"The Chinese Navy Now Matches (And Maybe Surpasses) " Topic

…The Japanese Navy.

"Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I. Perhaps just as importantly, this weekend is also the 120th anniversary of the first Sino-Japanese war: a war between China's Qing dynasty and Meiji Japan. A war which China lost, and which has been a chip on China's shoulder ever since.

As Hong Kong's SCMP reports "China's loss of the first Sino-Japanese war has been attributed to a disorganised navy. Although the northern fleet equalled, some say exceeded, the Meiji navy in terms of firepower, it was annihilated because it lacked coordination among its military units."

In the context of constant recent flare ups over various contested East China Sea islands, one can see why the anniversary of the war coupled with a sudden spike in nationalistic ambitions of Japan's PM Abe, would be a sensitive issue to China. However, as we can see below, China no longer has an inferiority complex when it comes to its navy compared to that of Japan…"

Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

It's not just the numbers that count though; as in any conflict equipment quality and *crew* quality matter a lot. In the Sino-Japanese War the Chinese fleet was probably materially superior but not nearly as well manned as it's Japanese counterpart; that's why it lost.

-Will

Numbers only tell part of the story. Japan's modern navy has a longer maritime tradition than China's, and its US supplied equipment are still qualitatively superior than China's right now. So I would still give Japan the edge in training and equipment.

Quality is a major force multiplier, as is training and experience.

I suspect they'll need 6X number of vessels, of better quality than they have now (ex-Russian kit/designs), in order to win.

From what I've read the PLAN is reasonably professional. But that doesn't necessarily equate to good tactics.

I wouldn't trust either side to be superior than the other in terms of tactical ability. The Japanese military is not that well regarded in society and struggles to recruit quality candidates who prefer civilian careers.

I think Japan has a clear technological advantage though.

One issue with Senkakus is that they're closer to China than Japan. This means Chinese Navy also has support from ground based PLAAF aircraft as well as ground based large radars.

The Japanese mainland is 1,000+ kilometres away. Okinawa is closer but it's also in range of short range Chinese missiles and most Japanese air and naval units are based on Japan proper.

Hence Chinese submarines can deter or at least stall deployment of Japanese naval vessels.

"Okinawa is closer but it's also in range of short range Chinese missiles and most Japanese air and naval units are based on Japan proper."

I would imagine those missiles wouldn't be taken kindly by the 20,000+ Marines of III MEF link stationed on Okinawa. So, to have a small shooting war, the Chinese could not risk direct attacks on Okinawa. I also doubt they could get away with it on Japan proper without getting the USS George Washington Battle group involved. link
Things would definitely get out of hand at that point.

Depends on how the war progresses and how PRC and Japanese leadership handles matters. I suspect the way things are right now, the US would automatically become involved in any war with China regardless of who the instigator is or what the circumstances are.

"Hence Chinese submarines can deter or at least stall deployment of Japanese naval vessels".

Assuming they aren't first sunk by Japanese subs and mines lurking in the local waters.

Japan is holding amphibious landing exercises with the USA, as we speak, in order to be prepared for various scenarios with China.