MarescialloDiCampo | 21 May 2014 1:14 p.m. PST |
1) Russia vs Georgia 2) Thailand vs Insurgents 2014 ongoing 3) Iraq vs Iraqi Sunni Insurgents 2014 ongoing 4) Syria Government vs Syrian Insurgents 2011-present 5) Russia vs Ukraine 2014 6) Nigeria vs Boko Harum (insurgency since 2001) 2013-14 ongoing 7) Mexico vs NTOs (Narcotics Trafficking Organizations) or Cartels (Mexican Narcotics War) 8) US/NATO vs Taliban/AQ – Afghanistan War 9) Yemen vs Al Qaeda (ongoing) 10) Pakistan vs Insurgents (Northwest Pakistan) 11) Somali Civil War (ongoing) 12) Egypt government vs M Brotherhood (insurgency?) 13) Sudan insurgency (ongoing) 14) Central African Republic insurgency (ongoing) |
Feet up now | 21 May 2014 1:56 p.m. PST |
Personally the Falklands with the devastation and loss of lives and ships so easily due to modern technology. Please define modern time scale wise? |
Stealth1000 | 21 May 2014 2:15 p.m. PST |
I agree. The Falklands. No one saw that one coming. |
FingerandToeGlenn | 21 May 2014 2:17 p.m. PST |
Unpredictable as in we didn't expect it, or because of the twists, turns, and outcomes? I remember a New York Times article before the first Gulf War that predicted we'd lose hundreds off aircraft and pilots to the superior Iraqi air defenses. The loss rate was certainly unpredictable. |
dwight shrute | 21 May 2014 2:41 p.m. PST |
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SJDonovan | 21 May 2014 3:00 p.m. PST |
The Cod War came as a complete surprise to me. I remember at the time thinking, "How the hell did we get into a war with Iceland?" The Falklands was a shock as well. I was in school when that one started and though I had heard of the Falklands I had no idea where they were and managed to get them confused with the Shetlands. So when the war started I thought Argentina had invaded Scotland. |
Observer | 21 May 2014 3:10 p.m. PST |
I'm not sure that the Falklands War really was completely out of the blue. There had been "Operation Journeyman" in 1977 where British ships had been dispatched to the Falklands to head off Argentinian actions. link |
IronDuke596 | 21 May 2014 3:15 p.m. PST |
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Rrobbyrobot | 21 May 2014 4:06 p.m. PST |
Another vote for the end of the Cold War. |
cavcrazy | 21 May 2014 5:41 p.m. PST |
The most unpredictable modern conflict? My first marriage! |
nsolomon99 | 21 May 2014 5:46 p.m. PST |
End of the Cold War is a top one for me. Wow! Watching those couple of days as the Berlin Wall was first, climbed by civilians and then second, they were allowed to start hacking at it and dismantling it. Sure rocked my world – happily! Just inconceivable as I was growing up in the 60's and 70's. |
Graycat | 21 May 2014 8:52 p.m. PST |
I was working for Task Force Games when the Falklands war came down. There was great consternation at the office. Oh wow, there's a war over the Falklands! Pregnant pause. Where the heck are the Falklands? |
darthfozzywig | 21 May 2014 9:05 p.m. PST |
Where the heck are the Falklands? "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." |
Martin Rapier | 21 May 2014 11:16 p.m. PST |
I thought they meant the Faroes, which really would have been odd. I recall being very surprised when Turkey invaded Cyprus. Not sure this what the OP had in mind, as mentioned the casualty estimates for GW1 were way off. |
Whirlwind | 21 May 2014 11:58 p.m. PST |
Afghanistan. Argentina at least claimed the Malvinas/Falklands beforehand. I don't think anyone would have predicted anything close to the events which led up to the invasion of Afghanistan. Regards |
pigbear | 22 May 2014 3:05 a.m. PST |
Given the list in the OP (all ongoing other than the first one) I suspect the question might be which one has the most unpredictable outcome. In that case there are several contenders but I would pick Syria. |
Ron W DuBray | 22 May 2014 6:16 a.m. PST |
If you think the cold war ended you have not been paying attention. They let the west pay for Billions in clean up and making new jobs and they have been building new weapons and systems the whole time. They also have a lock on maned space flight. Now they are starting to use their power again. |
Martin Rapier | 22 May 2014 7:16 a.m. PST |
"I don't think anyone would have predicted anything close to the events which led up to the invasion of Afghanistan." No, or invading Iraq. Oh well, I suppose all those Middle Eastern countries looked the same, so close enough was good enough at the time. pre-DH note. It was over ten years ago, and I claim immunity. "I suspect the question might be which one has the most unpredictable outcome." I thought that too. In which case the Falklands, many people at the time thought it was very much a huge gamble, absent the use of nuclear weapons. |
Whirlwind | 22 May 2014 10:36 a.m. PST |
@Martin, I don't think Iraq was quite as unpredictable as Afghanistan, since there had already been a war involving the same protagonists within a decade and there were ongoing air operations, although the details of the events would have been pretty tricky to foresee! |
Centurian | 22 May 2014 2:42 p.m. PST |
I also vote for the Gulf War (1990-91 Desert Storm). I was very much surprised at the time that after the war with Iran, Saddam decided to have a go at Kuwait. |
Toshach | 22 May 2014 7:47 p.m. PST |
I think the the Six Day War was the most unpredicted war. Not only was it a big surprise, the lopsided results were ahocking. |
billthecat | 15 Jun 2014 11:41 a.m. PST |
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Echoco | 22 Mar 2016 4:37 p.m. PST |
I would have gone with Korean War but it wasn't on the list. The initial hostility itself and then China coming in, the back and forth captures of hills. |
15mm and 28mm Fanatik | 22 Mar 2016 5:59 p.m. PST |
Our current war on terror against Islamic extremists is unpredictable. The recent attacks in Europe and California bear witness to its unpredictable nature. The elusive enemy is not a nation-state with clearly defined borders, hides in plain sight and could be your friendly next door neighbor. "The enemy within" never ringed more true. Although Bill's ongoing war on TMP against unwelcome loser trolls and photobombers like "Field Air" comes a close second. |
Mike Bravo Miniatures | 24 Mar 2016 6:06 a.m. PST |
If the OP means unpredictanle as in 'didnt see it coming', then Libya 2011 for me. Decades out in the cold, then post 2003 relations just starting to warm, sanctions lifted, a 'new quality' in EU-Libya ties, then all of a sudden UK and France (of all countries) decide to not only intervene, but to actively pursue regime change. Pure opportunism, with little apparent thought to the consequences despite lessons supposedly learned in Iraq. If it means unpredictable in outcome, then historically any of the Congo wars, or currently any of the sub-saharan conflicts like in S Sudan, are depressingly unpredictable. Well the outcome in corruption and human suffering is predictable but who knows how they'll end up militarily and politically. |
Oh Bugger | 24 Mar 2016 8:53 a.m. PST |
Yes indeed, Sarkozy and Cameron in a fit of post imperial longing I suppose. The POTUS read them the Riot Act over it lat week. It was a mad escapade and we will pay more for it yet. |
zippyfusenet | 24 Mar 2016 10:40 a.m. PST |
The POTUS read them the Riot Act over it lat week. We supported the folly at the time. The outcome was perfectly predictable. It was a mad escapade and we will pay more for it yet. A-yep. Repeat after me: Benghazi. Benghazi. Benghazi. |
Oh Bugger | 24 Mar 2016 11:13 a.m. PST |
In fairness the USA suggested caution but the deadly duo said don't worry we know about this stuff. Hence the POTUS's understandable pique that he fell for it. I agree though the outcome was perfectly predictable. |
Oh Bugger | 24 Mar 2016 12:00 p.m. PST |
As long as you have not put your teeth in it'll be OK. |
Lion in the Stars | 24 Mar 2016 12:51 p.m. PST |
I'd say that the most unpredictable conflicts have been the Falklands and Desert Storm. Don't think anyone realized just how deadly anti-ship missiles were before the Falklands, and the predicted casualties followed by the utter collapse of the Iraqi Army blew everyone's minds. I predicted that we'd be in Iraq and Afghanistan for at least a decade, at the time we went in. |
15mm and 28mm Fanatik | 24 Mar 2016 4:21 p.m. PST |
The POTUs did admit that Libya was his biggest "foreign policy regret." Did he mean taking part in the military campaign against Gaddafi or allowing Britain and France to sway him? |
Oh Bugger | 24 Mar 2016 5:28 p.m. PST |
Possibly the latter and maybe both. Presumably his rebuke was intended to convey where, at least some, of the inevitable boots on the ground are going to come from. |
Fred Cartwright | 26 Mar 2016 10:46 a.m. PST |
The POTUS read them the Riot Act over it lat week. Of course it is not like any POTUS has ever started an ill advised conflict! :-) FWIW I think Cameron/Sarkozy were pushed into it by public opinion. A case of the "Something must be done!" When Gaddafi started using his airforce to bomb civilians targets. The fact that the cure was worse than disease escaped most people. |
Bangorstu | 26 Mar 2016 11:29 a.m. PST |
I'd say most modern conflicts have come more or less from a clear blue sky. Six years ago who thought Syria would be where it is? Ditto Ukraine, Egypt, Afghanistan, Libya… |
Oh Bugger | 26 Mar 2016 4:34 p.m. PST |
FWIW I think Cameron/Sarkozy were pushed into it by public opinion. Not in the UK public opinion had already pushed MPs into rejecting a war against Syria and despite the propoganda Afghanistan and Iraq had diminished any public appetite for another ME war. Cameron was personaly keen for legacy resons- either Spectator or the Telegraph said. Maybe maybe not but he will be regretting it now. |
Weasel | 26 Mar 2016 4:47 p.m. PST |
The conflict in Libya was one that I had not anticipated in any way, shape or form. |