Lentulus | 08 Aug 2008 6:11 a.m. PST |
Looks like a serious scuffle starting up: link Any idea of Georgian force levels and equipment? How about local Russian forces? Would TO&Es still be close to WARPAC cold war, or have they evolved over the years? This could make an interesting self-contained campaign. |
CmdrKiley | 08 Aug 2008 6:23 a.m. PST |
Judging from some of the photos of Georgian Troops I saw in some of the articles, looks like they're armed with some pretty western looking gear. link |
Pictors Studio | 08 Aug 2008 6:23 a.m. PST |
It could also spiral out to be something much bigger. Given anti-hegemony ideology in china and russia this could be something pretty big. Or not of course. But certainly there are a lot of what if potentials here for NATO feeding troops in. Or a temporary settlement with divided zones with NATO and Russian peacekeepers each aided one side on the sly. |
McKinstry | 08 Aug 2008 6:26 a.m. PST |
I actually find this very scary. The Georgians should be fighting out of their weight class but the Russian record over the last 30 years is pretty miserable. This would seem to have the potential to spiral out of control fairly quickly. I would expect Georgia to be primarily old WARPAC but with a leavening of western technology such as drones and some of the electronics. The Russians have spent a decent chunk of their new oil wealth on improving their forces but much of the hardware and training is still kludge. It is always noteworthy that as with any Russian military adventure, the forces may or may not be that great but there will usually be a lot of them with a lot more available. |
Lentulus | 08 Aug 2008 6:35 a.m. PST |
"with a lot more available" If I were running a campaign on something like this, I would definately put the local russian commander under victory point pressure to not ask for re-enforcement. |
Doms Decals | 08 Aug 2008 6:46 a.m. PST |
Georgian heavy kit is still mainly former Soviet (T-72s, MiGs and Sukhois etc.) but they've had NATO assistance for some years now, especially US training, and have frequently deployed alongside NATO or US forces – they're one of the few countries to have sent troops to Iraq, for instance, as well as deployments to Kosovo and Afghanistan. |
Darby E | 08 Aug 2008 7:13 a.m. PST |
M-4s, G-36s
I'd say that was fairly Western kit. Ammo must be a nightmare for them. With Georgia not being a "defacto" member of NATO, I'd be surprised if NATO stepped in by sending troops. More likely it'll be negotiation aid, with a bit of pressure on the UN. Though Russia seems to be pretty good at the UN pressure too
This will most likely remain a "local" thing. |
Irish Marine | 08 Aug 2008 7:27 a.m. PST |
I saw some of them wearing MARPAT cammies. |
The G Dog | 08 Aug 2008 7:29 a.m. PST |
What the heck is that 8 wheeled SP gun (which the beeb refers to as an APC) link |
Lentulus | 08 Aug 2008 7:37 a.m. PST |
One of these czech beasties, I think: link |
Doms Decals | 08 Aug 2008 7:41 a.m. PST |
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Proto Clown | 08 Aug 2008 7:45 a.m. PST |
Wondered that too. According to another website I found it on, it is either a 152mm SPGun called the DANA or a 155mm SP Gun called Zuzana and they are produced in the Czech Republic. link |
Klebert L Hall | 08 Aug 2008 7:49 a.m. PST |
Mostly Soviet heavy equipment and aircraft. My bet is going to be that the Russians get bogged down and it degenerates into a stalemate, but Russia is such a wild card these days. Usually, it seems like their troops are poorly trained and motivated and they take a pounding. However, it should really be a walkover for them – if they actually happen to have their together for once, Georgia shouldn't have a chance. The interesting/worrysome factor is that a lot of Black Sea states have various agreements with Georgia (a fairly pro-western country). I doubt that anybody will put their nose in, but if (for example) Turkey were to intervene this could get big, fast. Way to upstage the Olympics, Russia! Do you suppose the Russians will finally stop denying that they shot down that drone, now? -Kle. |
Klebert L Hall | 08 Aug 2008 7:52 a.m. PST |
Given anti-hegemony ideology in china and russia I would tend to say "rhetoric", not "ideology". they're all for their own hegemony, for instance. -Kle. |
Windward | 08 Aug 2008 8:10 a.m. PST |
I'm pretty sure NATO is going to sit this one out. There will be a lot of hand wringing, but not much else. The Georgian's are in for a tough time. If Europe makes too much noise, the Russians will turn off the gas tap for a few days (Unless convenient Georgia or Chechen Terrorists, happen to damage the pipeline, so the Russian's can say; "We told you so"). Not a good deal in any light. Another power play by Putin. |
Arrigo | 08 Aug 2008 8:28 a.m. PST |
Uhm, I fear that NATO will not sit out
Seems USMC units are already deployed in gerogia, georiga is important for caucasion and tranc caucasian oil deliveries and NATO can't afford Putin to demonstrate we can't support our friends in the region
he thenk that Putin power play is directed agaisnt us
fear he wants a little short victorious war with a first class opponent
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Rod Langway | 08 Aug 2008 9:14 a.m. PST |
Arrigo, Don't know anything about USMC units in Georgia (could you provide a link?) There were 1,000 US Army personnel in Georgia in mid-July for a joint excercise with other Caucausian states, but I believe they are gone by now, though advisors have been training the Georgian army for sometime and are still in place. Regarding the conflict, the main point where this could seriously escalate is when Russian forces enter the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali where they will be face to face with the Georgian army on the ground. If this turns into a major ground conflict, that will be considerably worse than the air and artillery attacks we have seen thus far, and casualties will mount on both sides in an urban battle. I hope and pray that hostilities end soon, before that comes to pass, or we see any further escalation into a wider conflict
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Only Warlock | 08 Aug 2008 9:29 a.m. PST |
USMC Training Cadre was based at the Air base the Russians hit last night. Fox News has video of Georgian MLRS Fire bombarding the Lead Russian elements. In addition the Israelis have nearly a 1000-man Security force in-country helping the Georgians. Apparently the Israelis are fighting with the lead Georgian elements. Armor and Air have been committed on both sides. It's gonna get nasty. |
Only Warlock | 08 Aug 2008 9:30 a.m. PST |
I think I need to buy that new Mongoose Battlefield Revolution re-release ruleset! |
Dremel Man | 08 Aug 2008 9:31 a.m. PST |
I find it absolutely fascinating that the Ossetians are an ethnic group of Iranian descent. Also fascinating that the majority are Sunni Islamics. So in effect we have: Ethnic Cleansing Border Conflict Middle Eastern Connections Oil Implications Sabre Rattling Fun Fun Fun!!! |
Barin1 | 08 Aug 2008 9:44 a.m. PST |
Don't see it as "fun" at all. That idiot Saakashvili shelled the city in pretty Jugoslavian manner or – in the same manner as Russians did in Chechnya. However this time nobody condemns the agressor. And at the moment Georgians are kicked from ossetian capital. Consider this – this is the country and the president GWB wanted to be in NATO. If they were in NATO we'd probably have a nice world war by now. |
Dremel Man | 08 Aug 2008 10:08 a.m. PST |
"Don't see it as "fun" at all. " I was painfully, mind-numbingly obviously being ironic
Just connect the dots and see the connections and start building your own geo-political conspiracy agenda.
Is it too much of a stretch to think that this could suck in Iran as part of a wider regional conflict? |
Chalfant | 08 Aug 2008 10:10 a.m. PST |
"alongside NATO or US forces – they're one of the few countries to have sent troops to Iraq, for instance, as well as deployments to Kosovo and Afghanistan." Third largest deployment, it seems. Doubt that will remain the case. Not sure I would agree with you completely, Barin, but I think you have a valid point
its not exactly what NATO may be looking for. It'd be something like Italy deciding to retake part of Libya
and where that would lead NATO. Only Warlock: "In addition the Israelis have nearly a 1000-man Security force in-country helping the Georgians. Apparently the Israelis are fighting with the lead Georgian elements." Fighting alongside of the Georgians, or fighting against the Georgians? I took you to mean the former, but I find that particularly curious. Obviously, if attacked you'd assume they would defend themselves, but as a part of the offense? |
Waco Joe | 08 Aug 2008 10:11 a.m. PST |
If you need a program to tell the players here is a nice map that shows the entanglement: picture |
11th ACR | 08 Aug 2008 10:16 a.m. PST |
Wow, I have never seen a MRB fight a MRB. This could look interesting. |
Barin1 | 08 Aug 2008 10:19 a.m. PST |
It might be a nice wargaming setting later on, but I'm very upset now. I know quite a nymber of people in Ossetia and in Georgia. One of my colleagues is Ossetian, and he has absolutely no idea what happened with his relatives. Our service engineer should be going to Georgia for start-up and I'm happy that he wasn't able to get his tickets in time
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Arrigo | 08 Aug 2008 10:26 a.m. PST |
I think the israeli are involved beacuse they have some long range plan for ythe region and have a stake in it's oil. Also seems the tensions were increasing and proably the Russian were trying to do something (too quick mobilizations
it was a prepared thing on both sides
this is a show down). |
11th ACR | 08 Aug 2008 10:30 a.m. PST |
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GeoffQRF | 08 Aug 2008 10:32 a.m. PST |
Careful with the comments guys. I'd like this thread to stay up. |
Only Warlock | 08 Aug 2008 10:34 a.m. PST |
The Israelis are fighting against the Russians alongside the Georgians. At least from a few reports I've seen. |
Waco Joe | 08 Aug 2008 10:35 a.m. PST |
There is a corresponding conversation taking place in the Blue Fez for those more politically inclined. |
Windward | 08 Aug 2008 10:36 a.m. PST |
Of course the other shoe will drop, if and when the Russian manage to capture Ossetia. Will the Georgian's (UN & NATO) let it drop and accept it, or will the Russians push on for Greater Russia, if the Georgian's (UN & NATO) say no? |
aegiscg47 | 08 Aug 2008 10:39 a.m. PST |
I think that the Russian armored/mech division that is rolling in right now is probably the only combat ready division in that theater, so the Russians would have to ship in additional assets or mobilize them for a protracted war, so that gives the Georgians a limited advantage in that they need to score some success quickly before they get swamped in numbers. They are seriously outclassed in the air, with only two squadrons of SU-25s, two squadrons of Mig-21s, and a lot of choppers. The ground forces appear(and I stress appear) to be around four brigades of varying size and composition, although at last count(2007) they had around 150 T-72s. Personally, I think that the Georgians are biting off more than they can chew if this goes on for a few months, but for a limited engagement(say a few weeks then a ceasefire) they may do pretty good. |
11th ACR | 08 Aug 2008 11:19 a.m. PST |
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Top Gun Ace | 08 Aug 2008 11:32 a.m. PST |
Lots of reactive armor on the Russian tanks. I imagine we will find out if it is any good. What is the tall pod-thingy (sorry for the lack of a more technical term) on the turrets? link A thermal, or other sensor pod? I imagine this is most likely it, given its precarious placement, which would be superb for turret down viewing. One of those laser-dazzlers I keep reading about to help defeat ATGM's? Probably less likely, due to it being easily damaged by small arms fire, since it is so precariously placed. Other? |
Top Gun Ace | 08 Aug 2008 11:35 a.m. PST |
Reports are the Georgians have downed at least four Russian jets. Obviously, no way to independently verify that, until we see the wreckage, and even then it will be difficult. I did see a photo of a couple of guys with shoulder-fired SAM's standing guard in a field. The caption read that they were Georgian. I imagine IFF will be a nightmare, especially for tanks and APC's on the ground. Possibly less of an issue with the aircraft, since it seems Georgia's air force is using older kit. |
Arrigo | 08 Aug 2008 11:36 a.m. PST |
The queation is waht we can and want to send
even a couple of NATO battalion and fighter squadrons would shift the balance. As I have said this maybe the caucasus showdown. Also , if the Georgians had initiated this they have consluted Washington? If the russian instead have started the ball, i think they are for something big. |
Editor in Chief Bill | 08 Aug 2008 12:24 p.m. PST |
What are the white helmets shown here? link |
GeoffQRF | 08 Aug 2008 12:34 p.m. PST |
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Top Gun Ace | 08 Aug 2008 12:36 p.m. PST |
Reports I have read state that Georgia started it. Not sure if that is accurate, since both sides blame the other frequently. I imagine a KH-11 satellite, or more modern system may have the true answer
.., not that it will be revealed, of course. |
Only Warlock | 08 Aug 2008 12:54 p.m. PST |
Here's the Situation as I understand it: Georgia launched an offensive into the region, which is on the border of Russia, to quell a local uprising of pro-Russian militants. This was after Russia launched a series of small actions including shooting down a Georgian Surveillance Drone in Georgian Airspace (Probably to mask Russian troop moves along the border) and a group or Russian Peacekeepers which got in a battle with a Georgian Forces the other day. After Georgia moved in, Russian forces pushed across the border and into the province in order to support the separatists against Georgia. This against the backdrop of Georgia's desire to join NATO and to act as a "Missile Shield" site for US Ballistic missile interceptors. In addition, there is a major Oil Pipeline that is newly constructed that runs right along this province's border which the Russians tried desperately to block. This pipeline lessens the stranglehold that Russia has on European oil imports (I'm sure some of you remember Russia cutting off the Oil during Winter to Europe a few years back) |
11th ACR | 08 Aug 2008 12:56 p.m. PST |
"What are the white helmets shown here?" They look to be all wearing surplus U.S. K-Pots. The Desert Tan (White) are ones that were painted for Desert Op's |
Dragon Gunner | 08 Aug 2008 1:03 p.m. PST |
@Cold Warrior You have more reasons to add the Dana to your collection other than the Toyota wars. |
Editor in Chief Bill | 08 Aug 2008 1:10 p.m. PST |
How on earth did the Russians manage to deploy via a highway tunnel? Wouldn't that be the easiest thing in the world to prevent? |
Waco Joe | 08 Aug 2008 1:19 p.m. PST |
I would imagine their peacekeepers held the Ossetia side of the tunnel. |
Top Gun Ace | 08 Aug 2008 1:20 p.m. PST |
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Custor | 08 Aug 2008 1:21 p.m. PST |
As the locals are asking for support against the Georgians..then it should be quite easy for Russia to provide aid. |
Barin1 | 08 Aug 2008 1:24 p.m. PST |
- the drone was shot over Osetia, but since Georgia thinks that it is their territory, they claimed that the evil Russians did it in their souvereign air. - according to ceasefire agreement back in 90s no planes can enter the zone where the drone was shot. - Georgia most likely consulted state dept that US will block any UN security council resolution (that's what happened in the morning when Russian proposal to stop fire immediately was rejected) - Saakashvili desperately wants to involve USA in his own affairs, and he knows it should be done when GWB is still in the office. - His attack is a win/win scenario – he either destroys Ossetia or will be playing an innocent victim, pointing to Russians that beat "the true beacon of liberty". That will help him to get a faster NATO integration. However if to fullfill his schemes means destroying the cities without any care for civilian population smth. is very wrong. Give me a reason why it is different to Jugoslavia or Chechnya. Most of the Ossetians are also citizens of Russia, and I doubt that USA will sit idly if someone will be bombing their citizens. |
McKinstry | 08 Aug 2008 1:24 p.m. PST |
Those look like a desert tan 'Fritz' type helmet. |
McKinstry | 08 Aug 2008 1:38 p.m. PST |
My concern is that the Russians pull their usual and get their hands handed to them early which just makes them more intransigent and forces Putin & Co into a brute force deployment to save face. NATO (a bit) and the US ( a lot) have a fairly big investment in Georgia and the potential for superpower with questionable decision making verus former-superpower with historic inferiority complex are really really scary. I really hope the initial spasm of violence is enough to force both parties into a pause and negotiate mode but at the moment, this feels like the international equivalent of 'mine's bigger than yours so nyah'. |