"If There Was A SECOND American Civil War In 2060 AD" Topic

Nothing political meant by this thread. Just a WHAT IF that, I hope, results in gaming ideas.

What if there was a Second American Civil War in, say, 50 years or so . . .

* Would it be just two sides? Or more?
* Would it be North vs South all over again?
* East vs West?
* United East and West coasts vs Central?
* An entirely different fragmentation possibility?
* What foreign nations would support which side?
* Which side(s) would have the strongest military in 2ACW?
* What would be the catalyst for the schism?

Thanks.

Dan
PS. Here are some interesting maps, charts, etc., by the way:
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2kgames.com/shatteredunion
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TMP link

Texas versus all comers…?

Winsconsin seceding to Canada

You can't trust them, they have a State Bacillus now, can cheese related Germ warfare be far behind

Hmmm, at a quick guess:

South west would go seperate, the north east would likely do the same, Texus would throw its weight around but still be a bit part player like the last time. The area of the confederate south is likely to form a block out of unity.

The midwest, I don't know, and the northeast may as well just join Canada.

Utah would declare itself an independant fundamentalist state.

If there was a second Civil War, I'd imagine it would be fought over ideology rather than geography. Something like Pro-Life vs Pro-Choice (just used as an example of the type of ideological difference). It would also require the federal government to take a hard line stance on one side, with the bulk of the military backing it… making the opposing forces fight as an insurgency. States might break away, but I don't think they'd be limited to a specific region (ie north and south). So you might get Wisconsin, Colorado and Oregon breaking away while in other states you have guerrillas. Just my quick thoughts

Red v Blue states. Or California against everyone else.

Unless the Federal forces join both sides, it's over really, really quickly.
-Kle.

If the war goes "hot" (lots of combat) right from the get-go and given the number of automatic weapons and the lethality of the support weapons they are going to exhaust readily available ammo, vehicles and troops within a couple of months.

If that happens and if there is significant enough chaos Mexico (with UN support) could move into the southwest to "protect their citizens currently living in the US from racially motivated violence".

It will start when Ohio tries to force Michigan to take Toledo.

theres already been a third english civil war :
englandprevials.blogspot.com

I'd think it would start with Northern California granting independence to Southern California, and rapidly growing out of hand from there. Oregon still wouldn't let CA plates cross the borders.

Rising of foreign colonists in the Southwest. The 'Reconquista of Aztlan'.

If it is going to happen, it will probably be sooner than that, and as pointed out, will be based more along ideological lines.

Right vs. Left, so red vs. blue states/cities/regions, and based on the rights of individuals (constitutionalists) vs. progressive views (socialists) that taxes and laws should be for the greater good of the society as a whole.

As mentioned, the Southwest may be in play as well, over narco/illegal alien issues.

The collapse of the financial system, a huge run up in oil prices, bank foreclosures on homeowners, or an ever-increasing tax burden may set it off (see the riots in Greece). Further restrictions on personal freedoms could also do that as well.

Berlichtingen: "If there was a second Civil War, I'd imagine it would be fought over ideology rather than geography."

I couldn't agree with you more. It will start that way, for sure. However, sooner or later, geography will become important, as each side tries to make its territory as contiguous as possible.

Berlichtingen: "It would also require the federal government to take a hard line stance on one side, with the bulk of the military backing it"
Klebert: "Unless the Federal forces join both sides, it's over really, really quickly."

How's this? Though DC will claim a majority, I suspect that the military will fragment also, based on regional allegiances. That will give the secessionists the feeling that they have a chance. Later, once they realize that their forces and equipment are not adequate, they will probably seek foreign allies, which will complicate things further.

Dan

I agree with Berlichtingen that the fight would be over ideology. The last one had ideology as a source, but was not the only factor. Economics and states rights were also an issue, as they are today also.

I do think that goegraphy will play a part as like minded people tend to be a majority in different regions, those areas would pick sides. For example, there are more liberals in Massachusetts than in Virginia.

The armed forces of the United States are the key factor (as in the case of most revolutions or civil wars). If the majority stand with the government, then the fighting ends quickly. If the majority of troops in units break away for different beliefs, then you've got a tough fight on your hands.

The fighting might not be limited to just two sides (government vs rebels). I could see New England breaking away from all to set up their own government. The North-west along with Northern California as another faction. The other groups could be the Mid-West States and another group based out of Denver. I see the Southern and South-West states staying together.

Foriegn intervention would be a looming threat, again as it was during the family fued of the 1860's. The question of who would intervene is interesting. Europe I don't see taking part and Canada would also observe unless directly threatened by events. A Mexican / Central American push into Texas, New Mex, Arizona and Southern California is the most likely if any were to take place.

Weapons supplies would be purchased from the Chinese, but aside from protecting their shipping, I don't see them getting involved. With the US distracted, things get very interesting for Japan and South Korea.

Now for which region has the most muscle, that again depends on where the armed forces stand, but I believe that the major military bases are in southern states and the mid-west.

Makes for some interesting scenario ideas and we haven't even touched upon the zombie factor in all this.

Get "Jericho" on DVD and watch that. It poses an amusing scenario.

Ummmm Top Gun Ace, by Rest of the World standards Red states are extreme right wing, and blue states are just right wing. External intervention except from central America is highly unlikely, the other nations chuckling over hubris being a more realistic expectation.

On a wider scale the most likely events would be China taking Taiwan and possibly North Korea testing the Souths defences. That and other nations making money selling arms and equipment to the fighting factions.

Perhaps some one might take back its rebel provinces picture

x42

Oregon still wouldn't let CA plates cross the borders.

They can visit, they just can't stay…

Why wait?

I agree with Berlichtingen that the fight would be over ideology. The last one had ideology as a source, but was not the only factor.

Actually despite a lot of melodrama from the secessionists about "state's rights," the American Civil War was a political and economic, not ideological, war.

The south basically held the balance of power in the federal government before the late 1850s. Note that when the South had a majority in congress and there were Southern presidents, the Southern states had absolutely no problem with Federal troops marching into Massachusetts to seize fugitive slaves, despite the fact that those Northern states had sanctuary laws for fugitive slaves.

It was only with the growth of the North, the establishment of the Republican Party and the election of a Northern president that the southern states suddenly got "ideological" about state's rights!

The South's top tier economy was built around slavery, and when the Federal government was shifting away from states that supported that institution, then the cries of "state's rights" went up.

For the north the war was largely economic as well. For instance the troops from the west did not by and large care a whit about slavery, but they did not want their access to the sea, via the Mississippi, to be in essentially foreign hands, as this was the foundation of the West's top tier economy.

I won't get into the Second Amendment discussion because that is current politics and totally off-limits on TMP.

Bring it on. Then maybe Texas can recover it's lost territories.

It may starts out being ideological with some geographical considerations thrown in, but in the end it will just be a battle for resources. Those wanting them and those defending them. We are a fairly mechanized society, what happens when the water is gone? Even those with wells need a back-up generator. What happens when there is no gas to power it? I think disease will take a massive toll. A typhus or influenza epidemic could kill millions.

Andrew

California vrs. the Heathens. ;-)

Sorry – Wisconsin has an official state bacillus?

Yes, I'm sorry about that too, actually.

This morning while walking into the supermarket, I was thinking about this very topic! If it were even possible for an ACWII.

How's this? Though DC will claim a majority, I suspect that the military will fragment also, based on regional allegiances. That will give the secessionists the feeling that they have a chance. Later, once they realize that their forces and equipment are not adequate, they will probably seek foreign allies, which will complicate things further.

I dunno about that. The US military does a pretty good job of mixing people around, and getting an institutional identity, rather than a local identity, instilled.

*IF* (and boy is that a big if), there was a second Civil War, my guess is that you'd see NorCal split from SoCal. SoCal secedes, gets invaded by Mexico. The former Confederacy would probably reunite, but their economy hasn't recovered since the first civil war. Despite having most of the US Army bases, they wouldn't have much firepower compared to the Federal forces. After all, the biggest reason those bases are in the South is to prevent a complete economic collapse!

I can't see the Pacific Northwest breaking away… There's this vital strategic asset there, and a whole lot of federal troops available to prevent it, stationed not 60 minutes away (and that's driving the tanks to the scene)!

Out West, any fighting would be over water resources. Trust me, nothing else matters in a place that gets 12" total precipitation per year. Not high tech, not oil. SoCal is going to lose it's water, so that'd start the battle there.

Lion in the Stars has it right – "IF"

That being said, if you believe George Friedman, the most plausible Civil War II is the southwest breaking away to either become an independent Hispanic State or to join Greater Mexico

His book is worth reading (The Next 100 Years)

And what about factions being drawn by personal loyalties to charismatic leaders, as in the Civil Wars of the Roman Republic? Would it be possible? Or am I thinking too much in European terms and that wouldn't be a possibility in the American political culture?

2060 is a *long* time from now. A lot can happen in 50 years to shake things up.

Here's another scenario: Global warming causes sea levels to rise, say, 6 meters/20 feet over the next 50 years. Large chunks of the US coast are now submerged. Displaced people move inland; some stay in the same state, but most resettle in higher ground in other states, as far from the coast as possible. With each new census, inland states show an increase in population, with an accompanying increase in US Representatives, at the expense of coastal states. In addition, predominantly inland red states see a huge influx of displaced coastal blue-staters.

How does that shift in the balance of political power affect the US?

jpatten2,

global warming will also have other environmental impacts as well that could further complicate your scenario; crop and other food source losses will result from a substantive temperature increase and increasingly more erratic weather patterns. This means our ability to feed ourselves becomes more challenging.

Food as well as fresh water supplies and the displacement of costal populations will all play a heavy hand in any such scenario of a future ACW.

IMHO both you and "Lion" have most of the major elements of such a scenario pegged, including the nature of our professional Armed Forces, and that a heckuvalot can happen in 50 years to shake things up!

Leland R. Erickson
Metal Express
metal-express.net

I'd imagine it would be fought over ideology rather than geography.

I concur.

Rising of foreign colonists in the Southwest. The 'Reconquista of Aztlan'

For sure on this one.

The call for war or secession will probably erupt in Tennessee, Virginia or Texas based strictly on ideology. If not there then maybe Arizona will grow more isolated and tired of fending for itself and decide to take the jump into secession. Arizona will become plagued by an Atzlan insurgency.

The NW & NE will probably ally up with Canada. The South will become a bunch of Haiti type third world republics rife with corruption, especially Lousianna and Mississippi.

California might could stand on it's own if they're smart enough to see the writing on the wall and start taking actions towards this now, i.e. action plans, possibly secret diversion of funds etc. After all history says the republic will fall, if not to an internal imperialistic agenda then seperation followed by domination by external forces.

It'll probably have something to do with the location of Historicon…

Ummmm, The South's economy isn't much better than 1865? Manufacturing is probably on par with most other regions, and we still have enough arable farmland to feed our population, unlike the northeast or southwest. Throw in the fact that we aren't liberalized to the point where we need Big Government to take care of our every need, and still have a pretty good working knowledge of which end of a rifle the lead comes out. Sorry to disagree with you Lion, but the South will do fine in ACWII.

Awfully hard to talk about this without getting political, but I'd see it more of a three way split. Eastern, Central and Pacific coast.

I agree with many of the above…you need to decide the reasons for why there is a war?

Now this issue could create political comments, which I will pass on…dog house is not my thing :)

So how about something that is not political yet still is war worthy…yikes, war worthy, hippies are rolling in their pacholi stink mounds over that…"nothing is war worthy, wanna hug?"…yuck.

War worthy…how about something extreme, a UFO…a big ship…crashes in that midlands range of the US, splitting the West/East/South/North…it provides vast potential for scientific and commercial advancement.

In 2060 you could go with the cliche of mega-corporations…the mighty dollar is more important then the individual…battles and border squabbles over the rights to the ship.

There you go.

Plus potential for alien flora/fauna that come with the ship…weeds, molds, fungi, slimes, insects, spiders, ants, roaches, worms, bees, flies, rats, mice, algae, etc…that could be fun.

New medicines as well as recreational drugs made from the the alien would drive the drug cartels to enter the fray.

New weapons, computer technology, energy sources, etc…all viable money makers.

global warming will also have other environmental impacts as well

No argument there, Leland. I was only mentioning one aspect of global warming and sea levels rising that some people might not have thought of.

As I mentioned in another thread, I will be *very* surprised (and absolutely delighted) if there arent major global warming-related water and food shortages worldwide in the next 50 years (heck, 20 is probably stretching it) with accompanying pandemics. I believe we have the *ability* to avoid such a future, but I wonder if we have the *will*.

Or California against everyone else.

If California were actually a unified ideological entity, maybe. California could easily host a Civil War entirely within its borders, however. Wouldn't even need to bring in outsiders or their opinions.

For another thought on Future Uncivil War in the US, there is Vernor Vinge's "Peace War". A tech group invents something that allows them to completely take over, until someone reverse engineers their ace.

In any such scenario, it would be critical to split the federal armed forces--so it would have to be a situation where at least two of the sides thought they were fighting to preserve the United States (or defend the Constitution) so that there would be a split in the military (who to support).

Rob

Geography *might* still play a part; The year I was born ANALOG published a National Geographic-style tale called "The Great Nebraska Sea", which posited the collapse of the dormant and therefore liekly to subside Kiowa Faultline, leading to the area covered by Nebraska, Oklahoma and a lot of midwestern states to be flooded by the ocean coming inthrough Louisiana and the Texas Panahandle lowlands ( Look it up sometime: It's a forgotten classic of specualtive SF ).

Now, while the political situation was handled in that story, with the displaced states populations still having 'rump' represenattives, the possibilities for riots let alone a civil insurrection are rife in this, and also add some logistical challenges; Imagine how the Federal forces would move large quantities of men and material without the major highways, or even the Mississipi which in this scenario, is cut in half and flows backwards relative to today. the loss of arable land, which is later offset by improved climate in the new coastline states and fisheries, will have a huge impact temporary on a majorly self-sufficient country like the US – Heinlien might finally have his Food Riots!

And if that doesn't appeal . . . We *are* overdue for a major non-extinction event asteroid impact like the Arizona Crater. :)

Here are a couple of charts showing where the troops are coming from in the modern army:

By state: picture

By region: picture

I would guess that the large majority of military equipment located within the CONUS is found in the South, Southwest and SoCal making control of those bases key to any successful uprising.

I also don't think there would be any effort for anyone to join Mexico. Barring a dramatic change in their political structure I don't see many 2nd, 3rd or older generation Mexican Americans wanting to join the United States of the Gulf Cartel. Now Mexico might make a land grab but I doubt it would be successful in the long run.

Waco Joe,

If I read that first chart correctly, does nearly 11% of all the enlisted come from Texas?

Dan

It would be terrible and bring out the worst in everyone. Left wins.

I imagine the left/city folk/big government/betterment of society side would easily convince (or even bribe) the military leadership to stay on their side. This side has just as much big business as the right, they have the lawyers, most of the media, newspapers, colleges, all the unions, and all the technology hubs.

The right/rural people/state's rights/individual rights crowd, despite their guns and being the only citizens that produce food, would quickly lose. The right only have the NRA, evangelicals, talk radio, and the other half of big business/Wall Street.

The more aggressive tea party types will need to be locked up in "Hope and Change" camps till they learn to behave.

Farms would become property of the people (federal government). The Senate's two seats per state will be adjusted to lesson state power, the electoral system will have to change, districts will be gerrymandered, the radio fairness act will be passed, gun rights won't be tied to the militia clause and will be reduced, and the Supreme Court will be made larger (Congress can do that) to get rid of the current right slant.

THEN THE ZOMBIES WILL ATTACK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baconfat,

LOL.

Wow. I can definitely see any and all of those measures as more than enough reason to bring about a ACW2!

Dan

Fresh water, as mentioned previously, is another possibility, along with food riots.

Water is needed a bit more though, at least in the short-term. One need look no further than the farmers cut off from their allotments for their farms this last year to see some of the impact from that.

I doubt Mexico will attempt to take on the USA straight up, but the Narco drug cartels are growing ever more powerful, and aggressive, so may attempt some spectacular attacks in the near future, just to flex their muscles. They may also try to team up, and/or smuggle in Islamic terrorists (active man-made disaster participants, if you prefer the current PC term) across the border too, and/or to steal/smuggle high-tech weaponry and radioactive materials out of the country.

We should also consider the potential impact of a ravening Man-Bear-Pig.

I suspect if the drug violence isn't put down quickly, we will see the cartels learning the insurgency skills the used by the Afghan and Iraqi insurgencies. Can you imagine the roadside bomb threat taking out Arizona Police and Border Patrol on a regular basis?

Zombies might be the answers to all earth's problems. After the initial disasters there will be no more: oil slicks, nuclear meltdowns, deforestation, plastic pile as big as Texas in the oceans, unnatural carbon/methane/ozone depleting emissions, drug cartel wars, Toyota recalls, the Middle East conflicts, etc…

I would be more interested in a post apocalyptic game where the US civil war and the third world war are over. The zombie infection is still a threat, but pretty much under control because there are so few people left to die. Mother Nature is retaking the land and oceans. Even better would be if She sped evolution up, both human and animals were mutant at ever increasing speed. Perhaps the teamed up third Reich and dinosaurs were preparing the planet for their return.

Since this is a Sci-Fi board, let's imagine some technical advances in the next 50 years.

By 2060 a clone war is possible if someone starts up a replacement worker/soldier/Mars colonization program in the next 20-30 years. Perhaps the clones are genetically engineered to take better advantage or the only advantage of GM food crops that take over and become toxic to the biological humans. So it's new people vs. old people. Perhaps the genetically modified or the original people become sterile giving the war a winner takes all or spoiler aspect. And of course an outside influence could be from a Pan-Asian conglomerate and their army of androids that resemble and speak like old American film icons.