"What countries could break up in the near future ?" Topic

Hi

As a setting for near future (20-50 years) what potential break-ups are there to change the military/political landscape ? There is the potential for territory to leave both Spain and Belgium in the near future, but what other counties might realistically fracture ?

Maybe the Kurds will get their own state .

The US?

I keed, I keed.

Aren't there enough real tragedies to model?

Iraq is the smart money, several name changes due in Africa, so what else is new. North Korea will fall, then unite with the South. Can Cuba be far behind?

VR
James Mattes

More like uniting? Turkey and Egypt splitting up the Mid-east sans Israel?
New North African coalition from Libya to the Atlantic?
A new African Empire?
China forming a Pan Asian League?
South American Union?
…wait-that's the old Invasion America line-up if you add a Europa Coalition…

Well Scotland is due to have referendum about independence. So that could lead to Wales and Northen Ireland going the same way. England is not getting a referendum on keeping Scotland but that would take us into Blue Fez area.

How violent this break up would be or if the referendum did not get an independence result would that lead to a "Troubles" situation could give you plenty of scope.

China perhaps. It has a history thereof

Put me down as another vote for Kurdistan.

I don't see a reuinification of Korea unless China collapses — a possibility, given its trajectory, but not a strong one yet. (If the current Nork regime falls, it's more likely that China will replace it with a more obvious client state because they're really paranoid about the powerhouse that Korea can be.)

The US splitting between the Heartland and the Coasts is not likely, but is now a non-zero probability. Not as likely as a Chinese rebellion, but possibly enough to game.

Europe…

EEC is on a rocky road to splitting up as its economic union fails. YMMV.

Next 50 years…
Kurdistan
Zimbabwe
Spain
Scotland
Texas
Cuba
Mexico
Puerto Rico
Quebec

Neo-British Empire
New Zealand & Australia unite and form Neo-British Empire.
England joins with NZ and Oz along with Wales & Canada (minus Quebec.)

Indian Expansionism…
Bangladesh voluntarily becomes vassal of India due to lack of water.
Nepal joins India as a protection from China.
Pakistan grows closer to India yet remains separate.

Russia absorbs…
Finland

China absorbs…
Taiwan
Vietnam
Laos
Cambodia
North Korea
Mongolia

Not to far off…
USA into 49 or less republics. (Texas will have been long gone.)

US is very unlikely but certainly not beyond the realm of possibility. A LOT would have to go wrong before it became the least bit likely, though.

On the downside, two points:

First, see this map of states in which one party is dominant:

link

Click on "All" at the bottom.

Given the parties today (unlike for most of our history) are strongly opposed ideologically, this creates the POTENTIAL for disunion if some major crisis erupted. Like a giant financial/fiscal meltdown with the US government trying to take money from Red states to prop up bankrupt Blue states.

Second, polls show record low % of Americans who trust authority or who believe government rules "with the consent of the governed." Legitimacy can be taken for granted until a crisis, then maybe a widespread sense of illegitimacy results in resistance.

I'd put the odds of something like this happening very low, (thank God) but it is certainly imaginable.

The USA.

I do not kid. It isn't likely, but isn't implausible within the stated timeframe either.

Fans of GZG will already know that we're only 36 years off from the economic collapse and presidential assassination that provokes civil war and our eventual reunion with the British crown. :)

"Red states prop up bankrupt blue states". LOL!
Look to which states absorb fed money as opposed to those who contribute.
Fez, fezzy, fezziest.

North Korea isn't making the world unstable enough. I predict Kim's brothers will rise up and create the new states of North West Korea and North East Korea. :P

I'm on vacation at my wife's family home, and I've been reading the letters column of the Savannah Morning News. In fact, this paper has a call-in column for those too excited or otherwise unable to actually write in with their opinions.

Apparently, it's quite likely that Georgia, or Savannah at least, will secede from the union, or declare war on Alabama, or something (and why does the stop light at Abercorn St. and Victory Drive work so badly?)

So, that's my prediction. Unhinged people with conspiracy theories and dubious factual knowledge will destroy the United States – possibly starting with the spy-cameras inside that stop-light.

"Red states prop up bankrupt blue states". LOL!
Look to which states absorb fed money as opposed to those who contribute.
Fez, fezzy, fezziest.

Quite agree. My understanding is that it is opposite. If secession were to come, it wouldn't be because of the "red" states bailing out the "blue" states, unless there was some sort of economic catastrophe, at which point everyone would be far worse off (the blue states on average pay more in taxes than what they get back, and the red states on average get more than they pay in taxes.)

Damon.

When I am king, getting rid of red light cameras will be first on my list.

West Africa is in a constant state of flux. All bets are off, there. Other than that;

Vaguely possible:

Catalonia
Flanders
Kurdistan
Cyrenacia
Kenya
Uganda

Somewhat ludicrous:

Scotland
Corsica
Baluchistan

Yeah, right:
Quebec
Chinese fragmentation
Indonesian fragmentation

Really, you're totally high:
US fragmentation
Wallachia
Tyrol
Wales, demented tiny UK "nations" (i.e. Isle of Man, etc)

-Kle.

When I am king, making the rest of the world conform to 8.5x11 office paper is my #1.

Mark, should we start a new thread? "When I am king"

Don't mean to start a fight, but the question is not which states pay more into the Federal Government than they get back in federal spending -- that is hard to calculate when things like military base apples are being compared to federal welfare spending oranges.

The question is which states are going bankrupt in terms of their own state budgets and spending. CA has already had to issue vouchers. Check under-funded pensions for state employees and state bond ratings. That's what I am referring to.

Italy. Venice is seriously considering it:

link

Also, any of the states with Kurdish minorities. Great scope for civl wars and wars of unification there!

Scotland
Catalonia
Flanders and Wallonia
Kurdistan
Reunification of Korea
Quebec
Euskal Herria
Breaking of Afghanistan
Greenland
Secession in Bolivia
And there's always the Caucasus…

Highly unpractical but for the sake of it:Serbian part of Bosnia separating from the country,Croatians soon following;parts of Macedonia with Albanian majority.

China comes to mind. A lot of economic disparity between the cities and the countryside. Long list of revolutions started in the country side.

Kurdistan is possible, but only if Turkey agrees. Then again the Iraqi Kurds have oil now. Oil greases alot of paths. Just ask the Saudis and every other person who sits on a pool of black gold.

Moslem Brotherhood and a new Caliphate is always possible. Or if nothing else a lot of blood shed before it is over. After all everyone wants to be running Mecca.

Pakistan is pretty much a failed state. Nothing like nukes being let loose in the world to be used by people who think it is the 9th century or should be again.

Bangledish when the floods become too bad to support farming and the mass migration that causes. This may be the first area we see the use of armies to kill civilians to prevent them from crossing borders. Climate change will be fun, watch the dominoes fall one by one.

Remember when we used to wait on Quebec to break away, boy miss those days. I see a very bleak century ahead of us. Chinese revolts tend to be in the tens of millions killed, a single nuke in a megacity more millions, millions dying of starvation in Bangledish and Africa. There may come a time when they look back on the loss of life in WWII as a minor loss.

Ah! I forgot one: Nigeria. It's entirely possible that the North will split off as an Islamic state.

Italy is quite a possibility.

Some years back Staten Island wanted to secede from New York City. Grey uniforms at the ferry?

Since Sandy whacked us, no further such talk is heard. But who can say about the future?

Belgium. Seriously. Peacefully of course.

Why not the US?

TMP link

TMP link

Also:

TMP link

Dan

Why St. George? Was the president's wife visiting there?

*Refering to the old SNL routine with a past president who liked every movie were the president's wife was taken out.

Vince

Scotland. And no, England doesn't get a say – the same way a husband doesn't get a say when the wife wants a divorce.

Mexican Jack Squint wrote:

In fact, this paper has a call-in column for those too excited or otherwise unable to actually write in with their opinions.

Made oi larrf.

All the best,

John.