"No Sign of Russian Pullback on Ukrainian Border" Topic

A NATO general has stated that there is no sign of a Russian pullback on the Ukrainian border:

link

Despite the report of a battalion of troops pulling back from the region, it appears there are no real moves along the border to de-escalate the crisis. Conjecture is that the unit pulling back may be part of the normal rotation of Russian conscripts.

Due to that, NATO appears to be taking some additional steps to bolster the Baltic nations, and to reassure Poland as well.

On a related note, Sweden and Finland are considering their options as well:

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Apparently, Russia has also conducted military exercises near the Finnish border, and an ex-aide to Putin has said that Finland might be next.

In the meantime, Russia appears to be using economic warfare against Ukraine, raising their price for natural gas by more than 43%, which means citizens in the country will see a 50% increase in their gas bills starting May 1st:

link

Yeah but Putin called Obama…he blinked. I wonder if any of the Tmp members who called Obama weak will admit they were wrong about US sanctions?

It was Putin's version of "April Fools" joke

I suspect Putin made the call to rub salt in the wounds, and it doesn't seem like he's really running scared, especially given the increase in gas prices to Ukraine, lack of a pullback of troops, maneuvers near Finland, lack of any significant, unified economic sanctions from the EU, etc.

He's probably on the floor, from laughing so hard.

Meanwhile, we're pondering sending another vessel into the Black Sea to make a statement in support of Ukraine. Not sure if that means there will be two of them there, or if the other one already withdrew, and may be sent in again.

So is Finland a substitution or an addition to the previous list of Eastern Ukraine, Estonia, Poland and West Germany? I just want to be clear so that if you are ever right about something I can notice it.

"Yeah but Putin called Obama…he blinked. I wonder if any of the Tmp members who called Obama weak will admit they were wrong about US sanctions?"

Not until he actually does something.

Addition, since he's looking to expand on Russia's sphere of influence, either thru direct occupation, and/or through intimidation and economic leverage.

A lot of the 'stans have been threatened too, and apparently Romania is a bit worried as well, in addition to others in the region.

NATO's making some minor moves, so clearly they are a little worried as well, otherwise, they would be doing even less than they are currently.

Just to note, some people said that the protests in the Ukraine would never amount to any real action, while I differed with that opinion, and Yanukovych was chased out of the country.

Also, technically, Strilkove is/was a part of SE Ukraine, separate from Crimea, and has been occupied by Russia, so I got both of those right.

You know a week ago I was thinking would it be so bad to station a heavy brigade in Poland. Then I remembered that the EU has as many people and just as much money as the US. So if they want to keep the Russians out of their back yard, let them spend their money and put their young men in uniform. Not like the Russians have invaded Long Island or Nome.

"There are a number of very concrete reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to send his troops into eastern Ukraine.

The first is that, although the region has many ethnic Russians, it also has many Ukrainians who are likely to resist a Russian occupation. So, unlike the swift and bloodless takeover of Crimea, an occupation of eastern Ukraine is almost certain to embroil Russian troops in serious fighting.

Eastern Ukraine is also a much larger territory, requiring a substantial force to pin down. And unlike Crimea, there is no obvious geographic limit to this territory: the Russians therefore risk becoming involved in a major military adventure with no immediate "exit strategy".

But the most important reason why Mr Putin will not send his troops into Ukraine now is that he has other ways of achieving his objectives.

He knows that Crimea is his to keep, and that no Western government is likely to challenge this newly acquired Russian province. At Sunday's meeting in Paris between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Crimea was not even mentioned in the communique released to the public.

Russia's most immediate task is to prevent Ukraine from joining Western economic and security structures such as the European Union or Nato, to keep the country in suspended animation as a buffer zone, belonging to neither East nor West.

And that can be accomplished by persuading the West to accept what Moscow likes to call the "federalisation" of Ukraine."

It's true that a major military incursion 'could' get all the way to the Polish border. The Ukrainian Army would give a fair account of themselves, but Russia would steamroller over it. However the guerilla force that would develop would ensure that Russian troops and supply lines were never secure, and the potential threat to a NATO member (Poland) would ensure a much stronger military objection.

The Soviet system of relocating military units away from their homeland means there is a good chance that some of the Russian soldiers are actually ethnically Ukrainian, which would cause additional problems.

Russia wants Ukraine as part of its own trade package. That has clearly gone out of the window with a non-friendly government in charge, so Russia now wants Ukraine to sit on the fence and join neither the CIS nor the EU.

Unfortunately it has backfired. Ukraine cannot function without external support at this stage, and the harder Russia leans on it to remain neutral, the more likely it is to lean towards the west.

Russia doesn't have the military firepower to take out Finland.

The terrai nis no better than it was in 1939 and the Finns have an army of over 200K.

Putin can't afford those kind of casualties, even if the Swedes and NATO let them get on with it.

"No Sign of Russian Pullback on Ukrainian Border"

No sign of any war drums being beaten either. 12 days and counting since Crimea returned to Russia.

Things in Ukraine seem to be volatile over and above Crimea.

Aside from the legitimacy questions about the new government which will need to be resolved I see that a leading figure in the neo nazi faction had been killed while resisting arrest. His people are threatening retaliation. The neo nazis feel they did the heavy lifting in toppling the old government and they are armed. They may make a move.

I still cannot see Putin going any further though Geoff is right imo on the neutrality issue.

I did notice the proffered EU trade deal that brought all this to a head has effectively been agreed then put in limbo again by the new regime. It might be cheaper all round if the EU just improved the deal.

…a leading figure in the neo nazi faction had been killed while resisting arrest…

My wife knew this chap for many years. His passport (they have internal as well as international passports) was stamped 'mental patient', but nobody wants to keep him in an asylum, because nobody wants to pay for it. He did go off to fight the Russians in Chechnya, and came back a slightly bigger nutter than he left.

He was the same idiot who was waving an AK in Rivne town square demanding things, and the same one who had himself videoed beating on a poor administrator in the presecutors office – which was the primary reason for the attempted arrest, as he basically handed them evidence of an assault. He resisted arrest and shots were fired.

He had a history of petty crime going back years. He used to steal cars and drive them across the border "because nobody believed he could be clever enoguh to actually steal anything", then attempted to get himself into the intimidation game, but was pretty much disassociated from the local organised crime groups (if you want to run a business in Ukraine, you need to know both the central administration people who stamp the documents, and the local protection rackets who maintian order) ;-).

He tried to get my wife to pay him for protection when she had her business out there. She told him where he could keep his baseball bat… that's how influential he was.

Despite the CNN footage of a massed funeral march, Rivne didn't really miss him. My wife was pretty active in the city, but didn't recognise any of those present. He's an excuse by a small local faction to try and stir up trouble and, like most slightly sensationalist media stories detached from the reality of everyday living.

The troops are there bcs. Russia has not yet achieved its goals.
- federalization of Ukraine ( might be unlikely, as Ukrainian government will be resisting it)
- guarantees for non-ukrainian minorities (there were some moves in this direction already)
- disarming of Right Sector/Svoboda ( in process)
- Putin is waiting for the result of Kerry/Lavrov negotiations ( in process )
- he had to keep the pause before he will agree to talk directly with new Ukrainian government

Even with all that, it absolutely doesn't mean, that these troops are there for attack. They're there as a pressure and a threat to show what CAN happen if things go badly.
As I wrote in another thread, if Russia really wanted to occupy Ukraine, it should have been done before Ukraine formed national guard, made (not too successfull) mobilization and deployed the troops on the border. Providing that Russia has sent several trains with armor and ammo that belonged to Ukrainian troops from Crimea to Ukraine the attack seems unlikely.
Plans to occupy Finland is pure nonsence. Never happened during Cold War, is not going to happen now.

disarming of Right Sector/Svoboda ( in process)

Yes, that was good to see yesterday. I'm not even sure they really are Svoboda, just radical elements within it.

Very informative Geoff thank you. There is no substitute for first hand info.

The Russians [read that as Putin] are going to do what they want to do regardless of sanctions, phone calls, etc. …

The Russians have just moved or switched off the Glonass network, so GPS signals will now be weaker or non existent in some areas

The Russians have just moved or switched off the Glonass network

Source?

…so GPS signals will now be weaker or non existent in some areas

Globally, or localised?

Glonass is the Russian equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System, or GPS, and is designed for both military and civilian use… It provides an alternative to Global Positioning System (GPS) and is the only alternative navigational system in operation with global coverage and of comparable precision

Glonass appears to be an alternative, not supplemental to GPS, and is supported (in addition to GPS) on handheld GPS devices such as the Garmin eTrex, and mobile phones such as "Xiaomi Tech Company (Xiaomi Phone 2), Sony Ericsson, ZTE, Huawei, Samsung (Galaxy Note, Galaxy Note II, Galaxy S3, Galaxy S4), Apple (iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, iPhone 5S), iPad Mini (LTE model only) and iPad (3rd generation, 4G model only), HTC, LG, Motorola and Nokia."

I can't imagine them shutting down the whole network (and risking contracts with all those companies globally) for the sake of a poke at Ukraine.

From 2010: link

Russia may grant Ukraine access to Glonass for military use

They may have just revoked access to Glonass for the Ukrainian military, which might affect military units that don't also have access to GPS.

(Russian combined Glonass/GPS receiver)

…the Russians are going to do what they want to…

The big question is, can they really afford to? It's not a 'one country world' out there anymore, and Russia needs access to a global economy as much as the next country. Politically, diplomatically and economically isolated would not be a good move.

Of course that assumes that the EU leaders, and/or others will really move to isolate them.

My guess is Moldova will be next, since apparently some have already asked for Russian "assistance", and its pretty isolated.

Time will tell.

Then again, perhaps Vlad is in a better mood today, since apparently his divorce is final.

The problem for the US and EU is that Russia has really BEEN isolated for a long time already. Further isolation won't really make a big effect.

For another example of major trade restrictions backfiring, look at South Africa in the 1980s and 1990s. They built their own nukes, they built an arms industry that's among the best in the world in terms of products (I'd buy SADF gear over US for the most part!), and rebuilt fighters from the ground up to far exceed the capabilities of the originals.

Right, adding Moldova to the list…

Meanwhile they're still not in Kiev.

Are you predicting Kiev, chris?

There is a youtube videowhere victoria nuland talks with the us ambassador in ukrania… they say: " the eu".

i think its funny that us tmpers talk about the eu making a stand against russia, figthing a war against russia, that crimea is our problem… sorry but we dont think so. If you think there is a war to be fight there, please go and fight it.

But please dont use the red scarecrow again. You dont want to fight other,s people wars, you say? Thats all right, we dont want it, too. So please stop telling us that this is our war. Its not.

Can't believe she is still employed……

Germany has stopped military contracts with Russia. Nasa has cut ties too except for the international space station. Oh, and Putins getting divorced.

I suspect that may put him in a better mood…..

link

"Moscow is pressing Nato to explain its plans to beef up military presence in Eastern Europe"

Perhaps the rapid annexation of Crimea and an estimated 40,000 troops building on the Ukrainian border has a little to do with it? ;-)

Mr Lavrov accused Nato of exaggerating the importance of Russian troop movements on the borders of eastern Ukraine. He said Russia had the right to move troops within its territory and that the forces currently near the border would return to their permanent bases after completing military exercises.

The concern iseems to be that 40,000 is a lot of troops, stationed right on the border, and they appear to be doing very little actual exercising…

There are apparently Ukrainian tanks:

The Reuters caption reads: A Russian serviceman stands near Ukrainian tanks on freight cars before departing from Crimea

Were they allowed to take them out?

Meanwhile in Kyiv: link

Ukraine's special police shot dead dozens of anti-government protesters in Kiev in February, an initial government inquiry has found. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov told reporters 12 members of the Berkut police had been identified and three of them had been already arrested… The inquiry had established that eight of those killed were hit by bullets from the same machine gun

Shots were undoubtedly being fired from both sides (and as my wife said, this is a country where something like 1 in 3 do own a gun), but there was clear reportage footage of police firing assualt rifles and high powered rifles (shotguns seen could have been firing rubber bullets) at body height (i.e. not up into the air as a deterrant)

Oh, and Putin is getting divorced

…admid rumours that he has been seeing this young lady, and may have married her secretly last year:

Latest investigation into the death of Muzychko reveals that he shot himself in the scuffle:

link

"The inquiry by the interior ministry said Oleksandr Muzychko, aka Sashko Bily, had shot himself in the heart as police tried to wrestle him to the ground during the chase…. The investigators determined that Mr Muzychko, 51, had shot twice as police were trying to arrest and handcuff him. The first shot scratched his skin, they said, but the second proved fatal. The policemen tried to treat him at the scene and called an ambulance.

It's a likely scenario, and does seem to be in keeping with the man, and the very fuzzy footage. Note that this article seems to play down the big leader image.

<<were they allowed to take them out?>>

Yes, Putin ordered Ukrainian equipment of the units,still loyal to Ukraina to be shipped out of Crimea, courtesy of RF ;)

America needs to pay less attention to the Russians and more to its mass shooting.

Don't know if you've been watching the news, but that is all they have been talking about. And as usual, one "bad apple" … And the Army will jump thru hoops trying to make sure the public knows they will "fix" the "unfixable" … This happens everytime something like this occurs, they just "didn't see the signs" … no one thought this could happen, etc., etc. …

Yes, I heard they are actually handing out cocades and rifles in armories right now, and all wifes and unmarried woman are sewing snow suits from blankets..

No, cant say anything about Sweden, but Finland definetly aint going to join NATO anytime soon. Latest poll still shows that no more than 22% of the citizens being clearly pro-NATO, while 59% being clearly against it.

Also, we are not expecting Russia to invade anytime soon. Ofc, the "putins former aide" comments were more than worrying when put together with Pravdas "Finland as Russias hong kong"-article, but first of all, Pravda is pravda. Its like using "verkkomedia" or "verkkouutiset" as a good source for articles relating finland, which would be utterly..oh, this article did. Well..

Second, I just dont trust people who flee from their country due to political reasons, and then start quoting their former superiors without actuall evidence about those quotes or what they contain – even less, when hindsight included.
If he would had, lets say, in 2005 when he left russia, rushed into closest news agency yealling "OMG! RUSSIA IS GOING INVADE CRIMIN, FINLAND AND BALTICS IN CLOSE FUTURE! VLAD JUST TOLD ME!" I would take these things far more seriously, but now it feels like fishing good guy -points.

I have no doubt that Putin would want to build Russian Empire again, but Im also quite confident that he aint stupid. Taking over part of a country which allready contains 3/4 russian speaking population is different thing than taking over country which has ran on its own for allmost 100 years now, and which is, as far as I know, good trade partner and popular holiday resort for west- russias/St.Petersburg middle-class.

Oh, and large military excercises near finnish border are no big news. Happens allmost annually (if not twice), domestic yellow-paper media does large enough show about them every time, with allmost classic quote "Look how Russian arms itself in (finlands) eastern border!", then having some generic picture from V-days parade including as many tanks as possible in cover..

(Oh! Funfact vol eight million – one day, I was googling purscase specs of those ex-dutch Leo 2A6s, just wanted to know would they be refitted with MG-3s instead of MAGs – and I ran into russian bloggers page who was afraid of Finland and what they might do with their new Leos! I was extremely amused to notice fearmongers exist in both sides of the border..).

Yes, I heard they are actually handing out cocades and rifles in armories right now, and all wifes and unmarried woman are sewing snow suits from blankets..

It's the "I heard…" statements that are the ones I eye with suspicion. In student advice we refer to it as "… my mate says…" It is invariably wrong. Is there any evidence that is actually taking place, or is it just hearsay?

Or was that a joke? :-)

Or was that a joke? :-)

Im not sure, but I can tell you that most of the snow has allready melted.

Also, Im quite confident that having moomin-patterned blanket wrapped around me wont affect much in terms of camouflaging, though I have heard that there is certain areas in south-western finland where it might actually work.. Link