"Still Betting on the 2011 Revolutions" Topic
8 Posts
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| jpattern2 | 23 Nov 2011 4:02 p.m. PST |
2011 has just over a month to go, so it's time to check in with our over/under line on revolutions in 2011.
John the OFM started this thread back in February of this year: TMP link
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and now Yemen are definites: link
King Abdullah II of Jordan replaced Prime Minister Marouf al-Bakhit with Awn Shawkat Al-Khasawneh, along with other cabinet members, but Abdullah is still in power. Should that count?
Syrian President Bashar Assad might still be forced out by the end of the year, or soon after.
Should we count the resignations of Greek Prime Mnister Georgios Papandreou and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi? I say yes.
What about the conservatives taking control in Spain? It was the result of an election, but it could be considered a "soft" revolution.
There have also been major protests or uprisings in Iran, Iraq, Algeria, Bahrain, Morocco, and Oman, mostly in support of the "Arab Spring."
So, I count Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Greece, and Italy as 6 definites, with Jordan and Spain as 2 maybes, and Syria as 1 "any day now." But I'm willing to hear other opinions.
A lot can happen in the next month.
As an aside, I'm not in any way making light of what's going on in these countries. I just think it's exciting to see people rising up and taking more control of their lives. |
| Pictors Studio | 23 Nov 2011 4:39 p.m. PST |
Changing political parties peacefully in a multiparty system is not in any way a revolution. |
| Mako11 | 23 Nov 2011 5:01 p.m. PST |
Egypt seems to be going through a second one, just a few months after the first. I just read the Yemeni leader has again agreed to step aside. I doubt the Syrian or Iranian one will happen before the end of the year. The Chinese revolution seems to be in a holding pattern. Iraq and Afghanistan will happen shortly after we pull out. The Saudis and Bahrainis seem to have things under control. |
| Sparker | 23 Nov 2011 6:18 p.m. PST |
Well Iran better have its revolution soon, because its prospect is the only thing keeping the Israeli Air Forces's wheels on the ground… |
| capncarp | 23 Nov 2011 6:19 p.m. PST |
I'd like to put $100 on Lichtenstein to show, $100 on San Marino to place, and $500 on Sealand to win. |
| Mako11 | 23 Nov 2011 6:51 p.m. PST |
Well, at 1,000:1 odds for Lichtenstein, that is a good play. Not as sure about the others. |
| WarDepotDavid | 23 Nov 2011 10:32 p.m. PST |
Is it really a revolution to oust 1 Islamic leader and replace them with another? |
| jpattern2 | 24 Nov 2011 3:19 p.m. PST |
Is it really a revolution to oust 1 Islamic leader and replace them with another? Yes, a revolution is a revolution. The current government or leader has to be ousted, doesn't matter if the new government or leader is better or worse than the old one. (Hoping for "better," of course, at least in terms of the rights and freedoms of the populace, whether the end result is pro-West or not.) In fact, as Mako11 notes, Egypt might be experiencing a second revolution as we type. That would count as two, in my book. |
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adds infantry to his Israeli force.