"Estonia - The Next Domino to Fall?" Topic

Personally, I think SE Ukraine, and/or Moldova will be the next flashpoint between Russia and Europe, but the Baltics are a possibility too.

Apparently, enough of a concern that NATO is sending small packets of aircraft to the region to "bolster" defenses there, and show their resolve.

The following article gives a good overview for why the little town of Narva, in Estonia, may go the way of Crimea eventually, and call the whole viability of the NATO alliance into question, if they don't move to stop further Russian annexations:

link

Bolstering my pet theory on Estonia is that a certain individual is almost always wrong with his proclamations (no, I don't think he's a TMP member), so we'll see if that streak continues. Time will tell.

Here's another interesting article on the Ukrainian situation:

link

Hopefully, I and the article writers are wrong, but the news certainly provides an interesting backdrop for modern scenario writers looking to do a bit of gaming with ultramodern tech, in new Cold War Goes Hot conflicts.

For the Baltics, you can play out air, sea, and naval maneuvers on either the small, skirmish level, or the grand scale, if desired.

The German press, and the comments on German media sites (in German, not the foreigners posting in English), tend to be rather pro-Russian. Didn't help any that the CEO of Siemens just held a visit with Putin during which he fawned all over :utin.

Seems the Germans are all in favor of standing up for freedom and resisting land grabs, except if it interferes with exports.

This is the beginning of the end of NATO.

Recent history doesn't have the Germans opposing either land grabs or tyrannical autocrats. I seem to recall them cutting a nice deal with another Russian (excuse me. "Soviet") autocrat to carve up Eastern Europe. I bet for the next one, the Germans will be smart enough to let others do the shooting.

Keep in mind that Russian psy-ops operatives are very active on European media & news websites at the moment and will even target individual blogs and forum of much lesser importance. Fair number of Swedish websites have been targeted that way and FSB will have far more operatives able to write German than Swedish. Add in East German die hards and west German left wingers and Communists who still favour Moscow and it is easy to create the apperance of pro-Russian support online.

You don't see France or Britain rushing to take actions that would realy damage their affairs with Russia either and Germany has far more to loose given it's trade ties and this at a time when other parts of the EU depends on the Germans to bail them out from their own crashed economies.

Narva is a hotspot but the situation is still very diffrent from the Crimea, for one thing there are not thousands of Russian troops based inside Estonia nor is Narva easily isolated from the rest of Estonia. Any move against Narva is likely to end up much messier than the Crimean operation.

Yea, seems like economics rules policy, whether good, or bad.

Tango01 posted an article about that in the last day or so, listing the forces the Chinese are using to outmaneuver and defeat the USA in Asia, assymetrically, e.g. the media, legal avenues, and moral arguments (not really sure how they can win those), if I recall correctly (in addition to their rapidly increasing economic power).

Yea, we have a lot of operatives here too, Daniel.

Appears that the velvet-glove approach Putin used in Crimea worked really well.

It is interesting to consider what NATO would do if "non-Russian" troops entered Narva to save the local populace from being ethnically persecuted. Somehow, I doubt they'd want to start a shooting war over that, either, and removing them without force would be very difficult, I suspect.

Well if they are not wearing insignia and not identifying themselves as Russian then under the Geneva convention they can be treated as terrorists or criminals and shot. Be a bit difficult for Putin to protest about it, if they weren't supposed to be there.

Im more worried about Moldova & Poland than I am about the Baltic states right now. Hoping Putin is satisfied with what hes got. But the 40-80k troops on the Ukrainian border worry me. They are easily enough to make a sweeping run to Transnestria.

That's what I proposed for Crimea as well, but of course, we all know how that would have ended.

My thoughts were that he couldn't really complain though, since none of his troops were "in" Crimea, and he had no intention of invading, so logically, they must be spies, criminals, or terrorists not falling under the Geneva Convention.

Not that anyone really believed Putin at the time.

Estonia is in NATO and therefore is fine.

Putin isn't (I hope) that stupid.

Given the higher living standards compared to Russia, it would be difficult to win a referendum if he tried to repeat his Crimea policy.

Russian public opinion won't stand for anything other than bloodless victories – and the Baltic states won't be bloodless.

Given co-operation in the area with NATO, expect Sweden to get involved and possibly Finland.

The Poles have a big enough military to look after themselves.

Moldova is the enxt domino. Getting hysterical doesn't help matters.

What if nothing else happens??

Which at the moment does seem to be the most likely option …

Yes, I think Putin and his boys pushed the envelope as far as they think they can get away with, without ruffling any more feathers …

If nothing happens then we don't get the new cold war that so many jingoistic nutters are hoping for.

Meanwhile our ally Egypt sentences 529 people to death on one day, nary a word in the American press…

Turkey, a NATO member, currently has over 60 reporters in prison and is trying to ban Twitter and Youtube…

Saudi Arabia, another ally, won't let women drive but that's a cultural thing, never mind their support of fundamentalist Islamic schools…

But let's bang the war drums about a relatively unimportant regional conflict between cold war has-beens.

You know what irks Putin the most? The fact that Russia really is nothing more than a regional power and that it actually can't challenge NATO directly in any way shape or form. That's been eating at him for a decade. It's why he takes his shirt off for photos all the time.

You know what should irk us? Sending 1.4 billion dollars to prop up the current Ukrainian basket case government (just one in a long succession of basket case governments). That money is gone, gone, gone, though it will buy whoever their next leader is a couple of nice houses.

Chriskrum,

All good points except the last one. First, 1.4 billion is a drop in the bucket for the United States and the IMF. The West's lack of paying attention to developments in Russian after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, while not actively supporting democratic reforms has now come home to roost. The United States, along with Britain and other western nations, made promises to Ukraine if it would give up its nuclear arsenal. We did not keep those promises. Why? Because we had won the Cold War and Russian was marginalized, or so we thought. Instead we helped set the stage for a strongman like Putin to fill the leadership void and we are now at this moment in history. We will continue to live in interesting times.

"Angela Merkel describes Russian president as 'out of touch with reality' after urging him to back down from Crimea occupation."
Quoted from The Guardian

The U.S. in in for 1.4 billion, the IMF is in for 16-18 billion, I think. It irks me because I firmly believe that money will unquestionably support crooks (who may have pretty hair braids).

I disagree about the promise to the Ukraine. It took about a week after this crisis started for someone to dig up the "nuclear weapon" guarantee angle. We agreed to respect their territory, we didn't give them NATO membership where we would step in and defend them from whatever regional tiff they found themselves in. There's been a rather silly attempt to stretch the fairly limited language of that agreement into a reason for direct interference in the Ukraine (ironically, direct interference is what we said we wouldn't do).

Russia is about 30 years from being a social democracy with a strong executive branch, ironically, not too dissimilar to the U.S. Putin is the apex of the pendulum swing back toward authoritarianism which is firmly rooted in the mismanaged opportunity during the Yeltsin years. He's the apex, it will swing back, the push-back has already begun and his Crimea adventure is very much a reaction to that internal reality.

We're handling this in the best way -- sanctions and sidelining them from the G-8 -- it's all reversible and it doesn't radicalize any elements though it will, over time, weaken Putin. He's not a nefarious evil genius. He's a rather weak and predictable strongman, driven mostly by a hurt ego. Being able to predict what he's going to do doesn't however mean that one always has many options to change his course, especially in areas directly contiguous to Russia.

And then there's NATO, desperate for a mission to justify its existence. It should never have been allowed to expand in the first place, but whatever, that was all part of the NATO needs a mission agenda. Guess what? Expand far enough and eventually you'll find that war you're looking for. We almost got it with Georgia. If we'd been a bit quicker with Ukraine we might have gotten it now.

Maybe we should offer a few African countries NATO membership? That'll guarantee NATO has a reason to exist.

"…1.4 billion is a drop in the bucket for the United States " … Yeah, but I know alot of places in the USA that could use it productively …

Chriskrum, I can agree with a lot of the points you take except those regarding Putin…
He has played the Crimea rather well. His predictability is that of an irate chimpanze, whose antics are quite unpredictable when he bites someones face off.
Its probably crafted a bit more into a plan.

NATo (OTAN) is somewhat past its sell by date…

Europe's defense reductions like that of the US have left them somewhat unprepared.

The US is still planning reductions that will take place over the next 2-3 years. That 1.4 billion would have been useful for DoD.

Maybe we should offer Russia NATo membership and then we would have a sizeable force that seems ready (at least by comparison to Italy, Germany and other European nations). Italy is involved in a drawdown and maintains much of the military by "contract" volunteers for 3, 6, 12 months – sometimes renewable.

Good article…Can a Weakened NATo stand up to Putin?

link

chriskrum, you're dead wrong on points 1 and 2, though at least on the latter, Egypt is finally taking some action against Muslim radicals and terrorists.

A shame we don't do the same.

Making observations about Putin's future, possible plans is not wishing for them to occur.

Putin and Russia are a global power, since he still has all his nukes, is making more of them, and would like to reconstitute the former USSR through force and intimidation. Thinking anything to the contrary is just folly.

Yes, I am aware that other than Israel, we have no real friends in the Middle East.

chriskrum, you're dead wrong on points 1 and 2, though at least on the latter, Egypt is finally taking some action against Muslim radicals and terrorists.

A shame we don't do the same.

Really? Without proper trials? On what charges, specifically? And that's the country you want?

About what I expected, and it validates a lot of my opinions.

I'm dead wrong if you're a fan a fascism.

I happen to favor representative democracies, freedom of expression, freedom of the press, judicial due process, and a whole lot of other radical liberal ideas that a large proportion of our allies don't.

And if you seriously believe whatever government that emerges in Ukraine isn't going to be a variation on one of its previous kleptocracies with a strong nationalistic rightwing element than you likely only noticed the Ukraine in the last month and haven't been watching it develop over the past two decades.

We don't get anything by putting money into their economy except future blowback.

A lot of the people in Egypt were given trials, and were jailed before, but released under Morsi, and we all know how that turned out. They are so radical that even the people there recognize it, and are willing to take strong action to control them.

Appeasement doesn't work with radicals.

For those that were not imprisoned previously, I have no way of knowing whether they've been given trials, or not.

If not, they should.

However, they also shouldn't just be given a pass because their previous leader (Morsi) was a MB member/sympathizer. Many of them were jailed for killing, and/or attempting to kill their previous leaders, and others in the country.

I agree, we should just let Ukraine's economy work itself out.

They chose poorly, and the socialist system didn't work out very well for them, economically.

Sadly, others seem to want to mimic those failed policies, regardless of what history, and decent economic teachers would teach them.

Those who fail to study and learn from history are destined to repeat it.

Russia as a regional power? Thought it was a bit more than that.

Friends who have spent a great deal of time there describe it as "Upper Volta with nuclear missiles".

A trial in Egypt isn't exactly the same as a trial in the USA.

For a start I assume the questioning process in the USA doesn't routinely involve torture or sexual assault/ rape…

And I think you get a lawyer….

Still, hell, they're Muslims, right? So who cares?

Trouble with sound bites is they reveal but also conceal reality. Still, Russia is more than a regional power, whatever the POTUS might think, which revealed a worryingly complacent mind set.

This is really Blue-Fez territory, but seriously, does anyone think a regional super-power like Russia to sit and watch as a friendly president is deposed in a violent revolution (including some real neo-Nazi scumbags) sponsored by the West?

Sponsored by the West? You have no basis whatsoever for that statement. It's a long ways from "welcoming a certain political development" to "sponsoring" it.

Now seriously, do you think the West had any responsibility to step in and defend Yanukhovych from the wrath of his own populace? Who are we to tell the Ukrainian people they have to accept a corrupt ruler who had gone crawling to Moscow, despite his people's rejection of Moscow's economic diktat?

Neo-Nazi scumbags? A lot more of them in Moscow than in Kiev.

"Russia is more than a regional power"

I would like to see the case made that Russia is more than a regional power.

They have very little ability to project military forces out of area.

Their economy is almost entirely dependent on mineral resources (I have two items, afaik, in my house that are Russian-manufactured: Zvezda model kits and an IKEA dish set, which aren't exactly sophisticated or display engineering/IT skill to manufacture).

They are very influential in the states of the FSU (i.e., the region). Elsewhere, their diplomatic influence relies almost entirely on their seat on the Security Council.

Opposing views?

While I agree that Yanukovich is a crook, selective justice, applied to various dictators by the West has nothing to do with democracy. As long as dictator makes "the right thing" he is ok, he becomes a scarecrow as long as he starts deviating from the line which is appointed to him. See Assad, Kaddafi, Mubarek. Check what is happening in Turkey, where even Twitter is too dangerous, and where a president is violently suppressing any opposition. But he is a head of NATO country, so he is ok….
Nuland's recording shows that USA and EU were deep in Ukrainian uprising, more than 5 billion USD were invested in "civil society program", and the only real result of it is so-called Maidan – and it would never happened, if Right Sector militants were not involved. Easy to get the info who they are.
Might be interesting to read for an alternative view:

link

Barin1, you vastly overestimate any Western government's ability to influence events in foreign countries.

You're right, that the situations in Ukraine and Turkey are roughly comparable. But the fact that Yanukhovych fell, and Erdogan is still in power, is not the result of Western scheming, pulling the strings from afar. It's a result of how far the protesters have been willing to go, up to now.

And, you're right that Western countries have been hypocritical about who they support in the name of democracy. But you are wrong in estimating our ability to topple governments.

"more than 5 billion USD were invested in "civil society program"

Nope, I'd like to see you provide proof of this. Not at all true for the Ukraine.

Now, the U.S. did provide a $1 USDbn loan guarantee to the Ukraine. If you really think that motivated all the rioters and protesters on Maidan square to overthrow Yanukhovych, then the U.S. could have accomplished regime change in countries we don't like, all over the world, on the cheap!

As far as the alternative view, I spent a week last month traveling, watching the only three available channels, Russian state TV channels in my hotel room. They put out classic anti-Ukraine propaganda, in an unrelenting cycle. But these are all state TV channels (I notice Putin has put all the nonstate TV out of business).

U.S. media, like it or not, reflects a broad range of opinion. I can read any of the top 5 newspapers or watch three different TV channels and get very different political filters on the day's events.

I suggest that it is you, in Russia, who are not getting "alternative views" of news.

You're right about Turkey – the protesters are not shooting back yet, and nobody told them that their coup will be accepted. Erdogan is tougher and has guts that Yanukovich lacks.
Now, the facts:
link

and their interpretation:

link
link

I have no problem watching BBC, Euronews or reading any site. US media hardly offers a broad view, to my mind to some extent it might be said about European media…

You're right, $5 USDbn towards civil society in the Ukraine, *since Ukrainian independence* 22 years ago.

I only wish the U.S. was so effective that we could effect regime change in foreign countries, for 1 bn or 5 bn. For what we've spent in Iraq, we could have had twenty governments of our choosing. Finally – a foreign policy success!

Your other links are conspiratorial, and can be interpreted as you like, insofar as you wear a tinfoil hat.

Now as far as Turkey, be clear on this; do you really believe the U.S. has caused the Turkish unrest?

I don't think that US is causing unrest in Turkey, bcs. it doesn't give you any benefits. Therefore you're not critical on Erdogan – who actually believes that USA is behind his main opponent, but that's his opinion.
It is not easy to destabilize a government where the people are happy, or completely controlled by dictatorship.
You may invest a bit, when everything is on edge, and achieve a lot. Sometimes a simple phrase of support – don't care about the agreement, push more! – may oust a president.
I have no illusions – the world is a nasty place, where the governments – all of them – start talking about democracy, self-determination and human rights only when it suits them. Of course, Russia (as well as USA) is no different.

The problem with information is that even we see an alternative view, but it doesn't suit us, we ignore it, right?

The US isn't causing unrest anywhere … save for within it's own borders …

stu- Yes, a trial in Egypt is Not at all the same as a trial in the USA.

And yes, the questioning process in the USA Does Not involve torture or sexual assault/rape… And you are read your "Miranda Rights" before anything else happens once you are told what you are being arrested for. … ie.: robbery, murder, rape, etc. …

And Yes, you get a lawyer as soon as you ask for one ….
If you can get a hold of some US TV show CDs, like "LAW AND ORDER", JUSTIFIED, etc. … they generally do a pretty good job of accurately portraying the US Justice System … Which is not prefect … but generally better than most in many cases …
"Still, hell, they're Muslims, right? So who cares …" … You and I both know the only one that can "fix" a muslim nation's problems, is themselves … No matter how much the West tries/tried to "help" … They really need to move at their own pace and choose the type of gov't they want, etc. …
If that gov't is jihadist … then they will suffer the consequences if they try to take it out side of their borders/region …

Legion – the 'West' (for which in this instance read the USA) could of course cut off military aid to Egypt and deny them access to their toys.

Though I guess this might lead them back to being a Russian client state so it is complex.

However, just sitting back and letting the Egyptian Army hang people it doesn't like at will seems bad…. and and good way for it to end up like Syria.

kyotebluer than blue. For the win, he was being cynical you DA*ses. Wow so many ready to go to war at a baronial land grab way way on the otherside of the realm . LOL

Best we can do now is have someone from the government post a "selfie" pic online, with the #WeSupportUkraine, or something like that, and a thumbs up sign.

Sadly, a new low in US global power projection……

Still, we are making at least a very minimal effort, so that should be noted in our favor.

Bangor, their culture, their rules.

People would be hopping mad if we tried to impose our values on another culture, so……

Mako "Sadly, a new low in US global power projection……"

Actually a lot of the rest of the world would be pretty happy to see the US continually reach new lows in power projection. In many cases it hasn't really worked out well for the locals.

Bangor, their culture, their rules.

So you agree that slavery is acceptable? Or Female Genital Mutilation?

Just so long as it's not your kids suffering?

Never been the British attitude… which is why slavery isn't a world problem today.

Stu – regardless, as you noted, there are no shortage of arms available in that region or anywhere else for that matter. And just like in Syria, if no other weapons were available, they'd use sticks and stones. And as we see US involvement(or UK, France, etc.) in the region, in moslem nations, really does not stop them from doing what they want to do anyway … Note Iraq and Afghanistan, after the US, etc., left or is leaving, things rapidly go back to from bad to worse … No one can "fix" the moslems … but the moslems … The US and others have said, that they shouldn't do the heinous things they do … but that certainly didn't seem to stop them. Some moslems will say it is Sharia law or something else like that that allows them to do things that they do … if for no other underlining reason then they want to … Of course, now I'm wondering how we got talking about Egypt, moslems, etc. when the title of this thread had Estonia in the header ?