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"What are the odds? Lucky 13, Not !!!" Topic


10 Posts

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510 hits since 4 Oct 2008
©1994-2026 Bill Armintrout
Comments or corrections?

Top Gun Ace04 Oct 2008 5:55 p.m. PST

I imagine you've all heard the old adage, "What happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas".

Apparently, no, and yes. Seems like the news doesn't stay unreported, but the participant may be staying locally for a few years, courtesy of the city.

And who says they don't provide comps like they used to in Vegas? A few years stay seems only fair.

Convicted on the 13th anniversary, to the day; on Sept. 13th, after a 13 day trial, and a 13 hour deliberation:

link

Wonder what the odds are of all those 13's popping up?

The Monstrous Jake04 Oct 2008 6:05 p.m. PST

Wonder what the odds are of all those 13's popping up?

Er… one in thirteen?

Top Gun Ace04 Oct 2008 6:11 p.m. PST

Of course, my analysis is probably flawed, but it looks to be higher than 1 in a Million, based upon the following:

13 years (x 365 days in a year) = 1/4785

x 30 number of days in an average month = 1/142,350

x 13 hours of deliberation (looked this one up, and came across a stat of 1.18 days for the average jury trial deliberation time – so, assuming that = approx. 9.6 hours, round off to 10, and divide into 13) = 1.3x, or = 1/185,055

x number of days the trial lasted (stats for that are 1 – 3 days being usual, so select a median of 2, and then divide that into 13, to get a multiplier of 6.5) = 1/1,202,858

Your mileage, and/or calculations may vary….. ;-)

Col Stone04 Oct 2008 6:31 p.m. PST

I'm too tired to make the maths, but TGA's closer to the truth
1 on a d6 is one in six, two 1's are one in thirtysix..and so on

Personal logo John the OFM Supporting Member of TMP04 Oct 2008 10:16 p.m. PST

Simply ignore all the times the number "13" does NOT crop up.
Like 12 jurors.
The year 2008.
The floor of the courthouse where the trial took place.

You can always group the numbers together that you like, and spin a theory from that. Scientists do it all the time.

As for rolling doubles on 2D6, the odds are 1 in six, if you don't care what the numbers are. The odds are 1 in 6 that the second roll will match the first.

Col Stone05 Oct 2008 6:42 a.m. PST
Top Gun Ace05 Oct 2008 8:59 a.m. PST

The difficulty comes from determining what the overall possible combinations could be, e.g. the max. number of hours/days the jurors might have deliberated, or the length of the trial.

I just used average numbers for those.

Personal logo Nashville Supporting Member of TMP05 Oct 2008 8:28 p.m. PST

Orenthal James Simpson

Letters in his first and second name add up to ?

JackWhite06 Oct 2008 6:15 p.m. PST

Too bad he didn't get a fair trial again. The prosecutor was allowed to claim that the whole episode actually related to the murder of his ex-wife.

Objection, Your Honor. Self-serving and prejudicial. Incompetent, irrelevent and immaterial.

Sustained.

That said, he should have just kept his mouth shut and kept a low profile for the rest of his life. He just couldn't stand that he was no longer in the lime light.

(John The OFM): Limelight or lime light? (How's that for a thread highjacking?)

JW

Top Gun Ace07 Oct 2008 1:44 p.m. PST

I figured he would trip up at some point, but was rather surprised at how, and when…..

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