"What would have happened if the war started in 1938?" Topic

What would have happened if the allies had gone to war in the crisis of 1938?

At school my Year 11 GCSE History class have just taken the role of various branches of the British military, Home office and Foreign office. The scenario is that it is Sept 1938 and the PM Mr Chamberlain is about to fly to Munich to have talks with Mr Hitler. They have to give Chamberlain their advice as to whether he should risk going to war with Germany to defend Czechoslavakia.

Two classes did the presentation in the Library and at the end our Librarian asked what would have happened if the Czech crisis had led to the outbreak of world war 2 in Europe in 1938. I gave my opinion but it did make me wonder what the tMP community might think was the most likely course of events

thank you

Rob

That would be interesting; key would be what Poland would do. Historically, they were happy to join in on the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia. Would they still have done this if it involved fighting, or would they have intervened with CW and France?

Give the advice Chamberlain was given by …

The Foreign Office – you'll get no support from France, or anybody else

The Army – we cannot fight a war in Europe with what few resources we have. We need funds to strengthen the army and time, lots of time

The Navy – it would be a land war, ask the Army – but if they are getting more money, we want some too

NOT the advice he would have been given by Churchill.

A hard stand against Hitler would probably have made him back down, as Germanhy was in even worse shape (militarily) than UK and France.

As noted, an important player would have been Poland--not a friend of the Czechs at the time--and UK would not have gone it alone, as France would have the been the frontline power.

Of course, then there's the other neighbors of Czechoslovakia and what their stance was (or would have been). If I remember correctly, there had been some skirmishes between the Czechs and Romania.

The Czechs were willing to fight (or at least bluff enough that a fight would result) given some kind of external support (I'm not talking direct material aid necessarily, but some hope that Germany could not bring all it's resources to bear).

If we are assuming Poland, Hungary, and Romania are neutral and its Britain and France with the Czechs, I think Germany would ahve had a VERY rough time--enough so that perhaps Hitler would have been kicked out, though Germany would probably not have been conquered. France would have borne the brunt of any action in the west (but it would not be significant). The Brits would be doing a blockade and mayben some pinprick type operations.

Just my thoughts.

Rob

It would have been a very different war in 1938 as there would have ben no invasion of Poland. The British Army and Airforce might have been unprepared, but the French and Germans certainly weren't.

Naval blockade and a slogging match on the western front, followed by a compromise peace.

I would argue that neither side would have considered themselves ready for war in '38. A climbdown and de-escalation would have been likely, and concessions made by all. I'm sure some would argue that the superhuman wargames German army would sweep the armies of Europe aside. In reality Hitler and elements of the German high command were not as sure of the ability of their forces, they would have backed down at certain points (the re-occupation of the Rhineland zone, Czechoslovakia and Poland) if the allies (and France in particular) had been more decisive in their objections.
War would have come later instead. Would the outcome have been different? What would have happened if the war started in 1942 is another thread…

If I remember correctly, there had been some skirmishes between the Czechs and Romania.

I don't think that the two shared a land border.

According to "Hitler's Army" by the guys from Command Magazine, the German army standing before Czechoslovakia was still building up and not in optimal shape and condition for war. It would still have defeated the Czechs, but it might be an easy victory. Without easy victories, it would look bleak for Hitler.

There was a Slovak vs Hungary border war that I know of but that was in Mar 1939. The Czechs and Romanians did share a border pre-WWII. Robert

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Alright I'll say what you all want to say – we Brits would have to fight the lot of them for 3 years on our own and not two.

Stoodley, go forth and multiply with that old chestnut. At no point in WW2 did Britain stand alone in any sense except a purely geographical one.

1938, Britain forces were a disaster, the RAF and Army were re-arming and modernising as fast as they could, but they were a long way from being ready and they knew it.

Also, if France had not supported the stand over the Czechs, we had no physical way of aiding them. Munich was a case in do what you can diplomatically, and then back down if your bluff is called, while being ready for it to not be a bluff next time.

"At no point in WW2 did Britain stand alone in any sense except a purely geographical one."

Thats an interesting pov, care to expand on it a bit? or does it depend if you define 'Britain' as 'Britain + Empire and Dominions'?

When people sneer at Chamberlain they completely ignore the fact that in 38 Britain was preparing for war (for instance, see the book about "Hackney at war"). Shelters and trenches were being dug, the forces were re-arming as fast as the could. What exactly was Britain and France going to do instead of Munich- launch an under equipped under armoured army at the Veterans of Spain, with little modern air cover? We barely survived the defence of the channel 2 years later.

France, Greece, USA, Brazil, Yugoslavia and any country that independantly declared war through its own democratic body (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, Rhodesia).

Fred Bloggs – what a chump.
I stand slightly corrected – the British Empire stood alone, but I'll give you the Greeks. When, pray tell did the USA join the war? 1939? Nope. 1940? Getting warmer. 1941 – yep in the last month of the year.
With the exception of the Greeks who took offensive action against the Italians in Albania, I can't recall another great offensives by Yugoslavia or Brazil. As for the French, well a 100,000 or so escaped from France in May 1940. Soon after the rump of France and its colonies were Vichy – later proven enemies of the Allies.

France, if it declared war at all, would sit behind its Maginot line and do nothing. The British could send only a tiny BEF to France, and could do next to nothing alone. The Belgians were neutral. It all boils down to 1. Will Hitler back off, and 2. Can the Czechs defend themselves? I'd say, after losing the Sudatenland, no, before, yes, pretty well, but they had a long border to defend -- the Czech part of CS being almost surrounded by Germany/Austria.

The German army in 1938 was not in all that good a shape either.
A lot (not all) of the books I have read said that Hitler would have been "removed", had the "Allies" put up any kind of a united front in 1938. Maybe, maybe not.
It would be interesting to see what have happened then, had Hitler been removed with extreme prejudice.
"Heh, heh. Sorry about that."

Weren't Beck and the OKW ready to depose Hitler if the Czech negotiations failed?

The argument was that if France and Britain stood their ground then the OKW would depose him and replace him with a military backed conservative government.

How real was the threat and how effective would the army be if put to the test? I can't comment.

Calling Hitler's bluff over Czechoslovakia and he may have been removed but even if not his standing would have been badly damaged. An Italian/German alliance would have been far less likely.

Action could have been more likely as French and British aid was sent to the Spanish government and naval action likely to assist there as well.The "war" between Germany and Britain and France may well have been conducted in Spain by proxy. It's an interesting question, however
I doubt that Hitler would have seriously entered Czechoslaovakia if it risked a war with the Western democracies- he would have backed down.

More importantly today we would have not have the shame of Munich on our concience.

Gildas Fascit – Whilst you make some very cogent points, your faith in Foreign Office advice is very touching. After over 20 years in uniform it now gives me great pleasure to be able to say that the only thing that Foreign Office advice is designed to help is the Foreign Office. That said, given Chamberlain's rather provincial background, he may have been naive enought to take them at their word.

I actually think, given the efficacy of Czech weaponry in subsequent German use that the Czechs might well have given the boxheads a run for their money…In general I find this discussion fascinating – someone ought to write a book about bluff in history:

I am always amused by the debriefing of a senior Russian Taiman Guards Household Division officer who earnt his spurs during the erection of the Berlin Wall. His solemn duty was to personally check and guarantee to the Politburo that every single Russian unit involved, particualarly the amoured units, were carrying absolutely no ammunition. Apparently if so much as a single British or US Redcap had unholstered his sidearm, the orders were for a hasty and total climbdown!

Kind Regards,

Sparker

Interesting thread--Yes if we had actually stood up to Hitler in 38 and helped the Czechs then Hitler would have come badly unstuck…The Czechs army and Airforce were pretty good and the mountains around the Sudetenland were very well fortified--With British and French pressure Hitler would have had to back down or face a nightmare…The German people were not prepared for an all out war and Hitlers policy of "Guns and Butter" would have been severely knocked by an RN blockade, possible bombing and bad losses in fighting the Czechs--The Poles might have also taken the opportunity to have a go and grab some of Eastern Germany so as to secure the Danzig Corridor and give Hitler a good kicking….
Remember Hitler only did well after 1939 because his war effort was being underwritten by the Non Aggression Pact with Stalin--USSR provided a huge amount of food and resources to Germany in the first part of the war--In 1938 this wouldn't happen---

As mentioned above this would have given a huge boost to the Republicans in Spain--with a newly confident France and Britain probably helping a lot more and possibly helping to defeat Franco…..

"What would have happened if the war started in 1938?"

My Chinese friends point out that the war started much earlier than that. As FreddBloggs correctly points out, the British were not fighting alone.

Rick

The Very British Civil War source books are in a similar vein. I would highly suggest them as a plausible what if for 1938.

"the British were not fighting alone"…….Well if you include the Empire as Britain then, yes, apart from The Balkans in Spring 1941 we were fighting against the Germans pretty much on our own between summer 1940 and summer 1941, when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union…Yes the Chinese had been fighting the Japanese since 1937 but we didn't get involved against them till late 1941…..

Interesting thread to be sure and something we, as a group, had actually been discussing as being a 'what if' for our game design.

We were surprised by how well orgainized the Czech Army was, the Fast Division and the Cavalry Division being a case in point.

Considering the terrain of the country and the difficulty the panzer divisions had in the unnopposed 'invasion' of the Sudetanland it would have been an interesting little 'war'.

My opinion, and it is only an opinion, that if the Germans would have suffered some serious setbacks in Czech. then the entire Hitler regime could have fallen. I base this upon Hitler's own brinkmanship being based upon his own 'military first' bluff and bluster. If it failed to work out (As it did later in Poland politically speaking), then he could have found himself in serious trouble, again politically speaking.

As an aside, the French Army of 1938 was just about the same Army they would be using in both 1939 and 1940 with the DCRs, if I am correct, being the only formations missing. This means if Hitler fell into military problems in Czech it could have 'inspired' the French to make a move.

I fully admidt that the UK was ill prepared for a ground war in 1938 so they probably would have sat oon the sidelines.

Again an intersting 'what if' to consider.

We barely survived the defence of the channel 2 years later.

It's true – after the Kriegsmarine victory over the RN in the Battle of Dover, nothing but the RAF stood between Old Blighty and a horde of invading Huns….

Oh wait, that never happened, nor could it have.
-Kle.

Well if you include the Empire as Britain then, yes, apart from The Balkans in Spring 1941 we were fighting against the Germans pretty much on our own between summer 1940 and summer 1941, when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union…

Well, sure.
OTOH, the British Empire was the largest and most powerful nation in the world, at the time. It's not like you were Belgium, or something.
-Kle.

As to the actual topic, Hitler would either have backed down, or things would have gone even worse for him than they did IRL.

-Kle.

"The German army in 1938 was not in all that good a shape either."

It wasn't exactly on its knees though, just still rearming, so not quite as big as it was in 1939 or 1940.

Anyone got a 1938 German OB handy? it would be interesting to compare the correlation for Franco-Czech forces with German ones.

IIRC, the big board game A World in Flames allows for a 1938 start -- I never played it tho. Has anyone?

If faced with stiff opposition Hitler would have cut a deal then built up his army and gone for Russia, given the politics at the time, I wonder how much help we would have given the Russians?

No, a bit better off than Belgium. The Empire though was a somewhat distant, 'far flung' as the saying goes. Mighty amount of subjects of course, but only a proportion, not even a majority, available to actually mount a defence of the southeast coast of England if had been required. And, being an Empire, lots of other places to cover, and we know the Germans liked to concentrate their efforts.

Geographical isolation is though often muddled with political and social isolation in the discussion of course. Lots of nations to thank and not forget. Precious few friendly nations within twin engined aircraft range for a good long time though…

"Anyone got a 1938 German OB handy? it would be interesting to compare the correlation for Franco-Czech forces with German ones." 1 Panzer Division, 1 Panzer Division forming, 2 Cavalry Divisions, 30 Infantry Divisions and bunch of fortress divisions. Thats rough. Thre was double the cavalry and infantry in the reserve army but they were poorly equipped.

Well if I'm reading it right (from Bruce Quarrie's Encylopaedia of the German Army), Inf Divs numbered consecutively 1st to 36th were all formed prior to 1937, so should be available if not full strength.

1st to 3rd Panzer Divs dated as formed 1935, but enough tanks for all? And none of those handy Czech models to fill the gaps as yet.

Also 1st to 3rd Mountain Divs formed between 1938-39, but probably too early.

7th Parachute Div formed beginning 1938, so likely just a few elements available? And for the Army overall, the motorisation must've been pretty poor I'd think.

Here are some OOBs for the German 8th Army 11 March 1938 and German army Order of Battle – October 1, 1938 (Fall Grün) CanuckCommander :). Robert

link
link

link

Great link, Kaos. I wonder if we shouldn't look at the relative strengths of the air forces as well. Was the Luftwaffe any more ready than the army for a war in '38?

IIRC, the big board game A World in Flames allows for a 1938 start -- I never played it tho. Has anyone?

WiF starts in 1939 but there is an additional game called Days of Decision which allows you to play a stand alone game of the build up to WWII or to use it combined with WiF and then play a true alternate history.

I had one game of DoD + WiF where the only ally the Germans have when war starts was Belgium and the Czechs and Poles were both fully commited to the British and French side, the French had rearmed further and extended the Maginot line (which is why the Belgians hated them) and Germany was assailed from four sides. The French from the West, Poles from the East, Czechs from the South and the British via an invasion of IIRC Denmark followed by an advance into Northern Germany.

DoD is an interesting game but the majority of alternate starting points for WWII are not as balanced as the actual WWII ended up.

Excellent Kaos, especially that second one.

anleiher is correct: The German Army was ready to depose Hitler if the British and French had shown any backbone. This wasn't just a 'maybe' scenario or a half-baked "Valkyrie" scheme. The high command was ready to do it and they had the loyal troops in place. It was only when it became apparent that Hitler was correct and the West wouldn't do a thing that they called it off.

Thanks Guys :). I'll have to check around and see if I can find some TO&Es for the Luftwaffe in 1938. Robert

You have to consider some other downstream events too.

So Hitler has to back down and gets deposed….WW2 does _not_ start at all!

But the Nazi Party remains powerful with a large proportion of Germans as members, and they get going on another "backstabbing" kick – this time _by_ the army with all it's Jewish connections (that would be discovered in short order….)

The USSR decides that Germany in turmoil means it has a free hand in the Baltic and Poland – so it carves off the Baltic States, Bessarabia and eastern Poland just like it did in 39-40 anyway. Without a strong Germany there's nothing Hungary or Romania can do.

With no actual war in the west in 1939, France and the UK actually scale down their rearmament!

Finland still kicks Soviet butt, but Stalin's reorganisation of the armed forces proceeds without the interuption of Barbarossa, and by 1943 the Soviet Union has over 10,000 T34's in service, along with 3000 KV-1's, a few hundred KV-2's, and their new heavy tank the KV-4 with it's 107mm gun is just coming off the production lines.

It has also replaced all bolt action rifles with automatic Tokarevs, and it's airforce flys sturmoviks (albeit 1seaters as they haven't realised the need to a rear gunner yet!), Mig-3's, Yak's etc that are as good as any other low wing fighters in the world (as far as anyone can tell……)

And the officer corps has been somewhat rebuilt….

By 1943 something has been sorted out in Germany – eithe the Army is still in power after crushing numerous Nazi-led revolts, or all the generals have been shot or fled. Either way it is not about to start a war, but looks like it will not be able to oppose the USSR's further ambitions for buffer areas – Romania, Hungary and Poland all "invite" the Soviets onto their territory, and the Iron curtain comes down a bit earlier and a bit further east than it did in 1947……

Obviously this is only one thought exercise & there are any number of ways something else might have happened…so feel free to indulge in some pointless speculation :)

… so feel free to indulge in some pointless speculation

One of my favorite hobbies!

Interesting stuff…

Throwing my two cents in – there doesn't seem to be any reason that Britain and France would throw their lot in with the Spanish Republicans in 1938…they weren't willing to prior to that year.

Also, I don't think that there is any reason to believe that either France or England had the political will to stand up to Hitler 20 years after a nightmarish World War and no shortage of reactionary sympathy for standing up to the Socialists and Communists who were gaining power in both countries.

"A Very British Civil War" maybe seems to cover this territory (can't wait to get a copy – great idea for a game!). What if the French and British (and possibly Polish) allied themselves with Germany in its fight against Bolshevism? Or at least stood back and watched?

Again, pointless speculation…