"Phillipines 2 China 1 in the South China Sea" Topic

Looks like they are now getting ready to play bumper boats in the South China Sea:

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A Filipino resupply vessel successfully evaded a Chinese Coast Guard cutter, despite the latter's cutting across the former's bow a couple of times, and being trailed by another Chinese ship.

Apparently, a US recon plane watched overhead, and reporters were on the vessel to document the action.

A previous resupply mission was thwarted by the Chinese, so the Filipinos conducted an airdrop to resupply their crew, whose vessel was run aground on the shoal on purpose, to help bolster their territorial claims in the region.

Seems to me David Manley's Cod Wars rules would work nicely in the near future, until the Chinese decide to escalate further.

On a related note, the Phillipines has committed to purchasing more than $500 USD million for a dozen South Korean, FA-50 jets, and a handful of helicopters, to aid in defending their territory, and South China Sea claims.

If Chinese escalate to anything more than now, no ruleset would cover the thumping the defenceless Philippines would get before US assistance starts flowing through.

WWII minesweepers versus modern destroyers and frigates backed up by a massive air force is not really wargameable. :P

True, but you can play bumper boats in the "Western Phillipine Sea" (alternate name for the South China Sea the Phillipines is now using), with opposing coast guard vessels, and fishing trawlers/supply boats.

You can also game smaller skirmishes on the shoals in the region, and conduct a fight onboard the LST to "liberate" the shoal from Filipino squatters.

If someone will make the SK FA-50s in 1/300th, or 1/600th, you can have some fun with them too.

Add in Vietnamese allies, and other ASEAN nations to better balance the scenarios out.

Of course, once full escalation starts, China wins, but they'll lose on the world stage, so that inhibits their victory conditions considerably.

Bring out the big dog USN, if China gets too belligerent.

12 SK F/A-50s versus several thousand PLAAF and PLAN jets doesn't seem like a very fair fight.

Hell even 4 F/A-50 with no AWACS and limited GCI versus AWACS vectored Su-27/J-10/J-11 is a suicide mission.

As if the Vietnamese would go to war with China especially to support a Phillipines claim? That's like saying Islamist Iran would've sided with USA if the USSR invaded Germany in 1984.

And Malaysia and Brunei have nothing to offer militarily and certainly wouldn't go to war for Philippines.

ASEAN is a talk fest and nothing else. It is not NATO nor the EU.

So any escalation in wargaming is auto-lose for Phillipines.

Only way this works wargaming wise is to make it China v USA.

Do you know the Phillippes claim is based on "we want it cause it's there and no-one else had it before" (Res nullius)?

All the other countries have far stronger claims (history and geography).

Funny how the hypocrite Westerners get angry at Russians for occupying what was their own country to 1954 but support a Phillipines claim based on nothing at all.

Mr Hobbes you present an excellent case but what if a certain nation once friendly to a reoccupation force wanted to deny its historical rights…

If we keep partitioning nations,areas with profound regional sectionalism might be revisited by those same problems.On the other hand tabula rasa…open season…what do we want in 21st century 7 min warning world(at least in 80s it was 22 mins).Non biased and non political .

You could throw in Vietnam, which has a history of fighting against Chinese aggression in the past, and has some very comparable hardware to that of China. Not the same numbers, but the same quality of aircraft and vessels in many cases.

Vietnam, and other countries could, and I suspect will come together to fight China's SCS claims, since the enemy of my enemy is my friend, in many cases. It's the only way they have a fighting chance, and will most likely try to avoid military conflict, and to fight the war in the international court, and that of world opinion.

China will not sortie thousands of jets over a little shoal in the South China Sea, even if they can reach it on a round trip. Perhaps 2 – 4 jets at a time, or a small packet of them from their carrier, when they get their pilots and crews trained for that.

Who said anything about supporting their claims, or those of others in the region?

Of course, the Phillipines and Vietnam do have better claims than China to much of the West Phillipine Sea (South China Sea) since the shoal is within the Phillipines' 200 mile territorial limit.

I thought these pictures might serve to better illustrate the relative quality of the forces involved.

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You could throw in Vietnam, which has a history of fighting against Chinese aggression in the past, and has some very comparable hardware to that of China. Not the same numbers, but the same quality of aircraft and vessels in many cases.

Nowhere near close to the same numbers. There might be just under 50 Su-27/-30s and some of those are already approaching the end of their lives. The rest is MiG-21 and Su-22.

The Navy is also really small – there's some modern gear ala Gepards and Sigmas on order but these are lighht frigates and not the full size frigates and destroyers of the PLAN.

The PLAN also has plenty of heavy anti shipping capability.

The Malaysians are much the same in terms of capability – there's 60 jet fighters of various serviceability (Su-30s, F/A-18D, MiG-29, Hawk 200, F-5) and a small navy with limited capability.

Vietnam, and other countries could, and I suspect will come together to fight China's SCS claims, since the enemy of my enemy is my friend, in many cases. It's the only way they have a fighting chance, and will most likely try to avoid military conflict, and to fight the war in the international court, and that of world opinion.

Court of Western opinion you mean?

I doubt the Vietnamese would support Filipino claims cause it reduces their own

[quote[China will not sortie thousands of jets over a little shoal in the South China Sea, even if they can reach it on a round trip. Perhaps 2 – 4 jets at a time, or a small packet of them from their carrier, when they get their pilots and crews trained for that.

If it came to a shooting war like the ones we wargamers like to play, then they will sortie hundreds of jets.

Not to mention Chinese frigates and destroyers which are far more capable than anything the Filipinos or the Malaysians pack.

And the Vietnamese Navy is too small and is wisely investing in submarine capabilities.

Of course, the Phillipines and Vietnam do have better claims than China to much of the West Phillipine Sea (South China Sea) since the shoal is within the Phillipines' 200 mile territorial limit.

Small skirmishes happen all the time, even with outmatched foes.

Yes, China will most likely win any protracted engagement, unless uncle Sam weighs in with the USN, but that doesn't mean others won't stand up to them to make a point.

Nope, world opinion, since I suspect only Russia, Iran, and possibly Syria will weigh in on the Chinese side of things for the South China Sea claims.

Actually, Vietnam and the Phillipines could agree to partition the SCS between their two countries, and I suspect are likely to do so, in order to bolster their claims and thwart those of China, which is much more removed from a lot of the area they are squabbling over.

Others will oppose them, or abstain at the UN.

For that matter, all of the ASEAN may agree on some sort of sharing plan, in order to oppose China, and so they get at least a piece of the pie, instead of China getting the whole thing.

Given Filipino capabilities there is no protracted conflict.

All the Chinese have to do is place a few frigates, submarines and maritime patrol aircraft in the region and order them to engage Filipino forces that move to the shoal and it's over.

Makes for poor wargaming.

Against Vietnam it's different as they share a land border.

But the Chinese and Vietnamese militaries have moved a long way since 1979 – the Chinese are more advanced and more professional whereas Vietnam has lost it's veteran troops that were still around in 1979.

Here the wargaming opportunities are far more interesting with potential for large scale conventional ground, naval and air warfare.

China wins by default in the end simply due to numerical superiority as well as access to far more force multipliers – recce satelites, cruise and tactical ballistic missiles, AWACS, better developed army aviation etc.