"Is Taiwan’s Military Becoming Too Small to Fight?" Topic

"As the gap in military capabilities between Taiwan and China continues to widen, talk of a substantial active forces reduction by Taipei is once again fueling speculation that the island may have given up on defense, perhaps after concluding that resistance is futile and unification inevitable. Is such a decision, occurring while the People's Liberation Army (PLA) continues to enjoy double-digit budget growth, confirmation that Taipei is ready to capitulate, or is it part of a plan to maximize the return on stagnant defense expenditures and ensure excellence among volunteer soldiers?

It all starts with the "Jingtsui Program," an effort initiated by President Ma Ying-jeou soon after his election in 2008 to phase out conscription and create an all-volunteer military. Under initial plans, conscription, which accounted for approximately one-third of the total active force, was to cease by 2014. However, because of an inability to meet recruitment goals (total recruitment for 2013 was less than one-third of its target of 28,000, with only 8,600 people signing up in the first 11 months), implementation of the program has been delayed twice, and a complete phasing out of the conscription system is now set for 2017.

Along with ending conscription, a policy that had the support of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, the total force was to be streamlined to reflect changing demographics, financial pressures, and an evolving threat environment. According to the National Defense Report 2013, the initial program foresaw a reduction in personnel for the Republic of China (ROC) Armed Forces from 275,000 to 215,000 by the end of 2014, a ratio of 0.9 percent of Taiwan's population of approximately 23 million…"
Full article here.
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Amicalement
Armand

Wow. When a nation loses the will to defend itself, I guess it shouldn't be surprised if someone else comes to take it.

This isn't the first report I've read about Taiwan's conscription troubles and inability to woo volunteer soldiers.

Must make the mainland leaders quietly pleased, their reunification goal seems more within reach now. I would like to see (not literally; in an ironic imaginary way) how much outrage would be expressed by the West if the mainland Chinese swooped in one day and grabbed key airports and landing sites and started to occupy the island against limited resistance. Would it reach the levels of ire caused by the Russians retaking Crimea? Or would our dependence on cheap Chinese goods and Chinese underwriting of American debt be too important in this instance?

Very good questions my friend!.

Amicalement
Armand

Taiwan is a pariah because it is not recognized by the UN due to the 'One China' policy. Her army is weak and cannot hope to stop a Chinese land invasion, but if the PLA successfully crosses the Taiwan Strait and reaches the island all is lost anyway. The ROC army still uses M60 and M48 tanks.

The ROCAF is the 'cream' of her armed forces, but even so the aircraft is not top-of-the-line because foreign countries including the US are loath to sell them advanced models due to pressure from the mainland. Her fleet of F-16 Block 20's, Mirage 2000-5's and indigenous FCK-1's are falling behind China's latest aircraft technologically.

So yeah, it may be a matter of "If you can't beat them, join them." But even so, I don't see a military approach here because there are easier ways. China believes that Taiwan can be absorbed peacefully just like Hong Kong, eventually.

I'm more worried about China getting her hands on all our Western military tech to study.

I suspect it is only a matter of time until they are "re-unified".

Good point my friend.

Amicalement
Armand

The KMT are now the pro-China party in Taiwan. Interestingly, yesterday 200 or so Taiwanese students occupied the legislature to protest against ratifying a new Taiwan-China trade pact which they see it as giving Beijing more leverage over Taipei.

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The front page of the SCMP showed a student with a banner reading Taiwan =/= China, which would be seen as very provocative in Beijing. As an aside, these passionate anti-Chinese protesters seem to be just the sort of recruits the ROC army needs.

More on the trade deal:

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Soundbite: 'For Beijing, the goal is to also bring the two sides closer, but its ultimate aim is reunification. And that is exactly what opponents of the trade deal do not want.'

Well yes, quite. Good summary.

Interesting news about the protests.

Everything is provocative to Beijing.

I can see it now, China invades Taiwan to protect Chinese speaking residents from illegal government. Legislature votes to join PRC, PRC votes to accept ROC . US administration freezes assets of a few top PRC officials.