"Another Question on Odds" Topic

I asked about the increase in success percentages when throwing more than one six-sider and requiring a five or better.

During that question, I mentioned that when throwing one six-sider I preferred to throw two, designating the desired die.

Now that I know the odds increase from 33% to 55.6%, I have two additional questions:

1) What are the odds that the five or six will appear on the designated die? 50% on the guess, but how does that change the percentage of receiving the desired result on the desired die?

2) Am I a sleezebag now that I know it has nothing to do with the dice bumping together and exchanging pips?

Conversely, am I now and was I before a sleezebag, that fact having nothing to do with rolling dice or gaming in general?

It's more than likely I'll knock it off now that I know it gives me a statistical advantage, but I'm looking at others' opinions.

Will this cause others to roll two dice? Will it cause house rules to prevent it?

Okay, technically, that's five questions.

JW

I don't get it.
If the odds of rolling a 5 or 6 on a single six-sided die is 33.3% then throwing two dice and designating one as the single six-sided die requiring a 5 or 6, the odds are still 33.3% of rolling a 5 or 6 on a single six-sided die.

example: I have one red six-sided die and fifteen thousand blue six-sided dice. The odds of rolling a 5 or 6 on the red ONE is still 33.3% wether I throw the red ONE and a blue one or the red ONE and up to fifteen thousand of the blue ones.

I'm with Ultra Ork.

"Now that I know the odds increase from 33% to 55.6%"

The increased probability is the probability of rolling a 5 or 6 on EITHER die, not a particular "designated" one.

As UltraOrk says, I don't get it either.

I'm confused as well.

If you pick up two dice; a red die and a white die. Call which color is going to be the 'designated' die; say the white die. Roll both dice. Then look for the result on the white 'designated' die then your odds are 1/6.

But if you wait to choose the 'designated' die until the die is thrown then you are clearly and outlandishly cheating. I couldn't imagine anyone allowing you to do this once without stopping you.

Now that I know the odds increase from 33% to 55.6%

The odds of either die being a 5 or 6 is 55.6%

Made up of:
-- 22.2% chance only the designated dice will be 5/6
-- 22.2% chance the only non-designated dice will be 5/6
-- 11.1% chance that they both will be 5/6

If you roll more than the number of dice needed during a game – some call it cheating – others will ask you to reroll the correct number of dice, and others won't care. I happen to be in the middle – re-roll the correct number of dice and move on. It doesn't change your odds one bit as stated above. And rolling MORE than the number of dice required does nothing but annoy the rest of us who roll the correct number of dice and don't complain that we have too few dice to roll. Why bother with coming up with excuses to roll more dice?

Do you pull the old "switcheroo" and say that the designated die is red and then roll a red die with white pips and a black die with red pips and claim when the black die with red pips comes up 5 or 6, that it was the designated die? This is the problem with rolling more dice than required – you can be accused of cheating. Rolling the correct number of dice means you can't be accused of cheating as each die must roll the predicate number for success.

Ok…

These are independent events if i am reading this right. I /think/ what JackWhite is saying is that he throws 2 dice, red and white. While they are rolling around, he calls RED or WHITE. if that die comes up 5-6, he gets a success, whatever the success is. If that die comes up 1-4, he gets no success.

2 chances in 6 are 1/3 or 33%.

The calling of the die has no bearing on the matter unless 2 successes (5-6 on both dice) negate the result.

So long as he calls the die before they both stop rolling, the events are independent. So, there really is no need to roll a second die. It has no bearing on the odds.

The answer to the next question is that you have exactly 50% chance of calling the die with a 5-6 assuming that it is a success (a 5-6).

The last part…this does not make you a sleazebag in any case. If I am a game master, I am going to tell you to roll 1 die (and only 1 die) and tell me if you get a 5-6.
It's not a house rule. It's a fact of life! :)

Guess they don't teach about probability in school, huh?

"Never tell me the odds."

I have met people at conventions that do not like rolling only one Die, but prefer to roll two.

In that case I would suggest doing what the convention attendee did, he used a blank die to avoid confusion and hard feelings.

link

JackWhite: … when throwing one six-sider I preferred to throw two, designating the desired die.

No offense, but that is a really annoying habit.

Now that I know the odds increase from 33% to 55.6% …

In case it wasn't clear from the other posts above, the odds don't increase at all except when you change the probability test from "5 or 6 on this single die" to "5 or 6 on either this die or this other die".

What are the odds that the five or six will appear on the designated die?

On the designated die? It's only one die. 1/6 chance of 5 + 1/6 chance of 6 = 2/6 = 1/3 chance ~ 33%.

Am I a sleezebag now … ?

If you are scrupulously honest in this practice, you are not a sleazebag, but you are still a player with a very annoying habit.

Seriously. If the test calls for one die and you throw two, it doesn't matter how many times you explain you are ignoring the off-colored die. The other player still has to watch to make sure you read the right one. You still have to watch to make sure you read the right one.

I'm sure it doesn't sound like a big deal to you. Trust me, it is. Get a dice cup or something.

No one will visit me in jail if I kill everybody who annoys me. I thought this was the deja vu thread. I've never heard of this practice before, but like the blank die idea. Billy Pilgrim called…

A number of my fellow gamers hold two dice in their hand so that they get the satisfying "click" of die against die, and then only ever throw the one. It tends to initially confuse people when they hear the two dice in the player's hand, but nobody's ever been bothered by the practice, really.

I'm with Don.

And FWIW, I would have a lot less problem with shaking 2 and rolling 1 than rolling 2 and calling 1.

I better apologize. I was too harsh in my post above.

In D20 games like D&D, I often throw a small handful of dice in which sometimes some results are ignored. Two examples:

1) Wizard throwing a spell with a bonus effect. I throw a green D20 + a green D6 + a red D6. The green D20 is the probability test (like spell "attack" versus target REFlex save). If successful, the green D6 is the effect (the spell damage); the red D6 is a bonus effect (special ability bonus to spell damage, etc). If spectacularly successful (a 20 on D20 say), it may be a "critical" and the base effect may be doubled or maximized -- this is only the green D6 result.

But … If the green D20 is unsuccessful, the other dice are ignored.

2) Fighter with two attacks, second with a penalty. I throw green D20 + green D8 + red D20 + red D8. D20s are probability tests ("to hit" with weapon) -- I say "red has penalty" or "red is second strike". Green D20 is read, if successful, green D8 is read -- that's first attack damage. Red D20 is read, penalty applied, if still successful, red D8 is read -- that's second attack damage.

But … If the green or red D20 is unsuccessful, other dice of the same color are ignored.

Other players look at me oddly the first time they see this; after they get it, they applaud me for speeding up play and some adopt the practice themselves.

So … I guess you throwing red D6 + white D6 and announcing "white die does nothing!" is a variant of the same practice.

Sorry for being so harsh and judgemental. And hypocritical.

I would also be annoyed** if someone was supposed to roll 1d6 for a result but rolled 2d6 even if the two dice were totally different and they announced this ahead of time.

As to rolling to-hit dice and possible damage dice together (even before you know the to-hit dice actually hit), I also do this and applaud those who do since it generally speeds up the game.

**I do realize that if this is the biggest thing in a day that annoys me, I'm doing good!!!

By throwing two dice, my odds of throwing a five or six is increased. That was determined in another question I had asked on odds.

If my odds of throwing a five or six on a specific die reverts to 33%, then it doesn't matter if I throw a thousand die. I am only interested in the result of the single die I designated.

If an increase in the number of die doesn't increase the overall success ratio, then I'll keep doing it. I do like the click of extra dice banging together.

My concern was that one die gives a to-hit probability of one in three and with two dice, the to-hit probability becomes five in nine, an increase of over 22% and by rolling two dice with one being designated would result in a to-hit ratio of, maybe 44%, averaging the two possibilities.

If that had been the case, I wouldn't do it. If the whole thing is a washout and it reverts back to 33%, I'm not bothered by it. It's just a personal preference.

Now to-hit and possible-damage dice together, I wouldn't do.

I wouldn't like to see the damage I "would" have done. If I miss, I miss. Move on. Nothing more to see there.

JW

Jovian1

Wow! I'm not that complex. I roll the same two die the whole game and keep the designated die the same.

JW

JackWhite By throwing two dice, my odds of throwing a five or six is increased. That was determined in another question I had asked on odds.

That was a different question, asking if you when trying to get a 5 or 6 on one die, you could throw two dice and use either result; it's basically allowing a reroll of the result of a single die. Obviously being able to reroll changes odds.

If my odds of throwing a five or six on a specific die reverts to 33%, then it doesn't matter if I throw a thousand die.

You are correct. One die is one die. Probability doesn't change even if you throw a thousand other dice alongside (though they may make the die in question harder to read in the pack).

I do like the click of extra dice banging together.

Your choice then.

I wouldn't like to see the damage I "would" have done.

Again, there's no effect on the probability of the first die if you ignore the other dice. Worrying about what you "would" have done is all in your head. Dice can't read your mind.