"Asteroid 99942 Apophis (Natural Or Artificial Break-Up)" Topic

Consider the following two scenarios for either Friday, April 13, 2029 (first pass) or Friday, April 13, 2036 (second pass):

Scenario A)
Russia or China, without regard to protests by other nations, sends nuclear missiles to intercept and destroy the asteroid. The smaller pieces, now more susceptible to Earth's gravity, hit Earth like buckshot; OR

Scenario B)
Like what happened to Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, when it broke up as it came close to Jupiter, Earth's gravity breaks up Asteroid Apophis. Again, the smaller pieces, now more susceptible to Earth's gravity, hit Earth like buckshot.

So, in either case, the full-sized asteroid (estimated as being 350 meters or 1,150 ft) never hits the planet. But many smaller pieces do.

Keep in mind that Meteor Crater in Arizona (1,200 meters or 4,000 feet in diameter, and some 170 meters or 570 feet deep) was caused by a rock 50 meters or 162 feet in size.

QUESTIONS:

Could either of those scenario severely destabilize our wonderful little planet?

And, most importantly, could the concept behind either of those scenarios inspire any gaming?

Thanks,

Dan
TMP link

It would be the apocalypse. Not the destruction of the world but the end of civilisation as we know it. Any post apocalyptic game could be set after the impact.

Well, given the success rate of predicting and bringing down satellites where we want them, my guess is the bad guys are just as likely to bring it down upon themselves as others.

Of course, that doesn't preclude someone from trying…..

Remember shallow ocean impacts create tsunami, and they are quite dangerous.

How about an islamic nation attempting it, or from terrorist seizure of a missile launch.

The same mass of rock, less any vaporised or deflected by the missile strike, will be hitting the earth, just not in one lump. Even if reduced to billions of pebble sized lumps, they still retain the same overall kinetic energy. The difference is that a larger surface area on the lotsa pebbles means that the kinetic energy is converted into heat energy instead as they burn up in the atmosphere. Massive atmospheric heating is just another kind of apocalypse.

How about somebody nudging it just enough for it to hit a predicted target…..

Has anyone called Bruce Willis?

If those red dots are impacts then Panama could take a hit. What's the effect of the Panama Canal turning into a Panama Strait?

The possibilities are -- I think -- just standard "fly up and nuke it" scenarios, or even more-standard post-apocalyptic end-of-civilization gaming.

If you assume that the rock is broken up and some pieces miss Earth entirely (enough so it doesn't simply wipe us out) but some hit the surface and generally follow the potential impact zone laid above (with some dispersal), my guesses:

1) First, new ice age as impacts throw up enough dust to mess up the climate long term
2) Eastern Russia, Northern China and Central/South America look like they will get the worst of direct impacts.
3) Tsunamis from ocean impacts wipe the coast clean almost everywhere it looks like. Only the Indian Ocean and the Med would likely not see a tidal wave.

After that mix in preferred post apocalyptic ingredients and stir until you have the consistency you want!

-Will

Umm you have forgotten the moon.
The moon is our saivour, it catches the vast majority of any sizable objects that come into our path.

Also, what if the composition of the objects.. as a geologist, I can safely tell you, it makes a difference to what gets through and what doesn't and how big.

Objects upto the size of several meters often collide with our atmosphere, their nature, the speed and angle all have an influence on the eventual size of anything getting through.

Also, where do they strike? Polar Ice, Deep Ocean, Shallow Ocean, Desert, Mountain range etc.

But the reality of it aside.. you can easily make up some scenarioes.. accelerated global warming, due to resulting volcanic gasses/erroptions resulting from geo-techtonic plate shock, or super global cooling due to atmosphere clouding by dust and particulates. Dramatic sea level rise, do to shattering and forced break up of polar ice sheets.
What ever takes your fancy really..

I remember the interesting take on the 'big asteroid on a collision course' that Stargate had…

Big rock, going to take care of it with a big bomb. Until at the last minute they realize it's a trap and the whole rock is a pile of fissionable material (naquada?), and will obliterate the earth if they blow it up.

Implausible, yes, but at least a little original.

Russia or China, without regard to protests by other nations, sends nuclear missiles to intercept and destroy the asteroid. The smaller pieces, now more susceptible to Earth's gravity, hit Earth like buckshot; OR (/q>

Buckshot is rather small…the only reason that it's so deadly is because it's usually used with such force in a small cocentrated area….Try hitting something with buckshot at 50 yards and see what happens…if it even hits the target….
I'm thinking the force and power of the warheads, (they simply wouldn't use just one), would pulverize most of the "big rocks", and the majority of them would burn up coming down. We'd get a nice meteor shower to "ooooh and ahhh" at…Anything that did hit, wouldn't be devastating as thought…

Scenario B)
Like what happened to Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, when it broke up as it came close to Jupiter, Earth's gravity breaks up Asteroid Apophis. Again, the smaller pieces, now more susceptible to Earth's gravity, hit Earth like buckshot.

Comet and Asteroids are compeltely different. There's more energy output with a comet. Plus Shoemaker-Levy 9 was massively bigger than this rock…the gravity breaking it up and sucking it into Jupiter essentially made it the equivalent of dozens of hydrogen bombs going off…we don't know what happened to the surface, (if the planet has any at all), but we could see the uppper atmospheric disturbances as a result. If that happened here…goodnight Irene….

Keep in mind that Meteor Crater in Arizona (1,200 meters or 4,000 feet in diameter, and some 170 meters or 570 feet deep) was caused by a rock 50 meters or 162 feet in size.

I have problems with this. Unless the meteor was composed completely of iron/nickel, and that's all that was left of it when it hit the surface. For some reason the estimation just doesn't "sit right" with what I am seeing in the crater…

QUESTIONS:

Could either of those scenario severely destabilize our wonderful little planet?

Yes. When you mean "Destabilize" do you mean the effects of "nuclear winter" which has been proven not to be as "dramatic" as first proposed by Dr. Sagan and his cronies? The thing that I think that people keep forgetting is that this planet is remarkbly resistent and sturdy, and efficient at repairing and fixing itself…it's our species and society that is more fragile. The planet would live, we might not…

And, most importantly, could the concept behind either of those scenarios inspire any gaming?

yes, but the problem being for me is like trying to go through the concept of "what is going to be developed technologycially and socially", between now and 2029-2036. Remember it only took us 44 years from the first Wright flyer to Yeager breaking the sound barrier…then from there it was only 22 years till we were on the moon….
What will we have in 18-25 years from now?

1) First, new ice age as impacts throw up enough dust to mess up the climate long term

I don't think so. NASA satellites data show how wind patterns and planetary heat would keep that from happening. Remember, they said the said thing about the Kuwaiti Oil Fires, and Mt. Pinatubo erupting. Would there be a change? Almost definately, but long term ice age? Nope…

2) Eastern Russia, Northern China and Central/South America look like they will get the worst of direct impacts.

Intersting how Siberia gets it again..Tunguska anyone?
You might as well kiss Central America Goodbye…

3) Tsunamis from ocean impacts wipe the coast clean almost everywhere it looks like. Only the Indian Ocean and the Med would likely not see a tidal wave.

Which is why I live in the Midwest….Away from all of that! True I pay for it in lack of good fresh "off the boat" seafood, but no big old tidal waves for me…

NASA satellites data show how wind patterns and planetary heat would keep that from happening. Remember, they said the said thing about the Kuwaiti Oil Fires, and Mt. Pinatubo erupting. Would there be a change? Almost definately, but long term ice age? Nope…

Granted, but bear in mind if it only last a year even, it could collapse the majority of the food chain. Which would be bad news for most of us ovepopulating humans.