One point
Phil Dutre is right. But one thing I want to point out. I've been hearing this "graying of the hobby- the Goths are at the gates- After me the Deluge" stuff since 1962 when I first got into the hobby. People have been "banging up shop" on the hobby since the day after HG wells first made his game. I heard people in Board Games and D&D saying that "in 5 years there won't be any miniature games any more"
Lo how the mighty have fallen, and Historical Minis seem to be alive and well regardless of challenges from other hobbies and club and group politics.
The reason is quite simple. It's the same thing that prevents us from ever being big-time and played by everyone. The craft/modelling element is the strongest virtue of the hobby and players who get into it have to committ a large amount of time and effort to painting their collections, buildign their terrain and drafting their games and scenarios. This is far different from the "shake-and-bake" boardgamers who all they have to do is dump out the box and the Role Players who really don't even need miniatures.
The simple fact is that most mini-games love and crave this crafty/handywork part of the hobby and wouldn't abandon it for anything. They love the sense of accomplishment that comes with being able to say "You like it, I made it myself." As opposed to a Board Gamer who can only say "You like it- I bought it myself."
This is not to denigrate board gamers. They too have had a hard time of it and often get into these grey funks about "the end of the hobby as we know it."
But I doubt either will shrivel up and blow away. A few years ago everyone was wailing and moaning that kids were only intersted in computer games and the computer games would be the death of miniatures.
Look at the Model Railroaders. There's all sorts of softwar to run virtual model railroads on computer alone, but everyone who's anyone in the hobby wants his own model railroad even if it's a 4 x 8 with a simple circle of track and a few odd buildings set around the oval.
Don't worry, miniature wargames will be here for a long, Long LONG time.
I