"A Near Future Sino-American War? Likely? Inevitable?" Topic

I'm sure having all our computers and electronics built in China will turn out to be absolutely no problem in a hypothetical shooting war.

I'm sure the DoD isn't happy about that.

Dan

I would have thought a civil war or insurgency was more likely in China than a war with the US. I just don't see China in it's current political and social state lasting very much longer.
The political system is utterly corrupt, both morally and financially, and that breeds massive resentment outside of the few favoured areas that have been allowed to have a more Western outlook.
I doubt it will happen soon but who knows what's really happening there. A relatively peaceful break up along the lines of 90's Russia is probably the best we could hope for. But a violent shattering of China, with ex Generals becoming warlords, is also possible.

Has anyone read the Invasion America series of books by Vaughn Heppner? They are about a future war between China and the USA. Pretty good books

If there was a Sino-US conflict, it would probably develop from a regional conflict like China vs. Japan/Korea/Russia/India rather than some nefarious plot in Beijing to invade the US.

It does not serve US or Chinese interests to enter into a direct conflict; we are too intertwined and it would be too costly. Thus, if US and Chinese troops do end up on either side of the battlefield, there will probably be a bloody regional conflict or two that pushes this outcome.

Anyone seen "Dragon Day"?

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dragondaymovie.com

Dan

No but I want too!!! :o

China does not approve, as would be expected:

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Thank goodness for independent films.

Dan
PS. Took some doing, but it seems that the symbol that looks like a zero sliced in half is actually half of the word for China:

Could the landing of lunar rovers like China's "Jade Rabbit", result in an actual land claim over areas rich in Helium 3 (3He)?

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Dan

More likely proxy wars, for example:

(i) as US client states tangle with China. Lots o sirmish material there

(ii) in areas where China has been buying real estate or access to raw materials. Think US backed vs Chinese backed African wars.

Both of those, and Soviet/Chinese or India/China flashpoints could make for interesting games.

But without escalation?

Dan

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blackhatthemovie.com

Wow. The upcoming movie "Blackhat" apparently has the U.S. and the People's Republic of China working together to save the U.S. and the world from cyber attacks!

Is that film supposed to be drama/action or comedy/action?

I think it's time to get 15mm PLA figures and play out what will actually happen in real life, perhaps in a small Midwest town setting:

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Most of the fully supported invading units would be in the East and West coast cities of the U.S. anyway, right?

Dan

A bit of a nonsequiter, but bear with me:

A (long) while ago, I was writing a paper on the pirates of Fujian and Guangdong in the Ming-Qing transition. While researching, I found a report written by a local bureaucrat, talking about the debate over an Imperial decree regarding the weapons that could be owned by civilians. It appears as though more urbanized civilians were unperturbed by this decree, which limited the power and magazine capacity of automatic crossbows as well as the availability of the less-powerful 'street legal' varieties, while the people in the country side were furious and complained that without access to powerful automatic weapons (really just 'semi-automatic' crossbows) they could not effectively defend themselves or their property. As an American, it was hilarious to read.

Anyway: a fun 15mm sci-fi game could involve a reverse Red Dawn type scenario, fighting through rural China against peasants armed with bolt-action rifles, WW2 SMGs, obsolete AT and AA guns, and farming implements . Apparently, both of our cultures would really make an invader regret attempting to hold any territory at all.

Wouldn't it be similar to Japan's conquest of Manchuria?

Dan

Most likely reason would be if Taiwan declares independence.

China's one declared "red line" is that Taiwan will always remain a part of China.

Just last week, Taiwan's ruling party, the KMT was soundly trounced in their elections by the independence-minded DPP Party. If party fanatics in the DPP go-ahead and declare and independent Taiwan, china will have no choice but to respond militarily.

If China attacks Taiwan, the USA will get drawn-in. Japan will probably get pulled-in when US bases get attacked. Eventually Australia, the Philippines and other Western-leaning countries will get pulled into the conflict.

It would be ugly.

I think it equally likely the west would leave Taiwan out to dry.

This definitely brings to mind the Future Dogfights Episode on H2!
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McWong73,

The west is already leaving Taiwan "out to dry", for fear of displeasing mainland China's government.

Dan

Update -

Just found an entirely different poster for the 2013 independent film "Dragon Day" that some of you with expert photoshop abilities might turn into a post-invasion propaganda poster:

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It almost makes me want to look for a 2 or 3 inch Mao plastic figure in that pose, to put on a pedestal base in the middle of terrain representing an American town or city square or parade ground.

Anyway, I hope you guys can use it for your gaming needs, such as the original premise of the Red Dawn remake, which would have be a Chinese invasion scenario.

Dan
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Russia and China sign a Non-aggression pact and trade treaty worth $450 USD BILLION. Last year we sign a Pax Pacifica Treaty with China we details a non-aggression pact for the Pacific Ocean (i.e. no combat between us and them in the Pacific). Which actual means since China has a Non-Agg with Russia so now do we have one also with them. The Big 3 are created.

Currently there are at least 2 battalions of Russian troops on the west coast. Also a company of Chinese Special Forces are at a West Coast Joint Base.

Wonderful!

I wish shared your optimism, I really do.

But, if I have learned anything from history, is that those agreements are hardly ever worth their parchment. If anything, they are clever ways to stall the enemy, while you continue to train, build up, repeatedly test the enemy''s resolve, etc., until such time as you're ready to act.

Germany and Poland signed a Non-Agg in 1934, and we all know how well that went.

Didn't Germany and the USSR have a similar Non-Agg during WW2? That only lasted a whopping 2 years (1939-1941).

Didn't Japan sign a similar agreement with the USSR in 1941?
The agreement "allowed both nations to free up large numbers of troops occupying disputed territory in Manchuria and Outer Mongolia to be used for more pressing purposes." link

And didn't the Allies sign a similar Non-Agg with the USSR right after the USSR changed sides, to jointly attack Germany while, at the exact same time the USSR continued to honor its 1941 pact with Japan, another of the Axis members, allowing Japan to kill so many Americans, Chinese, etc. in the Pacific?

And those are just WW2 examples.

Dan

I wrote a scenario where Mexico is destabilized by a Civil War between the government and drug cartels and South/Central America form an alliance. In order to get some muscle behind them the South American Alliance woos Russia and China which readily agrees to deploy military forces there. At the conclusion of the Mexican Civil War the drug cartels are victorious and their remaining military forces are equipped and trained by Russian and Chinese forces in exchange for certain concessions like access to their oil in the gulf coast and also as using Mexico as a staging area for any operations against the US.

Cool scenario, I like it.

And I second that!!!

Dan

Lookingglassman,

Before China and Russia strike any sort of military agreement, first thing that would need to happen in your scenario would be for them to begin signing between them some pretty major mutual trade agreements …

Dan

Inevitable.