"Russo-Polish War of 2010" Topic

Thought this was an interesting item.

link

Keeping politics out of it, who would win militarily, assuming a primarily conventional conflict?

How would you game it? What rules and what figures would you use, especially in 28mm?

Nice idea. I would play this in 3mm though.

Cheers
Mark

Isn't Poland in NATO? if so They would win.

Russia's first priority: making sure its planes don't fall from the sky:

link

I wouldn't want to be the Russian operator of the nuclear weapons that would supposedly be deployed against Poland in case of such an attack. You'd have to factor in the decrepitude of the Russian military in any such game. The nuclear saber is pretty much the only saber the Russians have to rattle at this point.

Yes, Poland is a NATO country.

Soviets…er…Russians would roll over the Poles in about 3 days.

Does anyone honestly think NATO has the Moxie anymore (or willpower) to try to stop the bear?

I sure don't.

Wouldn't that excercise have been on the 70th anniversary of when they did it last time? Rather insensitive timing.
Egg

I believe that NATO would stand up to a Russian invasion of Poland. At first they would try to resolve it through diplomatic means and a deadline, which if passed would lead to military involvement.

What I wouldn't want to see though is the limited surgial warfare that is in use today. Bring back the carpet bombers and heavy artillery followed by thousands of troops marching in for mop up ops.

I do not believe that the Russian military is strong enough to defeat NATO, but, they are strong enough and have the manpower reserves to cause a long drawn out war.

I think Poland could last a week or more while waiting for allied help. Also as soon as the war broke out with NATO, Georgia would take back their break away states and what would the other former republics do? Would Ukraine join us and give the bear a black eye and bloody nose? I believe they would, just to get the point across to Moscow that the days of Kiev falling under the shadow of Russia is over.

Best sentence: "To ensure the strategic stability in the East European region". Preferably with a new pro-Russian people elected government ;) When will the 'West' remember not to thrust Russians regarding safety?

Agreed Warlock. A few days max with tactical nuclear strikes as is the current Russian doctrine. Not enough Patriots and similar defense systems installed in Poland unfortunately.

Camelspider: Its unfortunate but the Russians don't bother / care about casualties, as shown during the Georgia conflict.

Gaming would be best in 3mm with Oddział Ósmy [O8] miniatures. I remember Marcin from O8 saying he is working on the current modern Polish forces. I am not too sure there are enough minis available in 28mm…

The armed forces are said to have carried out "war games" in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country's coast.

First line of the story "Nuclear missles fired" man they take gaming way too serious

Cosmicbank: Nuclear weapons use is the brand new updated Russian military doctrine. Who needs North Korea and Iran anymore…

Getting back to wargaming, I think the Russians could still be halted somewhere in Germany. I am not sure NATO would be able to mobilize enough reserves stop the atomic tipped Russian juggernaut in Poland. What with all those nukes flying about.
In the long term, NATO could win with the use of US reserves, but this would definitely be a Pyrrhus victory…

If say Poland left NATO and had a strop against Russia militarily they would last a few days--However Russia may not even need to invade just wait for a cold winter and switch off the gas!!

There is, after all, that long history of Russian-Polish relations that are, to be diplomatic, not very sanguine

If push came to shove, I think the Russkies would probably not move into Germany – given their behaviour in Georgia, I suspect they would mow over the Poles, get to the German border, halt and then piously ask the UN to mediate

One wonders if this will have the effect of pushing Poland to increase military spending (as much as is possible given their economic situation) and accelerate modernization of the military to NATO standards.

From all accounts, Poland has increased military spending and has worked hard to modernize their military. In the air they've got a lot of new F-16s (well, new to them) and fields a large number of MiG-29's. They've been buying up tanks and updating old ones as well as training their military hard.

They want to be an effective member of NATO and have not forgotten their history at all. It probably didn't help that the US dumped the missile shield without prior notice to them. They are probably fearing the worst right about now.

"Does anyone honestly think NATO has the Moxie anymore".

No.

I imagine if Russia wanted Poland again, it could have it.

Granted, there would be a lot of griping and complaining by many at the UN, but if they conducted a lightning strike, and stopped at the German border, their countermeasures would be relatively ineffective.

I doubt anyone will use nukes over the issue.

There might be a protracted, low-level guerrilla war by some Poles.

Complaining by other EU countries would be nixed by threatening to cut off natural gas and oil to them in Winter.

I don't think the USA is in a position to become embroiled militarily on another front.

If the state of our economy and the massive debt the US now has, even if we did inerfene and win the war the cost would destroy this country.

Camelspider: Its unfortunate but the Russians don't bother / care about casualties, as shown during the Georgia conflict.

It's not a matter of caring about casualties, it's a matter of getting the weapons to work correctly.

Poland is not Georgia. Poland is a NATO country. If the Russians used nuclear weapons in their attack, NATO would respond in kind, using tactical nuclear weapons against the Russian formations.

Poland is modernizing, including getting some Western tanks in its arsenal, which have proven significantly superior to Russian tanks. It's also just become a professional army rather than a conscript army, and that would tell as well in the resulting conflict.

Russia is a shadow of what it was. If it did not attack while it was strong, it's not going to attack while it's weak. These demonstrations are just to say "we're relevant," which one tends not to say when one actually is. It's like that cruise by a small Russian squadron to Cuba -- the US decided to ignore it, which was exactly the right move.

I doubt anyone will use nukes over the issue.

But that's fighting the fact-pattern, as the original article is about a nuclear attack on Poland in conjunction with a ground war. Fact is though, Russia would bring down a poopie storm on its head if it used nuclear weapons to attack Poland. And then, what would it gain? Occupation of an irradiated Poland?

If the state of our economy and the massive debt the US now has, even if we did inerfene and win the war the cost would destroy this country.

Actually let's not forget what got America out of the last depression.

lets face it
Despite modernization attempts Polish army is under financed and quite weak.

But i don't think that it would be broken like house of cards and start to run away as Georgian army did.

Level of commitment that Russia was able to use in Georgia wouldn't be a real danger to Poland.
And atomic exchange would involve NATO for sure.

Not meaning any disrespect, but if the Russkies did it right (very selective use of tactical-grade nukes, blitzkrieg to the German border, stop and bleet the right noises) I suspect that they would get away with it – while the Polish army is no question bigger than the Georgian one (which was heavily US-equipped and trained), the Russians showed a commendable level of grand tactical ability, well above what has been the case for the past two decades, so they could get away with it – especially, as noted, since the US is currently over-committed – while the Brits and US are busy in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Russians have a certain window of opportunity

In this case, as the nukes would only go one way, not exactly an exchange

Ability of soviet forces to conduct blitzkrieg was shown at Georgia and Chechnya, so it is purely speculative SciFi :>

Dont think about today Russia like Soviet Union, more like pre WW I Russia.

"Russians would roll over the Poles in about 3 days. "

Doubt it, though they would win w/out Nato assistance.

Im gaming the same battle but in 2250. No more Nato, but Ukraine and Germany still come to Polands aid. Russia attacks Georgia at the same time. Chechnya also takes advantage of the situation to split off…again.

I'm using 5150 rules w/ 28mm figs.
Poles = Pig Iron Heavy Infantry
Ukranian's = Pig Iron Militia
Russians = EM-4 and Copplestone Future Wars "Troopsers"
Germans = GZG's Neu Swabian League
Polish resistance = Copplestones Scavengers
Georgians = Copplestones Neo-soviets and Partizans
Chechens = waiting for Wargame Factory's Future Islamic Rebels

Old Crow and Pig Iron Vehicles.

Good thread.

Assuming Russia dosen't somehow manage to suprise the entire world and invades an utterly unmobilised Poland. I'd go for a re-run of the 1920's Russo-Polish war i.e. Russia gets 'served' with added NATO naval & airpower interventions and EU rapid reaction forces. Plus lots of messy Caucuss sideshows!

Georgia is nothing like Poland and Russia committed a virtualy entirely professional force with overwhelming numbers. As for Chechnya in their first outing they managed to ignore their own urban warfare docturines and got their fingers severly burnt.

As for the US not wading due to a lack of cash and Polands defence modernisation being underfunded, what about Russia's military finances?

Still would make a nice speculative post-modern game.

NATO? That's really funny.

I think there are lot of areas where Russian/whomever skirmishes (like Ossetia) are likely. (I don't know about Poland being one of them.)

But Russia doesn't have to invade anyone anymore. The fact that they have sufficient economic power, critical economic ties (energy resource), and the demonstrated will to use their military () means precisely that they don't have to invade anyone to get their way.

What you are going to see are Russian proxies like Venezuela bullying their neighbors.

No one currently makes 15mm Polish though Pole Bitwy was working on some greens.

You can see tons of photos of Polish troops at MilitaryPhotos.Net. My internet connection has gone all TMP tonight so can't provide a direct link but this will take you to the main page: link

Cheers
Mark

Kyoteblue: tons of photos of modern Polish forces for example here: link

Regarding 15mm, I am working on them with the sculptor.

while the Polish army is no question bigger than the Georgian one (which was heavily US-equipped and trained),

Not really. It got some US equipment, and a fraction of the infantry battalions received some US training. Other than that it was basically a comic-opera militia force.

the Russians showed a commendable level of grand tactical ability,

Exploiting command of the air and sea and superior mechanisation, though, is not really all that commendable, it's to be expected.

In this case, as the nukes would only go one way, not exactly an exchange

Trust me, if the Russians began using nuclear weapons against a NATO country, the Russian forces would themselves get fried, pronto. The Russians know this.

Isn't Poland in NATO? if so They would win.

You mean like in Afghanistan, right?
--
Tim

Again, not meaning to speak ill of our NATO allies, but the Western Europeans have shown their willingness to fight to the last Yank, Brit and Canuck

As to Georgia, in five days the Russians managed to get a mechanized and airborne corps operational, deployed and on their objectives – no mean feat

"As to Georgia, in five days the Russians managed to get a mechanized and airborne corps operational, deployed and on their objectives – no mean feat

Not really: the whole campaign was a set up to give the Georgians a drubbing…the Russians had all the forces mobilised including naval elements, all good to go before the Georgians fell for the bait, then swatted them.

Also a recent report indicated lots of failings in the Russian ops, particularly the ground/air coordination was non-existent (OSCE report IIRC), with several Russian friendly fire accidents….

Besides you can't hide a mobilisation of the scale we talking about- everyone would see it coming and line up accordingly.

My money's on the Poles.

The atlantic charter prooved an ally you cant openly support is not worth having.Poland will be crushed and nato
subverted the moment the Russians give east Prussia back to Germany.

Again, not meaning to speak ill of our NATO allies, but the Western Europeans have shown their willingness to fight to the last Yank, Brit and Canuck

The Western countries will have to go in too: they have a stated commitment. Hitler thought the decadent Western countries wouldn't go to Poland's aid too. When was the last time Britain or France did not honour a treaty as important as NATO? (Last time a similar thing happened was Kuwait, and both Britain and France sent sizeable contingents.)

Anyway, the Eastern countries (Czechs, Estonians, Latvians, Hungarians) will insist on it. They are not going to be cowed by Russia again.

If the US wants to exert any dominance in the world, then protecting countries like Poland is of the highest importance.

Its unfortunate but the Russians don't bother / care about casualties, as shown during the Georgia conflict.

Of course they care. This myth that somehow Russians don't mind dying horribly really ought to be put to bed.

The Tsar fell because he lost a war. Afghanistan was a major cause of the Soviets going broke.

The Russian government can only ignore casualties if the war is prosecuted successfully. Admittedly Poland would be a popular enemy.

Seems our american friends have no idea about the European commitment to NATO.

NATO recently deployed fighter aircraft (including RAF tornadoes) to the baltic to stop Russian overflights of (I think) Estonian airspace.

Also russia was threatened with severe economic sanctions over the e-atack on (I think…) Latvia last year.

russia does have the gas, but if the EU pulls the financial rug from under Russia, it collapses.

Militarily, not only the British, Canadians and Americans are fighting in Afghanistan.

The Danes and Dutch have significant contingents (for their size), including on the Danish part Leopard IIs. The Baltic states also have hundred sof troops deployed which is a lot of their resources.

The French and Germans aren't fighting because they have quiet sectors and frankly like it that way. Both have taken action against the Taliban when required.

However the small number of German troops deployed in Afghanistan does mean the Bundeswehr is available to immediately back up the Poles.

And yes, NATO would fight the Russians, with or without American help. You only have to talk to an Eastern European to understand how much the Russians are hated.

And if the Russians took a big pasting, the Finns might well 'ask' for Viborg back….

Bottom line. It's not that most NATO countries won't fight. It's they pick their fights with care.

Well first of all I can not imagine why would Russia attack Poland as I can't see any gains from it and plenty of problems.
Second, there's no even direct border between Russia and Poland apart of the one in Kaliningrad district, so that would mean Russia has to deal with Lukashenko, who is a corrupted bastard, playing european and russian cards to his advantage. He would hardly allow a passage of ground force across Byelorussia, bearing in mind possible consequences. Another option will be a coup against him, but he is quite popular in his country, despite of all.
Third, if Ukraine is joining such a conflict, there's a possibility of civil war there and possible sepration of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Well if we put aside all real life complications, for sure it can be played and as I pointed out, there's many battlefields that can be fought.

Phillipaj – no, not really. The Red/Soviet/Russian army has been structured around and planned for rapid mobilisation since the days of Trotsky and Frunze.

The conflict in S.Ossetia was the latest demonstration of their ability to do this and Deep Operations.

Also, check your history when the Warsaw Pact states (ex Romania) mounted their 'fraternal invasion' of Czechoslovakia in 1968 no-one in the West saw it coming. They used their annual exercises as a smoke screen and moved straight out of their barracks.

As I said they plan to fight like that.

The sad thing is that, when I read "Russo-Polish War of 2010", I thought it would be great to play a futuristic war between Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe.

Then I realized that 2010 was just a year a way.

I must be getting old.

CC

It does make for an interesting campaign. It further inspires me to create a break-away imagination.

Finally a word of reality from Barin.
The Moon must have been getting quite crowded…

CC – not old, just experienced

Interesting thread

I'd have thought that it would be a somewhat phyric (be it unlikely) victory anyway.

I can see the day the Russians launched such an operation being the last day a functioning pipeline existed more than a few kilometres outside Russian soil, whatver the short term economic pain in the west.

There is another aspect to consider here – in case Russia would decide "to pull the trigger", all former Warsaw Pact countries would assume what I call 'shit in their pants'-mode. I have very hard time seeing this scenario developing to conclusion without some sort of escalation in Ukraine, Baltic states, Slovakia and Hungary.

Seen from yet another perspective, even though I doubt Poland would be able to resist for very long on its own, it would have nevertheless been a very nasty war. Russo-Polish relations is one of the perpetual Pandora's Boxes of Europe and I think that Western Europeans have hard time understanding intensity of feelings that would quickly flame up. Of course emotions are very seldom among deciding factors in an armed conflict, but I can't imagine pardon would be asked or given. That alone could transform such a move on the part of the Russians into a potentially very costly gamble.

Played something like this at a MichiCon. A Polish T-55 stands little chance against a Russian T-80, let alone a T-64. It was the first time I had ever run a minis event at a convention, but perhaps I have said way too much already.

We have quite a few T-55s in museums ; ) Poland currently uses upgraded T-72, PT-91 link as well as 128 Leopard 2A4 tanks.

I don't know about Russian power. They have what? 10-20 divisions in various states of readiness? A far cry from the old Soviet Union. Their own performance in their last couple of wars isn't up to Soviet standards by any stretch. Plus they would have to get through the Ukraine anyway…

It's kinda of hard to sabre rattle with a rusty and broken blade.

The Poles being upset by this shouldn't be a suprise. They've had the Russians plowing though them every few decades and at least three times in the last century. Not a happy state of affairs to say the least.

Would Russia do it? No, they are way too weak and would be clobbered badly right now. 20 years from now? Who's to say?

As for the US being overextended… not really. The US still has 3-4 divisions that could be raised to combat strength and at least one division in Europe already. Also, the US has nearly its entire Airforce and Navy on hand for battle too (Iraq and Afganistan don't require huge numbers of aircraft… just grunts and choppers).

If Obama made the call then the Russians would lose air control in just a matter of hours and would face having their armored columns bombed and strafed. The Russians had a rough go with the Georgian airforce and it has nothing like the power of the US, not to mention that the USAF would be fighting over friendly territory (Poland and Ukraine) where combat losses could be recovered and back into action quickly. I think that would be enough for the Polish forces to hold on until western NATO forces arrived in strength (including one US mech division).

Even if the rest of NATO could only scrape up a couple of divisions that would be enough to push the Russians out of Poland. Also, the Russians would have to be looking over their shoulder at the Ukraine which is very friendly to NATO. That puts another 3-4 divisions sitting on an exposed flank. Not a pretty picture for Russia.

Anyway, not a very likely war, but an interesting scenario for wargaming.