" Why China and Japan Could Fight" Topic

"How the unthinkable could happen in Asia—and the ramifications for America.

Few people believe that either China or Japan would deliberately start a war in the East China Sea. Most analysts assume that an armed clash could only occur through accident, misunderstanding or unauthorized acts by junior officers acting without, or even against, orders. These are not remote possibilities, of course. They already make the risk of war dangerously high. But we underestimate how high that risk really is if we think this is the only way a war could begin. I think there is a real possibility that fighting might be started deliberately by one side or the other, and unless we understand the circumstances that might prompt that step from either side, we will not be able to take steps to avoid them.

First, we must be clear that neither side is at all likely to deliberately start a fight over possession of the disputed islands themselves, or even of the resources that might lie around them. They are not worth a military conflict to anyone. But the dispute has never been about territory. The islands are simply tokens in a contest to define the roles and status of Asia's great powers over coming decades. These are issues over which states might well choose to start a war…"

Full article here
link

Amicalement
Armand

What's the tipping point for risk vs gain. If one side is confidant that they would win and the rest of the world support them in their claims of victory, acheive it quickly and move on (look at Russia) then they may attempt or risk a war.

Great Powers cannot back down after a small defeat.
Russia won on Crimea because Ukraine is not a Great Power.
Both China and Japan are.
There can be no such thing as a "minor war" between these two.

The two basic premises of the article, that:

1) Historically, no participants deliberately intend to start major wars, but major wars happen because of mutual minor escalations, and

2) Definitive public statements of position tend to help avoid misunderstandings.

would appear to be irrefutable.

Mind you all these hypothetical scenarios avoid one thing – China and USA are nuclear powers.

The unwritten rules that kept the peace in the Cold War still apply – no-one wants major conflict between large powers because of massive risk of nuclear annihilation.