Mako11 | 06 Apr 2014 11:50 a.m. PST |
I've been wondering when we'd see this, so it looks like the trouble in the region may not be over: link It's unclear if the pro-Russian protestors/activists in Eastern Ukraine are really that, or Spetznatz (Spetzcatz? – copyright 2014 – photos of the masked activists weren't shown, so I don't know whether they were small, cute, and have furry paws). I guess on the plus side for Russia, most of their troops are conveniently just over the border, ready to intervene "if needed". |
Ed Mohrmann | 06 Apr 2014 12:04 p.m. PST |
Shades of the Sudetenland
or the 'Polish Corridor' |
HistoryPhD | 06 Apr 2014 1:40 p.m. PST |
If supposed "Ukrainian soldiers" suddenly appear on the Russian side of the border after having "attacked" and are already conveniently dead when first photographed, look out. |
GeoffQRF | 06 Apr 2014 2:18 p.m. PST |
The lead photo is misleading. They were civilian, not dressed in military uniform: link
It's not the first time that Donetsk has seen this sort of protest lead to them breaking into Government buildings. Actually, this one is far smaller than the numbers protesting a few weeks ago, but expect a bit more of it leading up to the elections in May. That led to the arrest of one ring leader, which saw protests almost disappear. |
darthfozzywig | 06 Apr 2014 3:29 p.m. PST |
|
GeoffQRF | 06 Apr 2014 3:41 p.m. PST |
Unfortunately it's a global world, with a global economy, affecting one of the largest world players. Don't expect this issue not to have impact elsewhere. |
Mako11 | 06 Apr 2014 3:47 p.m. PST |
Hmmm, the first pic I saw on-line, showed a bunch of men, some smiling and some not, in military uniforms, all wearing berets. I guess it depends upon how you access the news feed. Saw the article on Yahoo News today. Based upon the photos, and captions, apparently it is the 15 man unit the Ukrainians have detained. Only one in the pic was holding up an AK rifle. |
GeoffQRF | 06 Apr 2014 4:35 p.m. PST |
I think this sums up the situation quite well: "Dozens broke away from a rally and got past a police cordon to enter the building" Rallies from a few weeks ago were allegedly 10,000+. This was about 2000, and a small group broke through, smashing in windows and hanging a pro-Russian banner. Note that the main aggressive element are usually wearing full face balaclavas. "In Luhansk, police fired tear gas at dozens of protesters who broke into the local security service building in an attempt to force the release of 15 pro-Russian activists who were arrested earlier in the week and accused of plotting violent unrest." That will probably be the 15 you are referring to. |
GeoffQRF | 07 Apr 2014 1:48 a.m. PST |
Possibly of greater concern: But in Luhansk on Monday police said "unknown people who are in the building have broken into the building's arsenal and have seized weapons". Slightly different than civilians protesting on the streets, and with potentially far more deadly consequences. |
Mako11 | 07 Apr 2014 1:49 a.m. PST |
Yea, just saw that on the news: link |
Mako11 | 07 Apr 2014 9:19 a.m. PST |
Even worse, apparently a Ukrainian commander has been shot and killed by a Russian soldier, while preparing to withdraw from a Crimean naval base. Haven't heard any other details on that this morning. |
Ascent | 07 Apr 2014 9:52 a.m. PST |
It must be the cynic in me but my first thought was 'I wonder how many are actually from Ukraine?' There was a bit on the BBC website saying some of them spoke with a Russian accent. |
darthfozzywig | 07 Apr 2014 12:26 p.m. PST |
There was a bit on the BBC website saying some of them spoke with a Russian accent. I must admit I would have a hard time telling them apart, but I'm no expert. |
GeoffQRF | 07 Apr 2014 2:22 p.m. PST |
I was discussing the accent issue with my wife. To those who speak it, a Russian accent is distinctly different from a Ukrainian accent, and the further west you go the stronger the difference becomes. But you are not the only cynic. People in both Donetsk and Kharkiv have been saying for some time that the people protesting and not from either city. Galina reckons you haven't seen protests deeper into Ukraine because the Russian border accent is quite distinctive and would be obvious elsewhere. Initial reports were of bus loads of Russians crossing the border (and we have photos of 'tourist' buses heading from Rostov to Athens that mysteriously stopped for a prolonged period in Donetsk at the same time as the main protests. Residents in Kharkiv allege that many carried timetables with times, dates and locations of planned protests, but I have been unable to find actual proof of that. It would seem fairly damning if that proved to be true. At the time the 'tourists' (as they were called locally) were present, the protests were at their strongest. Ukrainian border guards reckon they turned away about 700 Russians who wanted to cross into Ukraine, because they were in buses full of Russian flags, banners, baseball bats
after that the protests dropped off significantly. Coincidence? |
Mako11 | 07 Apr 2014 2:37 p.m. PST |
Someone has a plan
. Apparently, Azerbaijan, and some of the 'stans are a bit nervous too, now, as well. |
piper909 | 07 Apr 2014 11:10 p.m. PST |
I am personally more worried about this lime shortage. How are we gonna get thru the Texas summer without margaritas? Mexican Mules? Gimlets and gin rickeys? |
Mako11 | 07 Apr 2014 11:58 p.m. PST |
Don't worry, all those stolen limes will show up eventually, now that the price is exhorbitantly high. I miss my fresh limeade
.. |
GeoffQRF | 08 Apr 2014 2:00 a.m. PST |
I believe that is down to Mexican cartels, not Russian FSB
but you never know. |
Solzhenitsyn | 08 Apr 2014 5:13 a.m. PST |
There can't be anymore trouble in the Ukraine. The Russians have been warned, sternly warned, by the White House and State Dept to not cause anymore trouble. So that should be the end of it. Right? |
Barin1 | 08 Apr 2014 5:50 a.m. PST |
well the thing is, that even that there might be Russians stirring the protest,you can easily find several thousand activists in large cities like Donetsk/Kharkov/Lugansk. They have seen the tactics working in Kiev, they're using the same in their cities. To my mind, their actions are bargaining chips. You don't want us going away to Russia? Give us more rights locally and make less things controlled from the capital. Now, 70 protesters in Kharkov are facing tougher jail terms than the guys in Kiev who were putting riot police on fire
.this might not end well. |
GeoffQRF | 08 Apr 2014 6:25 a.m. PST |
Lol Solzhenitsyn :-) Of course incidents like this don't do anything to dissuade Russia that it is all under control: link The recent protests are notably smaller than they have been recently, and there is still a feeling that the police are holding back for fear of escalating a bigger riot, or being accused of an excessively heavy handed approach leading to the perfect excuse for intervention. |
Mako11 | 08 Apr 2014 12:56 p.m. PST |
Getting worse. Now some people are holding 60 others hostage in Eastern Ukraine. Others are calling for referendums like in Crimea. Looks like the plan is moving right along. |
GeoffQRF | 08 Apr 2014 3:10 p.m. PST |
It will float around like this til 25 May, but note the rally sizes are much smaller than before. There are three border oblasts (kinda like counties) which have large(r) Russian speaking populations (and speaking cynically much easier for people to cross borders and stir up trouble) which are seeing mutterings about wanting referendums, but unlike Crimea they have no autonomy to be able to do so. Which 60? You referring to the 70 Arrested in Kharkiv when police took the building back? |
Barin1 | 08 Apr 2014 10:50 p.m. PST |
No, police claimed that protesters had hostages in the security building in Lugansk that they have occupied, however looks like most of them (or all?) were set free overnight. From what I heard from the people living there most of the population will prefer having more freedom/autonomy within Ukraine. In the end this may not be called "federalization" as Kiev politicians hate the word at the moment, but unless people will get confirmation on language status, governors and mayors election, and more freedom with local taxes there will be trouble. The people also understand, that if Ukraine continues down visa road with Russia, it will hurt them hard. Some people consider emigration to the west or to Russia. As for Russian troops, it was announced that they're not crossing the border without decision of UN security council (read – never going to happen ;)) Both sides are claiming involvement in terror and unrest acts by their opponents, however no firm proof was produced so far
Also in the news – Russia is preparing implementation of national card payment system to reduce the risk of blocking the transfers – just in case
|
GeoffQRF | 08 Apr 2014 11:26 p.m. PST |
Sounds like Poroshenko is positioning himself for just that; EU but not NATO, and increased autonomy for eastern regions. Ukraine announced visa controls for Russians (mainly to restrict undesirables freely crossing the border and causing trouble). I'm not sure if it was ever actually introduced, or had the desired effect, but coincidentally the degree of protest dropped off considerably after that. Russia hasn't officially announced visa controls for Ukrainians, as far as I am aware, but friends in Kharkiv say the queues at the passport office are out the door as Russian border control are implementing it anyway. Visa and Mastercard were both blocked, causing a bit of chaos, but both were reactivated a few days later. Perhaps they are worried that the US is still holding onto that string. BBC report of how the situation is reported within Russia, which carries a very different bias from western media: link |
Mako11 | 09 Apr 2014 2:09 a.m. PST |
Yes, apparently the Russian seperatists/agents/employees (depending upon whose info you believe) took the 60 hostage, and are still holding four people: link Also, being reported here are Putin's claims that the USA has 150 personnel working in Ukraine to undermine, or agitate against Russia, and he also fears US NGOs (non-governmental organizations) are working against Russia, and stirring up trouble. |
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 2:52 a.m. PST |
Russia has been claiming Greystone involvement for a while, something denied by both the US government and Greystone: link It seems to have stemmed from these videos, shown on Russia Today (a Russian state-sponsored TV with a dubious record for reporting quality): link Thing is, I cant hear them actually shouting 'Blackwater' (as they claim); I can hear 'rabota' (work) – will get Galina to watch it later tonight. But why would Greytone/Academi employees, dressed in US-style gear and carrying US weaponry be openly running about in the middle of Donetsk streets? They are highly likely to get themselves set upon by sizeable and somewhat aggressive pro-Russian crowd
thus proving US involvement and providing a pretext for Russia to
step
in
. hold on. ;-) Daily Beast claimed that 'informed sources' in Moscow had said the troops [in Crimea] belong to Vnevedomstvenaya Okhrana, a private security contracting bureau similar to Academi that is close to the Kremlin: link |
Barin1 | 09 Apr 2014 3:34 a.m. PST |
When they write that the actions in Crimea were preparations for Yanukovich comeback they've lost all credibility in my eyes ;) Actually, vnevedomstvennaya okhrana (or VOHR) are not speznaz supermen, but normally providing guarding services for factories, supermarkets, hospitals. They're also a part of ministry of internal affairs, i.e. they're police offcers. I have not seen them equipped like we see on pictures from Crimea, too. link |
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 3:35 a.m. PST |
link Ukraine's interior minister has warned pro-Russian activists who have taken over state buildings in eastern cities to enter talks to find a political solution or face "force". Mr Avakov said an 'anti-terrorist operation' was under way in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv and would "be resolved in 48 hours" either way. Seriously would we do any less if a similar situation occurred in Manchester/Leeds, Los Angeles/Miami or St Petersburg (the one in Russia, not Florida
I deliberately picked regional cities, not capitals)? "There are two options," he told journalists, "political and negotiations – and force
For those who want dialogue, we propose talks and a political solution. For the minority who want conflict they will get a forceful answer from the Ukrainian authorities." Seems reasonable to me. |
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 3:36 a.m. PST |
When they write that the actions in Crimea were preparations for Yanukovich comeback they've lost all credibility in my eyes Lol. Yes. A bit of journalistic creative licence, I think.
normally providing guarding services for factories, supermarkets, hospitals
I've seen those guys. They usually looked bored to tears. |
Barin1 | 09 Apr 2014 5:55 a.m. PST |
<< The less Americans know about Ukraine's location, the more they want U.S. to intervene >> link |
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 6:05 a.m. PST |
"Where's Ukraine? Each dot depicts the location where a U.S. survey respondent situated Ukraine; the dots are colored based on how far removed they are from the actual country, with the most accurate responses in red and the least accurate ones in blue."
That is really quite worrying
especially those who indicated the central USA (?) |
Altius | 09 Apr 2014 6:14 a.m. PST |
|
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 6:16 a.m. PST |
I'm wondering how many of them would locate the US as being in Ukraine? |
Patrick Sexton | 09 Apr 2014 9:48 a.m. PST |
I have a feeling that those answers were less than serious. Or were reported with a "look how stupid we are" agenda. |
GeoffQRF | 09 Apr 2014 10:00 a.m. PST |
A few of them are blatantly "I don't care, that'll do", such as the one in the water off Australia. Yes KB, but that one only dates back to the Crusades, so you are forgiven. Galina's interpretation of the footage of alleged PMCs is that those filming saw them as Russians, not Americans, and were shouting (between swear words) for them to go get a job. |
Altius | 09 Apr 2014 11:49 a.m. PST |
I have a feeling that those answers were less than serious. Or were reported with a "look how stupid we are" agenda. Well, how sure are we about that? Because I've had a strong suspicion that I don't live in a land of geniuses and exceptional people. And every day, there are breathtaking examples that just drive the point home. This chart kinda validates my suspicions. |
Putins Pal | 10 Apr 2014 5:29 p.m. PST |
Nothing to see here. Freedom loving people of Donbass I shall come for you!! |
GeoffQRF | 11 Apr 2014 2:10 a.m. PST |
It seems that the troubled east has decided it prefers these people in charge
As my 5 year old sone would say
seriously? |
Calculon | 11 Apr 2014 3:36 a.m. PST |
Some interesting pics of military build up on Russia/Ukraine border: link |
Mako11 | 11 Apr 2014 3:51 a.m. PST |
Just heard on the news that Russian aircraft and helos are now in position at the forward bases near Ukraine, if needed. Satellite pics showed them wing-tip to wingtip, for the jets. So much for the Russian pullback. I guess the 48 hour deadline has been ignored, so the Ukrainian leadership is now poised to take further action, or not, against the insurrectionists in Eastern Ukraine. |
GeoffQRF | 11 Apr 2014 4:24 a.m. PST |
They are 24 hours off that deadline. The jets are about a squadron, nothing really major. They have been there a few weeks. |
Barin1 | 11 Apr 2014 5:19 a.m. PST |
I guess they'll not be storming the protesters before 4-side negotiations. If the meeting fails, there will be complications, as so-called "political dialogue", offered to protesters holds no water, just promise to return to discussions about more autonomy in the future. Therefore, they'll stay, and might be stormed. If Svoboda militants will be taking part in the attack, it will make the consequences even worse. I'd probably leave them be, sooner or later they'll find something else to do
Geoff, reconstructors were a visible part in Maidan too
there was even a small trebuchet built by protesters. There were even pictures of some guys looking very 40K ish on Kiev streets ;) |
Rod I Robertson | 11 Apr 2014 6:33 a.m. PST |
Geoff: Your picture hints at the rebirth of Kievan Rus. Soon antisocial re-enactors will be spreading out through the river systems all across Europe and Asia, pillaging the weak and working as Varangians for the powerful. Meanwhile the evil Boyar Putin schemes to bring them to heel and make them do his own bidding. This could be the plot of a film that would put Sergei Eisenstein's "Alexander Nevsky" to shame! Rod Robertson |
GeoffQRF | 11 Apr 2014 11:57 a.m. PST |
I agree Barin, any attempt to remove them by force must be very carefully handled to show it is done by official rule of law, not by Svoboda loose cannons. The 48 hour time limit is clearly an intention to force open negotiations, but they are limited on what they can offer, and those inside may be entirely unwilling to compromise. |
GeoffQRF | 13 Apr 2014 11:59 a.m. PST |
Any professional opinion on the assault in the initial stages of this link? link Not the group huddled by the wall, but the team working on the left? |
GeoffQRF | 14 Apr 2014 2:33 a.m. PST |
Unfortunately the more deadlines that pass without positive action, the more that these groups think they can seize buildings with impunity. |
Daniel S | 14 Apr 2014 6:50 a.m. PST |
Like the group that led the assault in Kramatorsk those men have both military training and the organisation needed to act as a unit. But the performance is not necissarily "Special Forces" level, so far I've not seen anything that could not have been done by well trained infantry conscripts or similar troops. Hard to evaluate them from such short glimpses but the Kramatorsk group seemed less well trained than the group seen in the link. (Made poor use of cover at times and their actions seemed to be less well directed) |
Tgunner | 14 Apr 2014 8:09 p.m. PST |
They didn't stack to enter. No over watch really. Rather amateurish. These might be militia types. Ukraine is looking bad here claiming that they'll take action but doesn't do anything. I wonder if they have a real red line? |
Tango01 | 14 Apr 2014 10:35 p.m. PST |
Could Russia Defeat a Ukrainian Insurgency? "There's no doubt the Russian military has the means to invade mainland Ukraine. But whether it can hold conquered territory is another question—especially if Kiev puts up a fight. That's the conclusion of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, Stockholm's government-funded military think tank. The agency—known as FOI—doesn't doubt that Russia can invade. But it does question whether Moscow has the ability to secure territory in mainland Ukraine, given the potential size of the area Russia would need to secure—and absent the natural defensive barriers of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March
" Full article here. link Amicalement Armand |