"The new "Graveyard of Empires"?" Topic

For roughly 200-odd years Afghanistan has been known by the above title (and is still proving worthy).

My question is intended for Near-Future Wargaming scenario/ campaign fodder and absolutely is not meant to be a political op ed discussion by any means.

So, aside from Afghanistan, which country (or Political region) stands the best chance of causing the largest drain of resources (men, material and $) over the next coming century? If your answer is not a seemingly more obvious one, then please give a brief explanation or potential scenario why. If you really feel Afghanistan will likely retain its "title" for the next 100+ years feel free to state why and who will fight there.

For me? Taiwan, Pakistan, Iran, and Kashmir might all seem to be sure bets, but more interesting (to me) is the North "Caucus" Region. It still looks a lot like a powder keg or a volcano waiting to re-erupt.

I couldn't settle on just one country, but then the conglomerate of "states" (ethnic regions? provinces?) nestled in between Georgia and Russia (see accompanying maps) seem to change their names every 40-50 years or so anyway.

And while Chechnya hasn't proved to be a death bringer to the Russian Govt (though nearly), I think we've far from heard the last of it as a Russian military front (and graveyard). Case in point (for the above scenario sake), when the US+Allies do leave Iraq and Afghanistan, where will all the unemployed "Muj's" go? Why not back to the futile North Caucus and the old (second favorite, to the US) enemy….the "Godless" Russians?

Thanks for any input!

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"So, aside from Afghanistan, which country (or Political region) stands the best chance of causing the largest drain of resources (men, material and $) over the next coming century?"

I guess it all depends on how far into the century.

Could you pin it down further?

CC

I'm thinking at the dawn of the next century, say "2100AD", when historians look back, what Country (or again, ethnic region, break-away state, etc…) will be looked at as worthy s replacing Afghanistan with the Mantle of, if not "Graveyard of Empires"…perhaps "Graveyard of 21st century militarys" in this case.

How's that?

The Amish are getting restless….

Wyatt

Ukraine? Kazakhstan?

"That's easy, Bongolesia !!!!"

Funnily enough, Kyoteblue, if you mean the country that the Aussies refer to as Bongolesia, with its hugely geographically variant area, diverse population, dictatorial ci-disant leaders and internal problems then yes, should trouble start in Bongolesia *cough*Indonesia*cough* it would be a hell of a situation for any type of force involved.

Some of the problems involved are outlined accurately in James Cobb's book "Target Lock"

The new "Graveyard of Empires" is America. People count us out, be somehow we nearly always come out ahead. We have defeated the British Empire, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Soviet Russia. And I'm not counting lesser opponents, such as late Imperial Spain or Santa Ana's Mexico and their ilk.

I don't know for sure, but hear me out.

Premise:
Even if the more industrialized nations find some alternatives . . .

What if, during the next 50 years, the world in general cannot (or simply does not) develop an alternative to fossil fuels.

Resources everyone wants:

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That still leaves countries like Afghanistan (strategic territories for control of other sites) in the firing line.

The result . . . Fuel and Water Wars:

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CC

i'd say eastern asia and east africa for the next 50 years.

I really don't see why the geopolitics of the last two hundred years should change much over the next century.

So, Afghanistan (and environs), the Horn of Africa, Caucasus. Maybe the Balkans will kick off again, but they are a lot less remote and more easily dealt with.

There will also be the various festering nationalist resentments – Kurdistan, the Basques, even Ireland.

The problems in the Middle East are unlikely to be unresolved except with either the application of extreme violence by one side or a genuine settlement which satisfies all the concerned parties.

Look how long it took to sort out the tide of nationalism unleashed by the French Revolution, or the upheaval caused by the Wars of German Unification.

I would be looking towards the Med coastline as we have the possibilities of mass economic migrations from Africa.

Korea, an unknown quantity.

It could be central Asia, but if Russia and China decide there will be peace on the earth there, it would be bloody and grim for a while and then deadly silent thereafter

A collapsed and fragmented Pakistan would be a good bet, especially if they had a nuclear exchange with India before they fragment

Indonesia is always in the running, especially if China starts to flex her muscles locally

South America – many countries looking to make ties with the Russians,some with communism itself (China, Korea), the drug wars/problems. It could become a big problem, and it's right on the USAs doorstep so to speak. Imagine if a majority of the South American countries cosied up with Russia…………..

Mongolia.

The US has supplied Mongolia with training and and money to improve their military and infrastructure. A former Russian air base in the region is of great interest to the US due to its proximity both to China and N. Korea. The US is building on an already close relationship with Mongolia to establish the country as a speedbump to impede Chinese expansionism in the region.

The Mongolian people have a long standing animosity towards the Chinese, who continue to practice "Imperialism by the Plow" by encouraging farmers to encroach into Mongolian territory.

All that said, I doubt seriously if the US would intervene militarily if China rolled into Mongolia under current conditions – but 50 years from now, conditions might change . . .

Trying not to get politicial here. But what about the American Midwest. Less family farms, Big Auto closing down, Canada decides to sieze its land back, The USA fights back, Some unknown countries send touble makers to start up uprisings. (aliens and zombies)

The Moon or Canada.

As the middle east depletes its oil reserves,the shift will see Asia,specifically Vietnam/Indonesia as the next place to dice with.Had not 9/11 occurred and the red herring been thrown out, mid east /far asia was 50/50 choice.The excellent pbs frontline report this week hints at an ever expanding war which will take us where ever global interests are not 100% secure.So it seems natural that might be Pakistan ,Islamic fundametalist reaction to the
Chinese crack down on the Uighurs,and any bordering ex Soviet central asian republic.

"even Ireland"

Owww, that's a tasty one! How about an independent Scotland or Wales?

Well Caribe has got it right and water will be the biggest resource that will draw far more attention than oil.

Plus in the next 100 years war will more than likely change from the lets not try to kill civilians and get back to the old fashion they are either with us or against us and if they are against us them they die.

But if you want to know where the next major set of conflicts will take place then look no farther than Pakistan and Afghanistan.

I vote Moon.

I agree that Pakistan could be a flash point. They have a joint fighter program with China. The Chinese financed the program in US$ which the smart Chinese got the Pakistanis to agree to pay back in local currency. Pakistan thinks it is on to a good thing but they are just paying to be the front line in a conflict with India or the west.

They are somewhat hit and miss (India). Most of their problems aside from the normal ones (I'm sorry General, we just can' get the ray gun to work under battlefield conditions) seems to be related to how the armed forces set out their specifications, then change then every half hour, which never helps any slow development process (then decide to plump for a load of Russian gear contrary to their own specifications which of course I'm sure has nothing to do with private chats with arms sellers). Its quite slow as they are also inordinately keen on doing everything themselves, unlike say Pakistan which is happy for the Chinese to fill in the gaps and colour in the designs, which slows development.
Saying that they have in the past been rather good with what they've got and despite a curious system of officer advancement have had their moments of brilliance.
Certainly in the last war with Pakistan they beat the arguably far superior Pakistan air force by the simple expedient or launching a horde of older planes against their airfields.

What about fragmentation of existing super states rather than an oil rush. What if China or USA or russian went down into a nasty civil war ?

If any of those went inward, things could kick off in neighbouring states or those who figured they could make a move while the big states attention was elsewhere.

Phil

Well Pakistan should be glad that most Indian's are fairly peace loving.

Because when you got 600+ million men which is over 6x more than Pakistan then a war of attrition is not something you want to get involved in.

Indonesia and Vietnam because of the oil reserves found in pacific basin therein.Water will be big soon,then we Canadians will have to be armed to the teeth.We have a sacred
defense learned from Suvarov ,a
lesser developed nation should never attempt to liberate a higher ordered one ,if it hopes to preserve integrity and efficiency.

The new graveyard of empires is the same as the old one: the Budget.

Good ideas all. keep 'em coming.

"Hey Chortle, I've been reading about India's Military Tech, being less than top of the line.
Any thoughts on that."

From what I have read, they have a joint Tank project currently with Russia. I dont recall the current designation of it but IIRC, it is an upgraded/improved version of the T-90.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-90

"What about fragmentation of existing super states rather than an oil rush. What if China or USA or russian went down into a nasty civil war?"

I thought about gaming this too (with Russian civil war). I decided instead to make my near-future campaign post-Russian Civil War however when Russia is unified under a charasmatic Dictator who promisses Russia will return to the glory (and size) of old; which in turn will lead to Russia vrs Georgia, Kazachstan, Turkey (!), Chechnya (again!) and Poland and the Ukraine(to name but a few). Should make for good NF gaming fun.

Thnx again for all of the input.

I can't say "Country", but I can say "Continent", and that continues to be the international suck hole known as Africa…
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS and RUBLES, among others have gone into their along with men, equipment, aid, programs, assitance, and all for naught…

The continent is like a sow that eats and eats and eats and always wants more, more, more, and you get really nothing in return but more of the same….

The continent is like a sow that eats and eats and eats and always wants more, more, more, and you get really nothing in return but more of the same….

The biggest single guzzler of foreign aid, however, is Iraq. Not to mention lives and military money.

If oil becomes somewhat outmoded then water should be the biggest valuable resource. Think of the impact that no reliance on oil would have on geo-politics. Countries in the Middle East would have no hold on the West. Small players like Chavez would blow away. I agree about Africa. It's a vast blackhole for resources. Tribal attitudes, greed and lack of education has proven devestating for much of the continent. It's a shame since there is so much a functional Africa could contribute.

Thanks,

John

Water is the next resource even if and when oil ceases to be .All the more reasons for fear in the fresh water blessed west.If an old republican charge of irrigating Americas S west with great lakes water ,Ie .lake mich purely american,not subject to rush -bagot or conventional law occurs ,the great lakes basin would drop 5 metres fast.This would be channelling away the saint lawrence seaway.