace.
c. Plastic is a fad that will pass soon.

B.

B. until metal becomes too expensive.

b.

b.

B then A

b

B

b

B. There will always be a place for metal minis, unless the production costs for plastics come down enough to make them feasible for small quantities.

Doug

b

b

B, and I know, I have 1 – figure.

B, I really don't like some plastics. Others are ok.

B.

Unless, costs for tooling dies drops dramatically.

B. I will believe A when someone releases a set of Palmyran foot archers in plastic.

Damon.

B.

There is still a market for vinyl.

B

B. and I hope they never replace metal.

Plastics are nice, but at the rate they're replacing metal I'm not certain they'll have taken over the market before something else (the end of the hobby as we know it, very cheap 3D printing, ridiculous postage costs, etc) alters everything (again).

B

Why would the cost of metal go up any more sharply than the cost of plastics, most of which rely almost entirely upon petrol-chemicals?
I would think the next generation of gamers are likely to see some new substances (a la 3D printing) hitting the shelves.

c I hope

… a kind of mix of B and C …

Soft plastic figures have been here for a very long time and are here to stay. 28mm hard plastic figures are more recent and may not stay the course (only time will tell whether what their fans say is true or whether they are just a fad – maybe they will give way to a 3D printed soldier in some new hybrid material?) …

Metal figures have 'heart and soul' in them (the way a printed book is more than just the words that are on the paper) ..

So, for hard plastics, maybe B but I'm not convinced they will continue to gain market share and maybe C, as maybe the current hype will die down …

Phil

None of the above as at some point a new technology or manufacturing process will supplant the current methods. In the short term I would go with B.

B

B. It is cheaper to produce and easier to turn the investment into profit with metal than with plastic due to mold costs. While metals are more expensive as a medium to sell, you do not need to sell as many "units" of metal than plastic to recoup the investment. I can still spring for $8.00 USD packs of say 6 28mm casualties with bricole and the left knee in the air than have to spend $30.00 USD for a box of 30 of them! (What would one do with 30 such specialized figures? Create a game of soccer players who can only play while prone and make contact with the ball with their left knee?….)

You cannot hope to see the specialty figures in plastic unless willing to pay a way higher price for one in plastic and still get figures you cannot use!

Why would the cost of metal go up any more sharply than the cost of plastics, most of which rely almost entirely upon petrol-chemicals?

The majority of the cost for plastics is in setup (making the mold), the per unit cost of materials is very low.

For metals, making the mold is much cheaper, but the per unit cost from materials is a significant part of the production cost.

For metals, the setup costs are fairly stable, and per unit cost will go up and down proportional to changes in the cost of raw materials, which are currently and predicted for the near future to go up.

For plastics, advances in technology have reduced setup costs over the past decade, and will likely continue to do so for a while.

You cannot hope to see the specialty figures in plastic unless willing to pay a way higher price for one in plastic and still get figures you cannot use!

Actually, manufacturers are starting to add a small number of specialty figures to sprues of "regular" figures.

B but watch out for 3d printing.

I think it's a question of scale, smaller scales at 15mm and below will remain a viable economic alternative for metals. While we do have smaller scale plastics (particularly in the WWII era with Battlefront, PSC, etc.), I can't see a mass plastic movement into other eras. Metal smaller scale vehicles may get rarer.

For 28mm plastic is highly economical if you can absorb the start-up cost for tooling. I can see that scale continuing to expand with plastics well into the future.

B---everything is driven by economics. If metal alloys become too expensive, or if the price point of the finished item becomes too expensive---changes will be made.
If you want to get new sales, or new gamers, you would make the price point more affordable---Or you could determine that the only consumers of this product are well established and can afford a higher cost for this specialty item.
In the end, even though we all love this hobby, a business that can't make money or grow the consumer base, is a business headed toward failure.

B. for the foreseeable future.

You will have to shoot me and pry my metal figures out of my cold dead hands before I will switch to plastic.

The multitude of small manufacturers can't afford to switch to plastic anytime soon.

"C" is about as likely as my local Blockbuster reopening.

This reminds me of the time someone tried to convince me that digital photography will eventually replace film… That was in 2001 – guess I showed him!

I don't see how any of the plastics companies can sell enough figures to ever recoup their upfront investment in sculpting and moulds. As a financial analyst by trade, I'm skeptical of any business model that relies on "volume sales" to make a profit. In a previous career, I worked in the plastic injection moulding business and it was not uncommon to pay $100,000 USD for a single mould for plastic parts. That is a big "nut" to cover in an industry that does not have a particularly high level of demand for its products (thousands ) compared to commercial/ industrial applications that can run hundreds of thousands of parts in one set up.

Bon Homme Richard -

You are massively over-estimating the mould costs.

I have it on VERY good authority that a full metal sprue costs £10,000.00 GBP to tool, so a box containing a full sprue and a half command sprue is £15,000.00 GBP (about $25,000 USD).

At £20.00 GBP a box, you have to sell 750 to break even.

I reckon the Perry's sell at least that at Salute alone each year on their new plastic release.

So after that, it's almost pure profit.

There is also absolutely no reason why there can't be multiple figure/unit types in a box, which blows the "can't get the variety" argument out of the water.

The answer is clearly B, moving almost completely to A (+ 3D printing) within 5 years.

You have to remember, there are a lot of dinosaurs on TMP, out in the real wargaming world where money is tight and gamers are younger, plastic absolutely rules already.

out in the real wargaming world where money is tight and gamers are younger, plastic absolutely rules already.

Except that isn't the real wargaming world at all, now is it

Phil

C, unless a home 3D printer?
When I started you had Airfix plastic figures and metal officers/specialists. It's just gone full circle, the larger plastic/resin figures plastered in skulls with silly weapons representing the toy/starter end of the hobby.

B, this is a no brainer, until everything gets superseded by 3D printing with bio-plastic or some similar follow on technology.

-Will

B . i'll believe A is possible when i see obscure ancient armies in 15mm plastic , or anything in 6mm .

At £20.00 GBP GBP a box, you have to sell 750 to break even.

I think the break even would be a bit higher . You are using full retail price in your calculation rather than using your contribution margin. :)

You have to account for your materials, packaging, distribution and overhead costs as well, but I take your point that tooling costs are lower than I estimated. But still, that is a significant entry barrier (up front cost) in this little cottage industry that we call Wargame products.

D. No

B

B

When

B

I believe 'B" but earnestly long for 'C."

B. As long as the hard plastic doesn't "dry out" and become very brittle. If that happens…. then whatever the new material is but metal will always be in the market.

I prefer metal…. the plastic miniatures (if based singles) tend to fall over and have reduced "stay in place" ability compared to metal. But if travelling, the plastic are "lighter" in weight.

a

A I hope