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"What if the Schliffen Plan Works?" Topic


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ScottWashburn Sponsoring Member of TMP01 Nov 2009 4:50 p.m. PST

Had an odd thought today: What if the German's Schliffen Plan works and France is knocked out of the war in the first few months? I'm not asking if or how it could work, let's just assume that it does work, Paris falls, and the French sue for peace in the fall of 1914. What happens next? Does Russia make terms, too? Does Italy make good on its treaty commitments and join the Central Powers? What about England? Is the whole thing over and done with by the spring of 1915? No years of mass slaughter. No revolution in Russia (not yet anyway). The old monarchies remain in power. The Ottoman Empire staggers on for a while longer. Does it just become another one of those periodic wars that Europe has very 30 years. What comes next?

What do you think?

Personal logo John the OFM Supporting Member of TMP01 Nov 2009 5:01 p.m. PST

France adopts the Bitter Loser Syndrome instead of Germany.
Everything bad and malevolent committed by the Germans in our timeline is now committed by France, including the Holocaust. A scapegoat is needed.
In the next go-around, Britain is allied with a democratic Germany.

Berlichtingen01 Nov 2009 6:13 p.m. PST

Actually, the Schliffen Plan probably would have worked. Moltke the Younger gutted the plan

drummer01 Nov 2009 6:55 p.m. PST

First, I don't think the French would have surrendered even if they had lost Paris after taking even greater losses. The war would have gone on, with France more weakened and fighting more defensively south of Paris. They had huge reserves and could draw manpower from the colonies and supplies from America.

Meanwhile the Germans would have become overconfident and could not settle for anything less than hegemony. The Russians are eventually knocked out but by then the German conomy is in shambles due to total war footing and the blockade. Nationalism being what it was unrest in the occupied areas would become increasingly hard to deal with. There would also be the Social Democrats to deal with at home.

By then the USA would have been involved and although the Americans would end up fighting longer and harder, Germany probably still goes down and left-wing governments spread throughout Continental Europe because the Western governments are too weak to stop it from happening. So the big winner would be the Communists.

And Moltke's changes did not 'gut' the Plan. It was unsound logistically and the Germans could not wheel any further west or make the right wing any stronger than Moltke's version and make it to Paris before the artillery ammunition ran low and the men were exhausted. The Germans probably shouldn't have moved two corps to the East, but even if these corps remained in the West I think they still would have been stopped short of Paris. They just would have fallen back less.

John Leahy Sponsoring Member of TMP01 Nov 2009 8:33 p.m. PST

I disagree about the plan being unsound. If the German right had not turned left to engage the BEF and the two corps were not taken the BEF may have been destroyed. The French left flank would have been in a severe situation. I think wothout the BEF the Germans may well have won the war then.

Thanks,

John

The Black Tower01 Nov 2009 9:04 p.m. PST

The main goal of the war was to gain land in the east, a treaty tied France and Russia and France would be the immediate danger,

Yes, I think France wanted to regain it's honour and would have gone the full 15 rounds with Germany.

But it would have been a more mobile war with trench systems around key industrial areas, a bit like the RCW

The result would have been worse for Germany as the trench system actually enabled them to fight the war on 2 fronts and defend their ill gotten gains for far longer than a mobile war would have.

McWong7301 Nov 2009 10:21 p.m. PST

Would take a lot more than just Paris falling to make the French surrender, so if France has surrendered the war is over.

The Revolution in Russia was influenced heavily by WW1, but WW1 was not the cause so there's trouble brewing no matter what.

Isn't there a game alraedy for this? Tannhauser or something?

Cerdic02 Nov 2009 2:23 a.m. PST

There had already been an attempted revolution in Russia in 1904, so it was only a matter of time……

Martin Rapier02 Nov 2009 4:06 a.m. PST

"Would take a lot more than just Paris falling to make the French surrender"

Like the encirclement and destruction of her entire Army? (Which was what the Schlieffen Plan actually aimed for).

drummer02 Nov 2009 6:43 a.m. PST

Certainly the destruction of the entire army would have resulted in surrender, but that sounds like a fantasy to me. For this to happen the entire French Army has to stay in Alsace-Lorrain for several weeks with full knowledge the Germans are slowly encircling them. There are ample rail transport and road networks to carry them to safety but they have to just sit there and do nothing. There is no rational explanation as to how this could happen.

I could see one field army being encircled and destroyed, but not all five. I definitely can see Verdun being lost in 1914. But that doesn't knock France out of the War in 1914.

But for the sake of staying on topic then yes, if the French willingly commit suicide for the sake of the Schliefen plan then the Germans win the war.

My pessimism about Schliefen's lack of realistic planning for logistics is not an article of faith and I'd be happy to learn why it might have worked. The best assessments of the logistics of the plan come from van Creveld's in Supplying War.

link

And Brose's 'The Kaiser's Army'

link

ScottWashburn Sponsoring Member of TMP02 Nov 2009 9:32 a.m. PST

As I stated in my original post, I did not want to start a discussion on why the Schliffen plan didn't work, or couldn't work or how it might have been made to work. Rather, I wanted to start with the assumption that it did work and achieved it's goal of knocking France out of the war quickly. How does that affect the rest of the war and the long-term history of Europe?

ZeroTwentythree02 Nov 2009 10:09 a.m. PST

Isn't there a game alraedy for this? Tannhauser or something?

Are you suggesting that the French defeat would result in alien technology, mythological and undead creatures walking the earth, etc. ;)

drummer02 Nov 2009 10:41 a.m. PST

Sorry for getting off topic. As I said I believe that even a quick easy victory over France in 1914 would not save the Imperial German Government from eventually falling sometime later in the 20th Century after a long series of wars against the UK and USA and whoever ruled in Russia. Science would dispel the mystique of and nostalgia for their nobility and the forces of Nationalism and Socialism would overthrow them. The big winners would be the Communist/Socialist (possibly Fascist) governments that replace the Imperial Germans and the lands they occupied by military force.

Well, you asked. Probably not the answer you were expecting but there ya go.

Ralphio02 Nov 2009 11:28 a.m. PST

Well, say france is knocked out of the war, and the germans hold western europe, they would have turned against Russia and probly beat her armies and make her sue for peace. Perhaps taking over much of wetern Russia, as the settlement.

Germany would be happy as masters of Europe, aloneg with Austria-Hungary, who (with german help) would take over the baltic.

War over.

Jovian102 Nov 2009 11:36 a.m. PST

My viewpoint:

The Von Schlieffen plan works, the Germans encircle the French army, the British are rolled back to the coast and evacuated. The French government collapses again, and the monarchists and the communists fight in a power struggle for control over the French government. Germany consolidates power over the Lorraine and Rhineland areas in a territorial cession in the peace accords. The French army is paroled from their encirclment. France falls into a civil war between the various factions. Russia, seeing that it's stalwart ally has falled, continues on with the war and pours vast resources into stabilizing the front. Germany transfers all but a few scattered units to the Russian front, conducts a break-through along the Southern front and conducts another encirclement of the Russian army. The Russian monarchy collapses, the Russian Civil War begins early. With Russian effectively out of the war, Germany consolidates it's borders by occupying Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which are granted the same status as other provinces within Germany by the mid-1920's. Italy, now on the wrong side of the fighting, finds itself involved in a war where the Germans and the Austro-Hungarian forces are able to crush Italian resistance, Italy sues for peace. Austria secures it's hold on the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire succeeds in securing portions of the middle east and parts of the Baltic.

Britain fights on, tries to get the U.S. involved, U.S. refuses to get involved in a civil war in Europe, signs treaty with Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire to remain neutral in Europe for consessions of the French colonies. U.S. expands influence in the far east, annexes the French colonies in the far east, leaves Africa to the Belgians and the Germans. U.S. provides "protection" for the colonial interests of U.S. companies from the turmoil of the French civil war and continues to engage in a "cold war" with Japan for naval supremacy in the far east.

Tanks are not invented, the aircraft continues to evolve at a snails pace. Super-battleships are developed as the Naval treaties are abandoned. Aircraft carriers are slowly developed, first by the British, but adopted by other powers by the mid to late 1920's and early 1930's. Germany builds the Graf Zepplin aircraft carrier and builds high-altitude Zepplin bombers for naval engagements with naval "Zepplin Tender" ships with masts and aerials for servicing Zepplins at sea.

The Communists consolidate power in France and Russia by 1928. The stock market does not fall in 1929, but manages to continue on until the mid-1930's until the mass fraud is found, the world banking system flounders on massive bank failures, the Great Depression begins after the U.S. dust bowl days, and WWII starts in the mid 1940's as a Polish uprising against the German occupancy and supported by the Russian communists.

Japan has secured Manchuria, and waits until the fuse in Europe has been lit to launch an invasion of China. Japan invades China as a liberation army to kick out the colonial powers (especially the U.S., Britain, and Germany). Russia and France sign another treaty and include Japan in a non-aggression pact and mutual alliance against Germany, Britain and the U.S.

Italy signs with the Ottoman Empire against the British and joins forces with France and Russia for territorial gains in North Africa and the Balkans and to kick the British out of the Mediteranean basin once and for all.

In Spain, the civil war begins with the economic collapse in the 1930's and continues with neither side gaining any ground despite military aid from Russia, France and Germany toward various factions. Ultimately, the Spanish civil war is resolved with the Monarchists gaining control as French and Russian aid for the Communists dissolves and military aid for a constitutional monarchy from the British, Germans and U.S. secures peace. Spain remains neutral during the ensuing conflict.

The allied forces of the British Empire, Germany, and the U.S. wage all out war against the Russians, French, Japanese, Ottomans and Italians. The British Empire launches an invasion of Russian territory as liberators from the communist powers through India, led by Indian and Commonwealth troops from Canada and Britain. The Austrialian and New Zealand troops with U.S. allies engage in an island hopping campaign against the Japanese in Malaysia and Indo-China and ultimately they gain allies with the Chinese forces of Chian Kai-Shek, forcing Japan to sue for peace in 1951 with the concession of Hokkaido, and Okinawa to the Americans and British, respectively. Russia collapses as the Communists lose the Balkan oil fields to a combined assault from the British and German forces who penetrate deep into Russia. Italy and the Ottoman empire sue for peace in 1949. Italy adopts a parlementarian form of government. The Ottoman empire adopts a constitutional monarchy and surrenders most of the territories outside of Asia Minor and a strip of territory in the Balkans. The Balkans are reincorporated into the Austrian-Hungarian empire, which also adopts a constitutional monarchy and Germany remains under the rule of the Kaiser. Russian Communist forces finally surrender after Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin are all killed in a surprise daylight bombing raid by the U.S. from across the North Pole.

France, after a failed amphibious invasion attempt on England and losing ground against the Germans in the Ardennes, sues for peace in 1952. France's communist party collapses with the peace treaty and France remains in a fractured parlementarian system with a collaboration government in power with various wary allies vying for supremacy.

The U.S. finds it's industrial might and maintains a vast colonial empire over bases across the Pacific in Indo-China and finds itself involved in the Vietnam war in the mid 1950s. The U.S. continues to expand it's influence in South America by allowing various states to petition for state-hood, with Bolivia, Columbia, Guatemala, and Brazil petitioning for State-hood in the 1950's and being admitted in 1957.

China, after Chian Kai-Shek allies with the U.S., Britain and Germany, consolidates power, purges the Communists, and establishes a right-wing dictatorship. China falls into civil war again with his death in the 1950's, the communists again rise to power, but are defeated by the constitutional monarchist powers and the re-establishment of Imperial China as a constitutional monarchy. The Forbidden City is established as the Parliament with the inner city the Imperial Palace.

Peace is roughly established throughout the world by the mid 1970's until the oil revolts in the Middle East, followed by the cessation of colonialism by the major powers and the ceding of various out-lying colonies to self government in the early 1980s. Minor civil wars and territorial wars continue into the mid 1990's.

Mexico petitions for state-hood following a military coup and civil war in the 1980's and after military intervention by the U.S. after the civil war spilled over into Califoria and Texas. General George Bush is in command of the U.S. expeditionary forces in Northern Mexico, while Commander Condolezza Rice is involved in pacifying the Oaxaca and southern areas of Mexico.

The first non-North American President is elected in 2008.

Aren't alternative histories fun to speculate about?

recon3502 Nov 2009 12:41 p.m. PST

I wish you'd put more thought into your responses, Jovian…

Jovian102 Nov 2009 1:42 p.m. PST

LOL grin – yeah, me too. I rethought Spain already as it didn't do justice to Franco.

The Black Tower02 Nov 2009 2:21 p.m. PST

wanted to start with the assumption that it did work and achieved it's goal of knocking France out of the war quickly. How does that affect the rest of the war and the long-term history of Europe?

It depends on what you mean by "Knocking Out"
In WW2 France was knocked out but a lot of manpower had to be kept their to secure the occupied territories.

The Eastern front would prove just as deadly for the WW1 troops as it did for those in WW2

I think that British aid to Russia and maybe a British supplied rebellion in the Southern "Free France" would see the German army bled slowly to death

Japan, on the Allied side would attack and seize German possessions in the Pacific and the German occupied French Belgian and Dutch territories in Asia

Germany in a desperate attempt to distract the Americans from involvement in Europe sends military aid to Mexico and also tries to start a war in Ireland which will tie up British troops and may cause mutiny in some regiments
It also sends a chap called Lenin to Russia…

America takes the bait and adds another star to the flag!

Airships are used a the most cost effective anti submarine patrols

Benandorf02 Nov 2009 6:00 p.m. PST

Russian Communist forces finally surrender after Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin are all killed in a surprise daylight bombing raid by the U.S. from across the North Pole.

It was great until there, and then started going downhill, and then the whole "General Bush" thing kinda killed it, especially with "Commander Rice".

Old Goat05 Nov 2009 3:14 p.m. PST

The Schliffen plan has the resources it needs to take Paris, the frnech government falls back and then falls back again. French army breaks out of Alsace Lorraine moves back towards Normandy where what's left of the French government is, Britain by now extremely windy around German utlisation of the French High Seas Fleet fights with the French out of Normandy. Meanwhile the Royal Navy attempts ever more eccentric plans to negate German and French combined High Seas Fleets.

With the French effectively out of the fight excepting slip of land on the North West coast and with the loss of much of her navy. German naval blockade makes life very difficult in Britain. No need for unrestricted submarine warfare as the Blockade starts to tell. Wilson in the USA lacking popular public opinion for entering the war stays well clear. Stays as semi belligerent neutral.

Dwindling British and French resources lead increasingly to yet more defeats on the Normandy fronts. Gefreiter Hitler killed in Gas Attack. Colonel Churchill killed when Divisional HQ comes under HE artillery barrage as part of German Kaiserschlact end of 1916.

British and French empires become hostage in their ports due to combined Frnech/German fleets.

Meanwhile Russian mobilisation following outbreak of war leads to early defeats and as the French and British become bottled up on Normandy coast more German divisions head East. Russia sues for peace after massive losses shortly followed by revolution. Italy stays clear of hostilities until Austro Hungarian expansion forces her hand. Italians sue for peace.

Unacceptable losses on Normandy coast and increasing will to fight of France leads Britain and France to negotiation table. Armistice signed by Britain and France early 1917

USA signs treaty with German European Federation.

Germany demands massice reparations from France & Britain leading to German backed Independence for India and Indo-China in 1921. Africa becomes almost exclusivly German in government.

Russia heads into revolution around 1918/1919 RCW over quickly as Germany has no interest in supporting White Russia. Instead signs treaty with Japan and move into China together.

The Fledgling American empire signs treaty with German empire. Russia continues to pull herself to pieces.

By 1930 Germany has inherited a commerical empire on which the Sun never Sets.

Two rival blocks develop; militaristic, monarchistic German Empire and the commercial trading empire of the USA.

By 1947 Willhelm II dies and Willhelm III ascends the throne, marries Princess Elizabeth, King Edward VIII's niece in 1949.

By 1955 uneasy peace between US and German Empire is sparked into conflict over US sponsor ship of Communist rebels in China.

Gotha MKXII delivers hithertoo unseen secrest weapon that explodes on US governed island of Cuba.

Prince Charles has less prominent ears and ascends the throne to become Emperor Charles the First of the Greater German Empire, he doesn't talk to plants and wear a Kaftan.

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